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Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]


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oddeh skrev (7 timer siden):

Hva er poenget ditt? Challenger 2 og Chobham er ikke uskadelig...

Er ikke det ganske opplagt? Vi ser stadig at russiske MBT går over til skrapmetall med tårnkast ved treff, men her ser det ut som vognen kan repareres. Sannsynligvis har også mannskapet klart seg, og er klar for ny innsats.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/15/russia-ukraine-war-kursk-incursion-gamble-battlefield/d88efc6e-5abe-11ef-93a9-023ab69f91f5_story.html

Ukraine gambled on an incursion deep into Russian territory. The bold move changed the battlefield

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine's stunning incursion into Russia’s Kursk border region was a bold gamble for the country’s military commanders, who committed their limited resources to a risky assault on a nuclear-armed enemy with no assurance of success.

After the first signs of progress, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy broke his silence and spelled out Kyiv’s daily advances to his war-weary public. By Wednesday, Ukrainian officials said they controlled 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of enemy territory, including at least 74 settlements and hundreds of Russian prisoners of war.

But a week after it began, the overall aim of the daring operation is still unclear: Will Ukraine dig in and keep the conquered territory, advance further into Russian territory or pull back?

What is clear is that the incursion has changed the battlefield. The shock of Ukraine’s thunder run revealed chinks in the armor of its powerful adversary. The attack also risked aggravating Ukraine’s own weaknesses by extending the front line and committing new troops at a time when military leaders are short on manpower.

To conduct the Kursk operation, Kyiv deployed battalions drawn from multiple brigades, some of which were pulled from the hottest parts of the front line, where Russia’s advance has continued unabated. So far, Moscow’s overall strategic advantage is intact.

“The stretching of the front line for us is also stretching the front line for the enemy,” said the commander of the 14th Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Systems, who participated in the opening stage of the offensive. “Only we have prepared for this operation in detail. The Russians were not prepared for this operation at all.”

He spoke on condition of anonymity, using only the call sign Charlie, in keeping with the rules of the Ukrainian military.

As the offensive enters its second week, Ukrainian forces are pushing out in several directions from the Russian town of Sudzha.

Images from the battlefield showing columns of destroyed Russian weaponry are reminiscent of Ukraine’s successful counteroffensives in 2022 in Kherson and Kharkiv. The photos are also a boon to national morale that deflated after the failed 2023 summer counteroffensive and months of recent territorial losses in the east.

But some analysts are reserving judgment on whether the Kursk region is the right theater to launch an offensive. Estimates of the number of troops operating there range from 5,000 to 12,000.

Within a week, Ukraine claimed to have captured almost as much Russian land in Kursk as Russian forces took in Ukraine in the last seven months, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

Russian authorities acknowledged the Ukrainian gains but described them as smaller. Even so, they have evacuated about 132,000 people.

Hundreds of Russian prisoners were blindfolded and ferried away in trucks in the opening moments of the lightning advance. They could be used in future prisoner swaps to free thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians in captivity.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said the fighting in Kursk led his Russian counterpart, Tatyana Moskalkova, to initiate a conversation about prisoner swaps, the first time such a request has come from Moscow.

Politically, the incursion turned the tables on Russia and reset the terms of a conflict in which Ukraine increasingly seemed doomed to accept unfavorable cease-fire terms. The strike was also a powerful example of Ukrainian determination and a message to Western allies that have dithered on allowing donated weapons to be used for deeper strikes inside Russian territory.

The assault has shown that the fear of crossing Russian “red lines” that could lead to nuclear escalation “is a myth, and that Ukraine’s battle-hardened military remains a formidable force,” wrote Taras Kuzio, a professor of political science at the National University Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.

Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak suggested that the incursion may also strengthen Kyiv’s hand in future negotiations with Russia. Occupying part of Russian territory ahead of any cease-fire talks may give Ukraine some leverage.

Though the fighting continues, the territory currently under Ukrainian control is, by itself, of little economic or strategic value.

“There is some important gas infrastructure in the area, but its usefulness is likely to be limited other than as a minor bargaining chip. Ukrainians have also cut a railway line running from Lgov to Belgorod,” said Pasi Paroinen of the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based open-source intelligence agency that monitors the war.

Major military bases are far from the current area of operations, and Ukrainian advances are expected to slow as Russia sends in more forces.

Ukrainian officials have said they do not intend to occupy Kursk, but they may seek to create a buffer zone to protect settlements in the bordering Sumy region from relentless Russian artillery attacks and to block supply lines to the northeast.

Forcing Russia to deploy reserves intended for other parts of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line was the minimum aim, said Charlie, the commander. But so far, Moscow’s focus in the Donetsk region has not changed.

Some Ukrainian troops were pulled from those very lines, where manpower shortages were a key factor that contributed to territorial losses this year.

In the strategically significant Pokrovsk area, which is the main thrust of Russia’s offensive effort, soldiers have seen few improvements since the Kursk incursion.

“Nothing has changed,” said a soldier known by the call sign Kyianyn, who also spoke on condition of anonymity due to military protocol. “If anything, I see the increase in Russian offensive actions.”

But the Kursk operation “showed they can’t defend their own territory,” he said. “All of us are inspired here. Many of our soldiers wanted to go to Kursk and push them straight to the Kremlin.”

Targeting Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces, which feeds the Kharkiv front, is a key goal, said Konstantin Mashovets, a Ukrainian military expert. Some Russian units have reportedly moved from Vovchansk in Kharkiv.

In the south, a small number of Russian units were redeployed from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, said Dmytro Lykhovii, the spokesman of the Tavria operational group. But that hasn’t affected Russian attacks.

“We even see an increase in (Russian) activity,” Lykhovii said.

The Kursk operation has also served to draw attention away from the eastern front, where tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed and wounded, and where the Ukrainian military has struggled to repair cracks in its defenses.

Most territorial losses in June and July were recorded in the Pokrovsk area, which is near a logistics hub, with fighting intensifying near the towns of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.

Russian forces dialed up those attacks to capitalize on troop fatigue and shortages. On many occasions, the losses were the result of poorly timed troop rotations and blunders that cast doubt about the overall strategy of the Ukrainian military’s General Staff.

“There is no way Russia will stop its actions in the parts of the front line where they are tactically succeeding,” Mashovets said. “There, they will push and squeeze until their last man is standing, no matter what.” But the push into Kursk might force the Kremlin to pull reserves “from the parts of the front line that are of secondary importance.”

 

Putin er desperat etter å få tilbake de vernepliktige som er tatt til fange, og russiske styrker i Donbas er desperate etter å gjøre større fremskritt.

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/even-the-kremlins-paid-liars-are-begging-putin-to-end-the-lies?ref=wrap

Even the Kremlin’s Paid Liars Are Begging Putin to End the Lies

The staggering military defeat inflicted by Ukraine has Russians reeling.

Moscow is reeling from Ukraine’s bold counter-invasion of Russia, which caught many people off guard—including some of the Kremlin’s most prominent propagandists, whose lies are now blowing up in their faces. The blowback is so severe that even pundits whose unspoken job description includes the ability to lie with abandon are now calling on Russia’s mainstream media to start reporting “a bit more truth.”

During Monday’s broadcast of The Meeting Place on the NTV channel, Andrey Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, didn’t mince his words, taking issue even with the deceptive title of the segment. He said: “For as long as we continue to live with headlines like ‘The Agony of the Regime,’ we will keep losing, because constant lies are coming from our side: about the weakness of the Ukrainian army and all that it’s lacking... Ukraine has approximately 20,000 men near the Belgorod region who can potentially participate.”

Host Andrey Norkin replied: “The most repugnant thing is that we overestimate our strength and underestimate the enemy. I think, this is very important, because people are certainly asking, ‘How could this have happened?’”

Fedorov noted that Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate had allegedly named the Kursk operation ‘The Sinking of Kursk.’ There are inescapable parallels between the catastrophic loss of the Kursk submarine in 2000, in the first year of Vladimir Putin’s presidency, and the humiliating disaster that may mark the final chapter of his grip on power. Fedorov noted: “This is a combination of a military and a psychological attack. Unfortunately, we weren’t able to fully withstand it.”

Citing unnamed sources, Fedorov argued that Ukraine had been preparing its incursion into the Kursk region for approximately two and a half months and had put a lot of thought into it. He argued that the capture of Russia’s vital gas hub of Sudzha, in the Kursk region, was designed to force the Russian armed forces to destroy it. Fedorov was referring to Russia’s pattern of destroying cities and towns in order to capture or recapture them, which has been Moscow’s grisly habit, from Chechnya to Syria and Ukraine.

Fedorov added, “Deliveries of gas to Europe will be stopped because of Russia’s actions, not because of Ukraine. By the way, this will hit Hungary and Slovakia very hard.”

Political scientist Anton Khaschenko likewise urged more honesty in the media: “We really do have a lot of boasting, creating a false impression for the people that, tomorrow, all of this will come to an end. This shouldn’t be happening.”

A bit later, apparently disregarding Khaschenko’s sage advice, Norkin noted that the head of the Chechen Republic predicted that Ukraine’s counter-invasion would soon be repelled, optimistically stating, “Ramzan Kadyrov said this would take about three days.”

Instead, political editor Maxim Yusin urged Russians to abandon delusions and return to reality. He asked:, “What should we do to calm down? We should try a cynical, less emotional approach, even though it’s insanely difficult. We should look at Russia’s map and compare these lost territories to Russia’s enormous size.”

Yusin asserted that Russians should prepare for the worst possible outcome, evacuating all of their border regions and assuming that Ukrainians will be entrenched there for months to come. He added, “We should be ready for the scenario that we might have to sacrifice these territories—God willing, without the people—for a certain time period. Ukrainians might be entrenched there, perhaps for six months or so.”

Political analyst Viktor Olevich likewise urged some realism in Russian reporting. “The special military operation has been underway for two and a half years,” he said. “We should stop with these reports that they are in agony—including the segment here today claiming they are in agony—unfortunately, they are not in agony and it’s obvious. They are advancing!”

Yusin chimed in to assert, “We need a bit more truth!”

Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in a part of the southern Zaporizhzhia region that is temporarily under Moscow's control, immediately flouted this recommendation. With complete disregard for their real nationality, he described Ukrainians as “Southern Russian people,” who have been in a state of war for hundreds of years and must be taught to seek peace. He recounted numerous wars and conflicts that involved Ukrainians throughout history.

“Ukrainian Cossacks also took Moscow [back in 1610], together with the Poles,” Yusin noted bitterly.

“Let’s not go there,” Rogov replied.

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chatgpt sammendrag;

Spoiler

Ukrainske styrker har gjort betydelige fremskritt i den russiske Kursk-regionen, med daglige bekreftelser av nye territorielle gevinster. For to dager siden kunngjorde den ukrainske øverstkommanderende, Alexander Syrskyi, at ukrainske styrker hadde etablert kontroll over omtrent 1 000 kvadratkilometer av russisk territorium, inkludert opptil 74 bosetninger. Nyere rapporter tyder på at dette kontrollerte området har utvidet seg betydelig.

Ukrainske styrker opererer langs fire forskjellige akser og har omringet flere russiske bosetninger. I den østlige og nordvestlige retningen fokuserer de på å omringe bosetningen Korenevo. Ukrainas 103. territorialforsvarsbrigade rykker frem fra sør, mens den 82. luftbårne brigaden avanserer frontalt og fra nord.

I den nordlige sektoren rykker ukrainske styrker, ledet av den 80. luftbårne brigaden, frem mot Lgov langs veien Suja-Lgov. Det er uklart hvor omfattende disse fremskrittene er, men det er rapporter om isolerte russiske tropper i området som kan være omringet og avvente overgivelse.

I den nordvestlige sektoren avanserer den 22. brigaden langs veien R200 fra Suja mot byen Kursk, med rapporter om sammenstøt nær Martynovka. I den østlige sektoren utfører ukrainske styrker, ledet av den 92. mekaniserte brigaden, en knipetangsmanøver på begge sider av Seim-elven, med mål om å sikre kontroll over to viktige broer i regionen.

Ukrainske styrker har også gjennomført angrep på en russisk militær flybase i Lipetsk-regionen, der flere ammunisjonslagre ble ødelagt. Dette er en del av en bredere kampanje mot russiske flybaser, med mål om å forstyrre russiske luftoperasjoner som kan true ukrainske styrker.

Analytikere er delt i sine tolkninger av denne ukrainske operasjonen, men er enige om to hovedmål: å tvinge Russland til å omplassere betydelige ressurser for å motvirke den ukrainske inntrengningen, og å styrke Ukrainas forhandlingsposisjon i fremtidige forhandlinger ved å kontrollere deler av russisk territorium.

 

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Jalla21 skrev (7 minutter siden):

Er ikke det ganske opplagt? Vi ser stadig at russiske MBT går over til skrapmetall med tårnkast ved treff, men her ser det ut som vognen kan repareres. Sannsynligvis har også mannskapet klart seg, og er klar for ny innsats.

Det virker ikke sånt. Denne Challenger 2-stridsvognen var truffet av en ny type Lancet som er flere ganger kraftigere enn vanlig. Et annet opptak som vist hvordan en Stryker unngikk et fulltreff, avslørt at detonasjonen var på størrelse med en 203mm granat. Lancet-dronen har langt svakere stridshoder, slik at selv sterkt pansrede kjøretøyer kunne unngå det verste selv ved fulltreff. 

Fra wiki: 

According to LostArmour, as of 28 February 2024, Russia conducted a total of 1,163 Lancet strikes on various Ukrainian weaponry since July 2022. Among these, 363 targets (31.2%) were destroyed, while 615 targets (52.9%) suffered substantial damage. The drone failed to strike a target in 92 instances, and outcomes remained unconfirmed for 91 sorties. Nearly half of the Lancet's engagements focused on artillery installations, encompassing 255 self-propelled cannons, 272 howitzers and mortars, and 34 MLRS launchers. 197 targets were tanks, 118 were lighter armored vehicles and 10 were ships. 10% targets were motor vehicles and other relatively low-value targets. Another 14% of the targets were very high value: surface-to-air missile launchers and radar systems

Mange her hadde gjort narr av mine advarslene og nektet å ta Lancet-trusselen på alvor; men statistiske data fra LostArmour vist det; disse dronene som var først utviklet av ISRAEL og deretter solgt til Russland, har blitt den største våpenteknologiske trusselen mot Vesten siden MiG-15. Det verst med dette er at dette masseproduseres, for ifølge russerne selv er suksessgraden 50 %, som betyr at så mye som 2,400 Lancet-droner kan ha vært lansert i juli 2022 til mars 2024, alene i mai 2024 var 285 Lancet-angrep registrert. 

Tilgang på vestlige komponenter er avgjørende for droneproduksjon i Russland. Et irsk selskap er satt under etterforskning, men så langt er det ikke kommet noe formell skritt mot dette eller andre som hadde i hemmelighet solgt enorme mengder til tvilsomme firmaer som videresendt dem til Russland. En Lancet-drone koste rundt 35,000 dollar per stykke. 

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Quote

Putins glansbilde falmer

Igjen står Vladimir Putin overfor en stor utfordring for å holde på sitt eget glansbilde blant russerne.

«Ukrainas offensiv inne i Russland har pågått i mer enn en uke. Jo lenger den fortsetter, desto større vil presset på det russiske lederskapet bli, og potensielt desto større skaden på president Putins autoritet», skriver BBC-korrespondenten.

 

Onsdag kveld hevdet Zelenskyj at ukrainske styrker fortsatte å rykke frem i den russiske regionen, og at de oppnår sitt strategiske mål i operasjonen, ifølge The Guardian.

– Jo dristigere partnernes beslutninger er, desto mindre kan Putin gjøre, sa han i en appell til Ukrainas allierte.

Også invasjonen av Ukraina ble presentert som en vei mot å styrke nasjonens sikkerhet – men, som professor i militær strategi Tormod Heier fortalte ABC Nyheter tidligere denne uken, kan utsiktene for nye overraskelsesangrep åpne opp sårbarheter i de russiske forsvarslinjene.

– Det er fordi russerne er svake siden de ikke har effektive landmilitære kampsystemer som gjør det mulig å bryte gjennom de ukrainske forsvarsstillingene på kort varsel, sa Heier.

 

Samtidig har Russlands grense til Nato vokst etter at Finland sluttet seg til alliansen og russiske byer opplever stadig droneangrep. Torsdag uttalte Kursks fungerende guvernør Aleksej Smirnov at Glusjkov-distriktet, som har en befolkning på 20.000 mennesker, er evakuert. Dermed er minst 200.000 mennesker hittil evakuert fra grenseområdene ved Ukraina, ifølge russiske tall.

Likevel fortsetter den russiske militære ledelsen med Putin i spissen gjennom sin språkbruk å vise det russiske folket at det ikke er noen grunn til panikk, ifølge BBC.

Rosenberg forteller om en surrealistisk stemning i Moskva torsdag og antyder at Putins tanker reflekteres i øyeblikket.

«Mens arbeidere satte opp seter og skjermer til et arrangement, spilte Edith Piafs klassiker «Non, je ne regrette rien» («Nei, jeg angrer ingenting») på en storskjerm og ekkoet over Den Røde Plass».

https://www.abcnyheter.no/nyheter/verden/2024/08/16/196022540/putins-rykte-som-mr-sikkerhet-slar-sprekker

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