Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[bojangles]

Endret 11. september av bojangles

[Dragavon]

Sitat

 

Russland presser stadig på med sin offensiv i det østlige Ukraina samtidig som de forsøker å kjempe mot de ukrainske soldatene i Kursk-regionen.

For å opprettholde begge frontene trenger Moskva flere soldater, mange flere soldater.

- Denne jakta på nye soldater virker desperat. Når de trenger 50 000 til 60 000 soldater og henter hjem 200 soldater fra Burkina Faso, forteller det sitt om hvilke problemer Russland har, sier sjefsforsker Tor Bukkvoll ved Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI) til Dagbladet.

 

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/putins-store-mareritt/81907886

[VifteKopp]

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/09/10/russia-demographic-crisis-low-birth-rate-ukraine-war/

“This is catastrophic for the future of the nation,” Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in July, according to AFP. “It [birth rates] is now at a terribly low level — 1.4 (births per woman). This is comparable to European countries, Japan and so on.”

-----------------------------

Antall fødsler i Russland faller videre. Dette er jo på mange måter en demografisk krig. Tallene er ikke noe bedre for Ukraina, men siden Russlands militære doktrine baser seg på kjøtt til kverna så er de mer utsatt for at bassenget av tilgjengelige menn blir tommere og tommere for hvert år. 

[Snikpellik]

Hva Trump og Harris sa om Ukraina og Russlands angrepskrig i nattens debatt.

Trump:

Sitat

(...) If I were president it would have never started. If I were president Russia would have never, ever -- I know Putin very well. He would have never -- and there was no threat of it either, by the way, for four years. Have gone into Ukraine and killed millions of people when you add it up. Far worse than people understand what's going on over there. (...) Look at what's happening with the Houthis and Yemen. Look at what's going on in the Middle East. This would have never happened. I will get that settled and fast. And I'll get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended. If I'm President-Elect, I'll get it done before even becoming president.

Sitat

I want the war to stop (på spørsmål om han ønsker at Ukraina vinner krigen). I want to save lives that are being uselessly -- people being killed by the millions. It's the millions. It's so much worse than the numbers that you're getting, which are fake numbers. Look, we're in for 250 billion or more because they don't ask Europe, which is a much bigger beneficiary to getting this thing done than we are. They're in for $150 billion less because Biden and you don't have the courage to ask Europe like I did with NATO. They paid billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars when I said either you pay up or we're not going to protect you anymore. So that may be one of the reasons they don't like me as much as they like weak people. But you take a look at what's happening. We're in for 250 to 275 billion. They're into 100 to 150. They should be forced to equalize. With that being said, I want to get the war settled.

I know Zelenskyy very well and I know Putin very well. I have a good relationship. And they respect your president. Okay? They respect me. They don't respect Biden. How would you respect him? Why? For what reason? He hasn't even made a phone call in two years to Putin. Hasn't spoken to anybody. They don't even try and get it. That is a war that's dying to be settled. I will get it settled before I even become president. If I win, when I'm President-Elect, and what I'll do is I'll speak to one, I'll speak to the other, I'll get them together. That war would have never happened. And in fact when I saw Putin after I left, unfortunately left because our country has gone to hell, but after I left when I saw him building up soldiers, he did it after I left, I said oh, he must be negotiating. It must be a good strong point of negotiation. Well, it wasn't because Biden had no idea how to talk to him. He had no idea how to stop it. And now you have millions of people dead and it's only getting worse and it could lead to World War 3. Don't kid yourself, David. We're playing with World War 3. And we have a president that we don't even know if he's -- where is our president? We don't even know if he's a president.

Sitat

I think it's in the U.S. best interest to get this war finished and just get it done. All right. Negotiate a deal. Because we have to stop all of these human lives from being destroyed.

Sitat

Biden doesn't go after people because supposedly China paid him millions of dollars. He's afraid to do it. Between him and his son. They get all this money from Ukraine. They get all this money from all of these different countries. And then you wonder why is he so loyal to this one, that one Ukraine, China? Why is he? Why did he get 3 1/2 million dollars from the mayor of Moscow's wife? Why did he get -- why did she pay him 3 1/2 million dollars? This is a crooked administration, and they're selling our country down the tubes.

Harris:

Sitat

(...) It is well known that he said of Putin that he can do whatever the hell he wants and go into Ukraine. It is well known when that he said when Russia went into Ukraine it was brilliant. It is well known he exchanged love letters with Kim Jong un. And it is absolutely well known that these dictators and autocrats are rooting for you to be president again because they're so clear, they can manipulate you with flattery and favors. And that is why so many military leaders who you have worked with have told me you are a disgrace. That is why we understand that we have to have a president who is not consistently weak and wrong on national security including the importance of upholding and respecting in highest regard our military.

Sitat

I believe the reason that Donald Trump says that this war would be over within 24 hours is because he would just give it up. And that's not who we are as Americans.

Let's understand what happened here. I actually met with Zelenskyy a few days before Russia invaded, tried through force to change territorial boundaries to defy one of the most important international rules and norms, which is the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity. And I met with President Zelenskyy. I shared with him American intelligence about how he could defend himself. Days later I went to NATO's eastern flank, to Poland and Romania. And through the work that I and others did we brought 50 countries together to support Ukraine in its righteous defense. And because of our support, because of the air defense, the ammunition, the artillery, the javelins, the Abrams tanks that we have provided, Ukraine stands as an independent and free country.

If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now. And understand what that would mean. Because Putin's agenda is not just about Ukraine. Understand why the European allies and our NATO allies are so thankful that you are no longer president and that we understand the importance of the greatest military alliance the world has ever known, which is NATO. And what we have done to preserve the ability of Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians to fight for their Independence.

Otherwise, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv with his eyes on the rest of Europe. Starting with Poland. And why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor and what you think is a friendship with what is known to be a dictator who would eat you for lunch.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542

Endret 11. september av Snikpellik

[Delvis]

Dragavon skrev (1 time siden):

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/putins-store-mareritt/81907886

Vet ikke om jeg tok den. Jenta ble spurt om hvor lang skoleveien er, og rektor får panikk når hun skal svare på det. Hvorfor? Hva var farlig med det?

[Dragavon]

Delvis skrev (23 minutter siden):

Vet ikke om jeg tok den. Jenta ble spurt om hvor lang skoleveien er, og rektor får panikk når hun skal svare på det. Hvorfor? Hva var farlig med det?

Kva snakker du om?

[VifteKopp]

Delvis skrev (33 minutter siden):

Vet ikke om jeg tok den. Jenta ble spurt om hvor lang skoleveien er, og rektor får panikk når hun skal svare på det. Hvorfor? Hva var farlig med det?

Rektoren er redd for at jenta skal si noe som setter skolen i et dårlig lys, noe som setter Putin i et dårlig lys.

[50z]

torbjornen skrev (9 timer siden):

Om Biden i utgangspunktet var redd for "eskalering" har Russland og Iran med dette allereie eskalert. Og då blir jo dette ein naturleg konklusjon.

McCaul er forresten ingen kvensomhelst. Det var han som er republikanaren som i ei kongresshøyring av Blinken i mai peika på ISW sitt kart over trygge soner russarane kunne operere frå, og som sa at det ikkje var kongressen som hadde lagt restriksjonar på våpenstøtta.

Tenkte også at missilene fra Iran kunne være en avgjørende grunn å bruke, for å fjerne restriksjonene på vestlige våpen.

Håper inderlig dette skjer og at de får det i mengder som virkelig monner. Inkludert våpen som kan ta russiske jagerfly i lufta, slik at en får stoppet glide bomber etc.

[Lush]

Nedward skrev (4 timer siden):

Jeg er litt nysgjerrig på hvilken militær teknologi Russland har i dag, som Kina ikke har. Har et inntrykk av at Kina, som før ikke klarte å lage jetmotorer selv, har forbigått Russland på alle områder.

Etter min mening så handler det ikke så mye om teknologi lenger. Kanskje ubåt, missil teknologi, og stor skala våpen produksjon. Samt krigsøkonomi under sanksjoner.

Men den største verdien russland har etter min mening er utprøvde våpen systemer og ferdigheter/kompetanse. Både positiv og negativ.

Kina har en stor og moderne hær og våpen. Men har ikke den krigserfaringen fra doktrine til soldaten i en aktiv krig. 

Så det er her jeg mener russland har en størst verdi for Kina. Samt som alliert mot vesten. I Kinas egne ambisjoner og potensiell krig i framtiden.

[ForTheImperium]

Noen som tror denne krigen kan være over i slutten av dette året? Spådom: En russisk general som har litt vett og fornuft tar på seg ansvaret med å fjerne Putin. Sammen med en del lojale soldater stormer de Kremlin og avsetter galningene som styrer landet. 

Eller at Ukraina marsjerer videre hele veien til Moskva og oppdager at det russiske forsvaret har kollapset totalt. 

Endret 11. september av ForTheImperium

[KalleKanin]

Snikpellik skrev (2 timer siden):

Hva Trump og Harris sa om Ukraina og Russlands angrepskrig i nattens debatt.

Trump:

Harris:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542

Hm, her hadde Trump sjansen til å avkrefte, men var igjen unnvikende.

Man kan kritisere Biden/Harris for at de ikke gir nok, men det at Trump ikke fyrer opp under dette, men heller prøver å dodge unna spørsmålet, bekrefter at han mest sannsynligvis heller vil strupe igjen ytterligere og tvinge Ukraina til fredssamtaler.

Harris derimot virker ganske klar på at vi må støtte Ukraina, ikke bare for deres del, men også for Europa sin del:
“Why don’t you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up for the sake of favour and what you think is a friendship with what is known to be a dictator who would eat you for lunch.”
Ref:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/11/us-presidential-debate-donald-trump-ukraine-war

Det meste tyder på at man må stemme på demokratene hvis man ønsker å støtte Ukraina.
Og selv om utenrikspolitikk ofte ikke er den største velgermagneten i USA, får vi håpe at dette har klart å skremme noen over til demokratenes side.

Endret 11. september av KalleKanin

[Serpentbane]

Jalla21 skrev (12 timer siden):

Men det er ganske kreativ bokføring å sette dette på posten for støtte til Ukraina i 2024.

Får ikke lest akkurat denne artikkelen, men i 2024 har Sverige donert støtte til et innfasingsprogram som skal klargjøre Ukraina for mottak av JAS Gripen samt en større batch reservedeler og komponenter som skal produseres til C/D variantene som egentlig skulle fases ut som er aktuelle for donasjon. Så dette hører absolutt til på 2024 posten, og i og med at dette kjøpet ligger i støttepakken til Ukraina så må man gå ut i fra at Sverige absolutt planlegger en fremtidig donasjon av Gripen C/D.

Hva dette innebærer eller når "fremtidig" er, er vanskelig å si for Sverige har per nå ikke fly å donere i særlig antall på kort sikt.

SAAB har vel i snitt bygd 8-10 fly per år, men om jeg ikke husker helt feil startet SAAB produksjon av Gripen E/F i 2019, og jeg mener at jeg leste en rapport fra SAAB at de hadde omtrent 30 i produksjon i 2021. De første serieproduserte flyene ble overlevert det svenske flyvåpenet sent i 2023, men dette var en svært liten batch, og seks av disse ble i samme periode levert til Brasil. Jeg har ikke fulgt med så nøye etter dette, men jeg kan ikke huske å ha sett at noen E har blitt rullet ut i særlig antall, om i det hele tatt. Om jeg ikke husker helt feil så jeg en artikkel om at de faktisk har forskjøvet leveransene pga en oppgradert teknologipakke, og at leveransene nå faktisk er planlagt etter 2025.

Poenget er uansett at de har brukt seks år på å enda ikke levere de 30 flyene i produksjon uansett årsak, og dette hjelper ikke Ukraina, i alle fall ikke på kort sikt.

Så om svenskene ikke tar av tar av sine egne fly og satser på at det nye kampflysammarbeidet og NATO er trygghet nok til å balansere risikoen frem til de klarer å nå egne interne mål for Gripen E, som er en betydelig forsterkning av flyvåpenet i antall, så ser jeg ikke at dette skulle skje med det første.

Det sagt, jeg leste tidligere en uttalelse av en representant for SAAB-fabrikken i Sverige at de om fabrikken maksimerer output og får løpende ordre kan skalere til 35-40 fly per år. Hvis dette er reelt, og de kommer i gang, så er det naturligvis mulig at de ca 30 E flyene som står i produksjon kan erstatte et tilsvarende antall av C/D variantene allerde neste år, og samtidig produsere nok til at Svenskene kan nå egne mål innen rimelig tid selv med en donasjon av et større antall Gripen C/D.

Fra og med 2023 (de hadde testproduksjon tidligere) har også Gripen (den heter der F-39E) blitt lisensprodusert på fabrikk i Brasil. Men jeg er veldig usikker på om det vil være aktuelt for Brasil å bistå Sverige med støtten til Ukraina, det er ingen indikasjoner på dette.

En annen motvekt til snarlig leveranser er at Sveriges forsvarsminister Pål Jonson i 2023 uttalte at leveranser ikke ville være aktuelle før Ukraina ble medlemmer i NATO. Men dette står altså litt i kontrast til denne åpenbare klargjøringen av en Gripen C/D leveranse siden NATO-medlemskap ligger langt fram i tid.

Om jeg måtte gjette tror jeg i utgangspunktet Ukraina og partnere fremdeles kommer til å satse på F-16 programmet i alle fall det neste året eller kansje to, men dette oppkjøpet av deler og komponenter kan være en indikasjon på at Svenskene til tross for alt over vil "skynda på litet".

Kanskje tenker de at dette kan være en billett inn hos et land som i mange år fremover helt åpenbart vil satse på et solid flyvåpen, og at sjansen for å bli valgt reduseres jo mer eksklusiv tid de får på Amerikanske, og potensielt Franske fly. 

Endret 11. september av Serpentbane

[Dragavon]

Serpentbane skrev (10 minutter siden):

Får ikke lest akkurat denne artikkelen,

Eg kopierte alt inn her.

[Dragavon]

Sitat

In a significant military aid gesture, Portugal has officially retired the six Russian Kamov Ka-32 helicopters it acquired in 2006. The helicopters, now decommissioned, were loaded onto trucks and dispatched to Ukraine, as confirmed by Portugal’s Ministry of Defense.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/09/11/lisbon-withdrew-the-russian-ka-32-helicopters-acquired-in-2006/

[bojangles]

 

AI sammendrag:

Spoiler

T

he video provides updates on Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia, particularly focusing on drone strikes, missile transfers, and military operations. Here's a summary of the key points:

1. Massive Drone Strike on Moscow:

   • A major drone strike occurred in Moscow, with reports of explosions at airfields and substations.
   • Russia’s air defense in Moscow is considered strong, using electronic jamming systems that may have diverted some Ukrainian drones, leading to hits on residential buildings.

2. Strikes in St. Petersburg:

   • A Ukrainian drone also reportedly hit a gas pipeline in St. Petersburg, about 1,300 km (800 miles) from Ukraine, signaling Ukraine's ability to target far-reaching locations within Russia.

3. Iranian Ballistic Missiles to Russia:

   • Iran has transferred ballistic missiles to Russia, as confirmed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
   • These missiles are expected to be used by Russia against Ukraine in the coming weeks. Russia could receive around 200 missiles, which are difficult to intercept with standard air defense systems.

4. Potential for ATACMS Missiles in Ukraine:

   • Ukraine may soon receive permission to use U.S.-provided ATACMS missiles, which can strike deep into Russian territory.
   • These missiles, along with other long-range weapons from the UK and France, could significantly enhance Ukraine's ability to target key Russian military assets.

5. Concerns Over Iran-Russia Cooperation:

   • European leaders, including those from Germany, France, and the UK, view the Iran-Russia missile deal as a security threat to Europe.
   • Calls for sanctions on Iran have increased due to the missile transfers.

6. Influence of Russian Propaganda:

   • The U.S. Department of Justice revealed that many right-wing influencers in the U.S. received funding from Russia’s RT (Russia Today) to promote pro-Russian narratives.
   • These influencers, many aligned with the MAGA movement, have been involved in spreading disinformation about the war and other political issues.

7. Ukraine’s Military Situation:

   • Russian forces have launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, regaining some villages. Ukraine is reportedly limited in resources and may withdraw its forces from some Russian-held regions during the winter.
   • Russia is also advancing towards the strategic town of Pavlivka, raising concerns about Ukraine’s ability to hold key positions.

8. Challenges on the Front Lines:

   • The video discusses how Ukraine's forces are under pressure, particularly in the eastern and southern fronts, with Russia slowly making gains.
   • Ukraine requires additional support from Western allies to maintain its defense, as the current strain on its military resources could lead to further setbacks.

The video concludes with the host urging viewers to support Ukraine and stay informed about the conflict, while also highlighting the importance of Ukraine receiving further military aid to counter Russian advances.

 

Endret 11. september av bojangles

[bojangles]

 

AI sammendrag:

Spoiler

• Lifting of U.S. Restrictions on Attacks Inside Russia: The U.S. plans to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of American-provided weapons, such as ATACMS, to hit targets inside Russia. This comes after discussions between U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and UK counterparts. The focus will remain on military targets, such as airfields and ammunition depots, rather than civilian infrastructure.

• Russia’s Escalation with Ballistic Missiles from Iran: Russia has reportedly imported about 200 short-range ballistic missiles from Iran. These missiles are intended to strike Ukrainian cities, but intelligence may allow Ukraine to target these weapons before launch.

• August Civilian Casualties: Russia's missile and drone strikes killed 184 civilians in Ukraine in August 2023, making it one of the deadliest months for Ukrainian civilians.

• Military Updates: Ukrainian forces continue to hold and defend key territories while the Russians have been looting and destroying towns they expect to lose to Ukrainian forces. The battle for key regions remains intense, with Ukraine focusing on fortifying its positions.

• Russian Bombing of Its Own Territory: Russian state media has indicated that Russia is prepared to bomb its own towns and villages to prevent Ukrainian forces from holding them. Some of these regions, now under Ukrainian control, have already experienced aerial bombardment.

• Russian Drones Breaching NATO Airspace: Russian drones have violated the airspace of NATO countries Romania and Lithuania, leading to concerns about NATO's response. While Romanian fighter jets intercepted the drones, they did not shoot them down to avoid potential civilian casualties.

• Germany’s Call for Peace: Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany has called for peace talks, suggesting that Ukraine should concede some territory to Russia, a stance aligned with other nations advocating for a ceasefire. However, critics argue this could encourage more aggression from Russia.

• Political Fallout in Germany: Scholz’s stance comes amid declining support, particularly after regional elections saw the far-right AfD party make gains. His position has been criticized for appearing weak and conciliatory.

• Russian Executions of Ukrainian POWs: There have been increased reports of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukraine has responded by limiting the privileges of Russian POWs, suspending phone calls to their families but allowing letters in line with the Geneva Convention.

• Ukraine’s Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces have begun deploying drones that drop thermite, a substance that burns on contact, causing havoc among Russian troops hiding in forests and tree lines. Ukraine has also improved its ability to target high-flying Russian surveillance drones.

• Google Restricts Services in Russia: Google has reportedly restricted services in Russia, including registration with Russian phone numbers, following the Russian government’s ban on YouTube and other Western platforms. This is seen as part of a larger "information war" between the West and Russia.

• Right-Wing Influencers in the U.S. and Russia: There are ongoing investigations into American influencers who have allegedly taken Russian money to promote propaganda and pro-Russian views, with high-profile figures like Candace Owens being demonetized on YouTube.

• Positive Developments for Ukraine: The European Union has donated one million textbooks to Ukrainian children, and Sweden has announced a new military aid package that may include fighter jets. Additionally, blackouts in Ukraine caused by Russian attacks have made daily life difficult for many Ukrainians

 

Ser ut til at USA fortsatt ikke er åpne for å bruke LR missiler som ATACMS der Ukraina vil og trenger det mest, slik som oljeinstallasjoner. Da er det kanskje noen militære mål som er forhåndsgodkjent? I det minste. Vi får vel svaret i løpet av uken. 

Endret 11. september av bojangles

[uname -i]

Erdogan er en opportunist så dette betyr vel at han mener at Russland sliter

 

Endret 11. september av uname -i

[KalleKanin]

uname -i skrev (18 minutter siden):

Erdogan er en opportunist så dette betyr vel at han mener at Russland sliter

 

Overraskende.
Han møter jo fort seg selv i døra, med tanke på okkupasjonen av Nord-Kypros.

[dabear]

Går mye rykter på twitter nå om en storstilt mot-offensiv i kursk fra Russland.

[Dragavon]

Fornuftig av Macron ihvertfall.

 

Sitat

France prohibits arming Serbian Rafale jets with Meteor AAMs
Local sources have confirmed that the Rafale fourth-generation fighters, currently on order for the Serbian Air Force, will have downgraded air-to-air capabilities. This ensures that they will pose a limited challenge to NATO air power, should Belgrade align its policies with the preferences of the Western Bloc. 

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/09/11/france-prohibits-arming-serbian-rafale-jets-with-meteor-aams/