Ser ut til at Blu-Ray taper

[XtaZ]

LINK

 

 

I think that, for all of us, the battle for the next generation of DVD technology has gotten really old. This is especially true for the studios, which are well off their revenue targets.

 

This week, we'll look at why DreamWorks and Paramount backed HD-DVD, effectively assuring that Blu-ray will lose whether HD-DVD wins or not -- and it may still not win either.

 

Blu-ray: RIP

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) to hedge its bets and go with both formats.

 

However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony (NYSE: SNE) would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market, effectively giving it to Nintendo and Microsoft.

 

Given my history with Sony, you'd think I'd know better and would have assumed it would be that stupid. That likely would have resulted in a lot less pain all around.

 

PlayStation3 Impact

Not only was Blu-ray too expensive, the technology wasn't as far along as Sony led us to believe. The delays not only make the PS3 too expensive; they made it late. That was effectively a one-two punch, knocking Sony out of the lead so far in the game console business. Now, Sony is dead last by a significant margin.

 

This means that developers, instead of favoring Sony with their best stuff, are now concentrating on the Xbox first, and increasingly the Wii . That's because both have more homes, and thus represent a greater revenue opportunity, than Sony does.

 

So instead of the PS3 ensuring Blu-ray's success, right now it appears that Blu-ray may have effectively killed the PS3, at least in terms of market leadership. We'll have to wait until the PS4 before Sony has a chance to come back.

 

Not a Viable Data Storage Option

Blu-ray's biggest advantage is storage capacity; however, storage has grown so fast that you can get a 750 GB Seagate external drive for less than US$250.

 

To back that up on a 25 GB Blu-ray recorder would take 30 Blu-ray disks and more time than I think anyone in their right mind would accept. Neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray are likely to become backup platforms, and most of the data we move still fits easily on a standard dual-layer DVD.

 

With increasingly high-speed networks, people are using things like BitTorrent to use big files or portable high-capacity hard drives. So as transport, they aren't particularly practical either.

 

The high-volume home for HD Optical disks remains as a replacement for the DVD. The studios, which are not doing anywhere near as well as they'd like, desperately need something to drive revenues higher.

 

Both Could Fail

That won't happen until both one standard is clear and the related players drop below $200. They need both to happen or the market won't move. Currently, Blu-ray is running at more than twice the target price on players and HD-DVD is about 15 percent over target. In the case of the Xbox 360 accessory, it's actually about 15 percent under target.

 

This means that if the studios have any chance this year of getting a large ramp -- and I would include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) , Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and anyone else that sells HD movies -- it has to be HD-DVD. Blu-ray simply can't get there.

 

I think all realize, or should, time isn't unlimited either. We are already talking about what comes after HD-DVD and Blu-ray, and scalers are getting so good that increasingly many are arguing that you don't need either now.

 

In other words, while Blu-ray can't win, in my view, there is still an excellent chance the market will simply bypass both if one doesn't ramp to high volume this year. In that instance, everyone loses.

 

Cause for Change

I think Paramount and DreamWorks saw this outcome and are trying to avoid it. While they did get an estimated $250 million incentive to move, that doesn't change the result. The studio execs likely realize if revenues don't improve, many of them may not be around by this time next year. Unemployment is a rather impressive motivator for change.

 

So, as of right now, I think it is reasonably obvious Blu-ray lost. The only question is whether HD-DVD will be allowed to win; and the decision may be up to Time Warner or Disney (NYSE: DIS) and not Sony or Toshiba .

 

If both lose, the long-term strategic fallout for Sony and Disney will be both impressive and memorable in terms of either company's influence going forward -- in fact, for Sony, I'm not sure things actually could get much worse.

Endret 29. august 2007 av XtaZ

[BlastyTrasty]

HD DVD ftw.

[Amored]

Lyst på HD-DVD-spiller jeg...

[XtaZ]

Er det noen som vet om det fortsatt følger med 5 HD DVDer når man kjøper en HD DVD addon spiller til 360?

[Kjeksmestern]

Heia HD DVD! Er HD DVD-drevet til 360 noe bra egentlig, frister med en sånn.

[XtaZ]

The Current State Of The Blu-Ray Format

[Jochi]

Det var vel bare 720p\1080i på Xbox HD-DVD spilleren?

Har vurdert å kjøpe den, både til bruk i Elite og PC.

 

Men oppskalerer den bildet bedre på vanlige dvder i HD-DVD spilleren enn i xbox spilleren?