Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Brother Ursus]

11 hours ago, torbjornen said:

Skal det ikkje vere parlamentsval i Georgia i haust? Er alt håp ute for at den Russlandvennlege regjeringa skal bli kasta?

Stemmer det. Er nok derfor befolkningen holder seg ved noenlunde ro også. Hvis ikke tror jeg ikke demonstrasjonene hadde opphørt før regjeringen gikk. Det virker veldig tvilsomt at regjeringen vil vinne en ny periode.

 

1 hour ago, Enceladus said:

Nærmer seg 600.000 som var en slags smertegrense for russerne i følge hva ukrainere flest mente for en tid tilbake. Men det var vel kanskje mer håp enn realistisk...

Det virker jo ingen ende på russerens offervilje. Jeg blir stadig overrasket over hva de greier skrape sammen av rusk og rask for å holde krigen gående og den vanlige russers fatalistiske holdning til livet.

Hvor mange menn kan de egentlig tåle å miste før det rakner?

 

Med tanke på alle tiltakene Russland har vært nødt til å gjøre for å forsikre seg om å ha nok soldater så tror jeg nok den analysen stemte ganske godt. Russerne bruker altså fanger, kvinner, barn og sårede i kjøttbølgeangrep.

[Brother Ursus]

 

[Thor.]

2 minutes ago, Brother Ursus said:

Muligens en av de som var med på å drepe uskyldige barn på sykehusangrepene?

[Brother Ursus]

 

Russland har muligens angrepet NATO-territorium tre ganger i natt.

Dette har Russland antagelig gjort med vilje da det er veldig vanskelig å bomme tre ganger på rad.

Og NATO vil ikke foreta seg en dritt. Og nettopp det er det som kommer til å få NATO til å kollapse dersom Trump blir gjenvalgt. Putin kommer bare til å fortsette å øke antallet av disse "ulykkene" for å provosere NATO. Hvis NATO ikke setter ned foten, så kan den veldig fort rakne.

Endret 24. juli av Brother Ursus

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

Av 300 soldater er dette den eneste som er igjen i denne russiske enheten. De fikk påfyll av 30 mann og nå er det 10 igjen.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/i-know-we-will-win-and-how-ukraines-top-general-on-turning-the-tables-against-russia

I know we will win – and how’: Ukraine’s top general on turning the tables against Russia

Sitting on a stack of ammunition crates at a secret military base, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi was tight-lipped about when Ukraine will receive a long-awaited delivery of F-16 fighter jets. The Dutch and other allies have said they will arrive soon. This week? Or maybe August? “I know. But I can’t tell you about it, unfortunately,” he said, with an apologetic grin, as gulls squawked nearby.

Syrskyi is Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief. His unenviable task is to defeat a bigger Russian army. Two and half years into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale onslaught, he acknowledges the Russians are much better resourced. They have more of everything: tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, soldiers. Their original 100,000-strong invasion force has grown to 520,000, he said, with a goal by the end of 2024 of 690,000 men. The figures for Ukraine have not been made public.

“When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favour,” he said. Since 2022 the number of Russian tanks has “doubled” – from 1,700 to 3,500. Artillery systems have tripled, and armoured personnel carriers gone up from 4,500 to 8,900. “The enemy has a significant advantage in force and resources,” Syrskyi said. “Therefore, for us, the issue of supply, the issue of quality, is really at the forefront.”

It is this man and machine superiority that explains recent events on the battlefield. Since last autumn Ukraine’s armed forces have been going steadily backwards. One of his first acts when he got the job in February 2024 – replacing Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK – was to order the withdrawal of his troops from the eastern city of Avdiivka. The retreat coincided with a six-month gap in the US supply of weapons.

More have recently arrived. The Russians, however, are still seizing fields and villages in the eastern Donbas, using airdropped bombs to blast a path forward. They have gobbled up territory north-west of Avdiivka, towards the garrison town of Pokrovsk, and besieged the hilltop settlement of Chasiv Yar. In May Russian forces opened a new front in the Kharkiv region, storming the city of Vovchansk. Ukraine anticipated this attack. Seemingly it couldn’t stop it.

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian, his first with a foreign newspaper as overall military chief, Syrskyi admitted things were “very difficult”. “The Russian aggressor attacks our positions in many directions,” he said. Could Russia’s advance be halted? “Yes, of course. First of all, it depends on our brave soldiers, our officers,” he said. Quite frequently “resilient and heroic” Ukrainian units defeated bigger enemy groups, he said.

By way of example, he cited Russia’s latest attempt to seize Kharkiv and the neighbouring province of Sumy. “It failed,” Syrskyi said. Fighting continued but he said Putin’s attempt to create a “so-called security corridor” next to Russia’s border and Belgorod region had been thwarted. What about rumours Moscow was planning another assault in the southern Zaporizhia region? If it happens “we can give them a good response”, he replied.

Overall, Syrskyi sought to put recent setbacks in context. He described Russia’s creeping victories as “tactical” ones – local gains rather than an “operational” breakthrough, such as the capture of a major city. “In principle, the enemy has not made any significant progress,” he said. The frontline, he added, was 3,700km long. Active hostilities were taking place across “977km” of it, or “twice the length of the border between Germany and France”.

Russia’s successes, meanwhile, came at a staggering human cost. The Kremlin’s casualties were “three times” higher than Ukraine’s, and “even more” in certain directions, Syrskyi said. “Their number of killed is much bigger,” he emphasised. In February Volodymyr Zelenskiy said 31,000 Ukrainian service personnel had died since 2022. Could Syrskyi update this figure? He declined, saying losses were “sensitive” and a topic Moscow could exploit.

Syrskyi contrasted his battlefield tactics with those used by Russian commanders, who are known for sacrificing huge numbers of infantry troops to gain “100 to 200 metres”. “It’s very important for us to save the lives of our soldiers. We don’t defend ruins to the death,” Syrskyi said. He said he was not willing to “achieve goals at any cost”, or to chuck his men into “futile meat assaults”. Sometimes it was necessary to move to “more favourable positions”.

Amid scepticism about Ukraine’s prospect of achieving outright victory, Syrskyi noted various positive developments. F-16s would strengthen Ukraine’s air defences. They would allow Kyiv to work more effectively against Russian cruise missiles and to hit ground targets accurately. However, there were limits to what F-16s might achieve, he stressed. They had to remain “40km or more” from the frontline because of the risk Moscow would shoot them down.

Russia had “superior aviation” and “very strong” air defences. Because of this Ukraine was increasingly turning to unmanned aerial systems, Syrskyi said. It used drones “very effectively” and was trying out “robotic ground systems” – land robots that could deliver ammunition or rescue a wounded soldier. There was a new unmanned systems command, the first of its kind. “We fight not by quantity but quality,” he said, adding that drones played “as big a role as artillery”.

Ukraine’s armed forces were successfully using long-range kamikaze drones to strike deep inside Russia, he said. So far they had targeted “about 200 critical infrastructure sites”. All were connected with “military logistics”, and included factories, fuel dumps and munition depots. Speedboat-like sea drones, meanwhile, had sunk about a third of Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet. “It really became a trap for them and for some [vessels] a grave,” Sryskyi said.

The Kremlin, he added, has been forced to “completely pull out” from the Crimean port of Sevastopol, after a series of Ukrainian attacks. Drone and missile strikes have wiped out radar and rocket installations. A key Ukrainian objective is to destroy the Kerch road and rail crossing connecting the occupied peninsula with Russia. Syrskyi declined to say when this might happen. Two earlier attempts featured a truck bomb and a drone strike.

He said Kyiv had a plan to get back Crimea, more than a decade after Vladimir Putin illegally annexed it. Was this really feasible? “It’s realistic. Of course, it’s a big military secret,” the general said. He continued: “We will do everything we can to reach the internationally recognised borders of 1991 [when Ukraine voted for independence from the USSR]. We have to win … to liberate our citizens who are in the occupied territories, who are suffering.”

Aged 58, Syrskyi was born in Vladimir, a city outside Moscow, in what was then the Soviet Union. Since the 1990s he has served in Ukraine’s armed forces. Critics accuse him of Soviet military thinking. Supporters describe him as a disciplined and talented commander who – in contrast to his charismatic predecessor, Zaluzhnyi – is often on the frontline. In February 2022, as head of ground forces, he led the defence of Kyiv. Zelenskiy made him a hero of Ukraine and six months ago promoted him to commander-in-chief.

Close up, Syrskyi is warm and personable. His handshake is suitably iron. Meeting Syrskyi involved cloak-and-dagger arrangements and a mysterious ride in a van. The Kremlin, you imagine, is keen to kill him. Aides built a small stage for his rare media appearance, with a camouflage netting backdrop.

Like many serving soldiers he sees his family rarely. “They suffer without me, so it’s maybe it’s an issue for me too,” he said. “But I know that we will win. I know how I have to do it. And I’m sure that we will do it.” The general says he doesn’t sleep “many hours”. In rare moments off he read books on Ukrainian history, in order to understand past “processes”. “We have brave people and a difficult history,” he observed.

One of Syrskyi’s most pressing challenges is to find new recruits to replace Ukrainian soldiers who have been killed and injured. Those fighting in trenches are exhausted. The patriotic fervour that led many in spring 2022 to volunteer has worn off. The government recently reduced the conscription age from 27 to 25. Last week a new law came into effect requiring men to register their details with military recruitment centres. Many have done so.

Syrskyi said that without mobilisation he could not create new reserves and brigades, which were needed as Russia multiplied its own land forces. “It’s very important for us that all citizens of Ukraine fulfil their constitutional duty,” he said. He urged Ukrainians living outside their country to take part as well. “I hope that after victory they will be able to tell their children where they were. Where were you when all citizens of Ukraine were fighting in such fierce battles? That is the question.”

One initiative is taking shape in neighbouring Poland. Ukrainians abroad will soon be invited to join a new legion there. Training will take place in Poland itself, building trust between men and officers. Later the legion will transfer to the frontline. Syrskyi credited Zelenskiy with this “different approach”. One senses relations between them are harmonious, helped perhaps by the fact the commander has zero political ambitions and a lower profile than Zaluzhnyi. Syrskyi is celebrated in a cat meme, though.

Russia began its armed takeover of Ukraine in 2014, when it covertly grabbed parts of the Donetsk region. More than a decade on, there seems little likelihood Europe’s biggest war since 1945 will finish this year, or next, Donald Trump’s pledge to end the war in one day notwithstanding. Could Ukraine win? And if so, how long before victory? “I think you have to be very, very brave to say when. We do everything to make it happen. There is simply no more important task for us,” Syrskyi said, leaving the stage and striding back to work.

 

Dette stemmer nok ganske godt. Antall sårede er 3:1, men antall drepte russere er en vesentlig høyere rate. Jeg vil tro 5:1 eller høyere. Russernes dårlige utstyr, idiotiske doktrine, og mangel på kameraderi, ambulanser og medisiner og andre ting må ta skylden for det.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/24/romania-scrambles-fighter-jets-amid-russian-attacks-on-southern-ukraine-a85811

Romania Scrambles Fighter Jets Amid Russian Attacks on Southern Ukraine

Romania’s Defense Ministry said early on Wednesday that it scrambled fighter jets overnight as the Russian military carried out a series of drone attacks near its shared border with southern Ukraine.

The defense ministry said in a statement that two F-16 aircraft took off at 2:19 a.m. local time from the 86th Borcea Air Base, located around 126 kilometers east of the capital Bucharest. According to the statement, the fighter jets were tasked with monitoring “the aerial situation.”

Around the same time, Romania’s Tulcea County — which borders southern Ukraine’s Odesa region — was put on alert as Russian forces were said to have been carrying out drone attacks “against certain targets” near the NATO member’s border with Ukraine. Authorities did not specify where those attacks had taken place.

 

Ingen nyhetsmedier rapporterer om Shahed-dronene som skal ha eksplodert på rumensk side. Så langt er det vanskelig å se helt hva som har skjedd. Romania og Ukraina er innen få meter av hverandre langs Danub-elven.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-allys-f-16-jets-scrambled-after-russian-drone-crosses-border-1929476

F-16 Jets Scrambled After Russian Drone Crosses Border

"Romanian teams are searching for "possible objects" on Romania's side of the border around the village of Plauru, Bucharest said."

"In mid-December 2023, Romania's national defense ministry said Romanian F-16s and German Air Force Typhoon jets were scrambled after Russia attacked Ukrainian port facilities, and one of the drones landed in an "uncontrolled crash" close to a Romanian border village west of Izmail. The drone left a crater 1.5 meters (5 feet) deep, Bucharest said."

"Romania's ambassador to NATO, Dan Neculăescu, described the Russian strikes close to the Romanian border as "an irresponsible escalation."

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

Russerne forsøker å avansere øst for Pokrovsk, og det er nå harde kamper der. Minst to Su-25 er skutt ned i området de siste dagene. Ukrainerne sliter angivelig med å finne nok styrker til å tette gapet.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.newsweek.com/top-russian-economist-dies-after-falling-out-window-1929398

Top Russian Economist Dies After Falling out of Window

Valentina Bondarenko, a top Russian economist, has died at the age of 82 after falling out of her apartment window in Moscow, Russian state-run media reported on Tuesday.

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jul/24/russian-chef-arrested-in-paris-over-alleged-large-scale-olympic-games-plot-paris-2024

Russian chef arrested in Paris over alleged ‘large scale’ Olympic Games plot

• 40-year-old arrested in central Paris on Sunday
• Espionage suspected as man charged and detained

The 40-year-old man was arrested during a raid of his apartment in central Paris on Sunday where a document linked to an elite Russian special forces unit operating under the command of the FSB, an heir to the KGB, was reportedly found.

A judicial investigation has been opened into allegations of sharing “intelligence with a foreign power with a view to provoking hostilities in France,” a crime punishable by 30 years of imprisonment. The alleged plot is not believed to have been terror related.

 

[qualbeen]

Brother Ursus skrev (3 timer siden):

 

Russland har muligens angrepet NATO-territorium tre ganger i natt.

Dette har Russland antagelig gjort med vilje da det er veldig vanskelig å bomme tre ganger på rad.

Og NATO vil ikke foreta seg en dritt. Og nettopp det er det som kommer til å få NATO til å kollapse dersom Trump blir gjenvalgt. Putin kommer bare til å fortsette å øke antallet av disse "ulykkene" for å provosere NATO. Hvis NATO ikke setter ned foten, så kan den veldig fort rakne.

Er det snakk om et befolket område, og fikk det menneskelige konsekvenser? 

Ble bygninger eller annen infrastruktur skadet?

Er det slik at Romania føler seg provosert, og har tatt dette videre til NATO?

Dersom Romania ikke bryr seg nevneverdig om dette, kommer nok ei heller NATO til å bry seg. Og dersom Romania ikke bryr seg, så kan vi konkludere at Putin sitt forsøk på å provosere, på ingen måte faktisk provoserer.

"Uhell" som ikke provoserer, er stengt tatt feilslått bruk av ressurser fra russisk side! 😉

Bomber og materiell brukt på disse uhellene, tar ei heller liv i Ukraina. Det er jo også litt fint. 

[Brother Ursus]

17 minutes ago, qualbeen said:

Er det snakk om et befolket område, og fikk det menneskelige konsekvenser? 

Ble bygninger eller annen infrastruktur skadet?

Er det slik at Romania føler seg provosert, og har tatt dette videre til NATO?

Dersom Romania ikke bryr seg nevneverdig om dette, kommer nok ei heller NATO til å bry seg. Og dersom Romania ikke bryr seg, så kan vi konkludere at Putin sitt forsøk på å provosere, på ingen måte faktisk provoserer.

"Uhell" som ikke provoserer, er stengt tatt feilslått bruk av ressurser fra russisk side! 😉

Bomber og materiell brukt på disse uhellene, tar ei heller liv i Ukraina. Det er jo også litt fint. 

Ingen skal være skadet, men det er ille om én eller to eller hele tre droner har "fallt ned" i Romania.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/36323

Rheinmetall to Build Ammo Plant in Ukraine

The German arms manufacturer wants the plant to start producing ammunition within the next two years.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-map-russia-donetsk-pokrovsk-avdiivka-prohres-1929582

Ukraine War Map Shows Two Battalions at Risk of Encirclement: 'Alarming'

A new map appears to show Russian forces closing in on Ukraine's positions in the heart of fighting in the country's Donetsk region, as Ukrainian sources sound the alarm over Russia's advances on the eastern front.

Popular Ukrainian war-tracking blog, DeepState, said on Tuesday that Russian forces were trying to surround two Ukrainian battalions, belonging to the 31st Mechanized Brigade, west of the Donetsk city of Avdiivka.

Russia captured Avdiivka in February 2024, and has been advancing west toward the strategic Donetsk settlement of Pokrovsk, not far from the Donetsk border with the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region, in the months since.

Pokrovsk has been referred to as a "fortress" settlement, key to Ukrainian defenses preventing Russia's advance west of the Donetsk region.

Moscow has also concentrated efforts further north in Donetsk, west of the Russian-controlled city of Bakhmut, while launching a new cross-border offensive into the northeastern Kharkiv region in early May. However, Ukraine's military has consistently reported the fiercest clashes east of Pokrovsk.

An updated map, published by DeepState, shows Russian forces pressing south from the Donetsk village of Lozuvatske while also moving north from Prohres. The village of Prohres is immediately south of Lozuvatske. Both settlements sit east of Pokrovsk.

The Kremlin's forces are hoping to capture Ivanivka, a Ukrainian village west of Lozuvatske and Prohres, the DeepState blog wrote.

Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian journalist and military observer, said on Wednesday that the situation for Ukrainian troops east of Pokrovsk was "critically difficult."

Russian forces advanced 6 kilometers, or just under 4 miles, toward Pokrovsk and the town of Myrnohrad—just east of Pokrovsk—in the past seven days, Butusov said. Once Russian forces enter Myrnohrad, they can fire directly onto Pokrovsk, he added.

The independent U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said on Tuesday that Butusov's comments on Russian advances east of Pokrovsk matched its own assessment.

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are "the last area of defense before the Dnipropetrovsk region," Butusov added. "The enemy is very close, the situation is critical, as the pace of the enemy's advance is alarming."

Russia's Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that its forces had attacked Ukrainian positions along several parts of the front line snaking through Donetsk, including around Prohres.

Ukraine's armed forces said early on Wednesday that its forces had "repelled" more than 40 Russian attacks along the front line east of Pokrovsk in the past day, including around Prohres. Russian forces "tried to push Ukrainian units from occupied positions," Kyiv's military added.

"All Russian attempts to advance are met with fierce resistance," Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia forces operating in eastern Ukraine, told Ukrainian media on Wednesday.

Russian forces will attack the village of Vovche, immediately southwest of Prohres, which will "create a number of additional problems in further defense," according to the DeepState blog.

 

Vi får tro og håpe at ukrainerne vet hva de driver med, men det er nok på tide å begynne å vurdere tilbaketrekning i Pokrovsk. Russerne har allerede betalt en høy pris de siste dagene. Området virker ikke spesielt enkelt å forsvare. Spørsmålet er dog om de har andre forsvarslinjer å trekke seg tilbake til, eller om russerne bare vil gjenta taktikken sin med å pøse på med kjøtt.

[Brother Ursus]

 

Ca. 20km øst for Pokrovsk by.

[Brother Ursus]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/british-army-chief-calls-to-prepare-armed-forces-for-war/#google_vignette

British Army Chief calls to prepare armed forces for war

British Head of the Army stated that the UK currently faces threats from four countries, including Russia.

Britain must be ready to fight a war in three years, Gen Sir Roland Walker has said.

Walker predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be “very, very dangerous” when he emerges from the war in Ukraine and “will want retribution” against Western countries that support Ukrainian defenders.

This situation could arise regardless of whether Russia wins or loses.

He also warned that China was intent on retaking Taiwan, Iran was likely to pursue nuclear weapons and recalled the threat from North Korea.

Jeg vil dog påpeke overfor Walker at Kina ikke kan "retake" Taiwan, da de aldri har holdt Taiwan.

[Brother Ursus]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/zelensky-ukraine-is-approaching-the-use-of-ukrainian-made-missiles/

Zelensky: Ukraine is approaching the use of Ukrainian-made missiles

According to Zelensky, while Ukraine is waiting for its partners’ decisions, the Ukrainian authorities are seeking their own solutions and options.

“Our missile program has good dynamics, and although it is a difficult task, we are gradually approaching the possibility of using our own missiles, and not just relying on supplies from partners. Ukraine should eventually reach maximum defense independence,” Zelensky said.

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://english.nv.ua/business/ukraine-will-use-fisrt-part-of-proceeds-from-frozen-russian-assets-for-arms-purchase-50436893.html

Ukraine to spend first €1.5 billion from frozen Russian assets on weapons

Ukraine will spend the first €1.5 billion of proceeds from Russia's frozen assets on arms purchases, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said after a government meeting on July 23.

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/fake-video-threat-olympic-games-russia-rcna163186

Fake video of threat to Olympic Games appears to be from Russia, researchers say

Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center, which reviewed the video at NBC News’ request, said it appears to have come from a known Russian disinformation group.

 

A video spreading on X and Telegram of a man purporting to be a Hamas fighter threatening the Olympics in Paris is part of a Russian-linked disinformation campaign meant to disrupt the event, according to researchers at Microsoft.

 

On Telegram, Hamas official Izzat al-Risheq denied the video had come from Hamas, calling it a forgery. 

 

Researchers from Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center, who reviewed the video at NBC News’ request, said it appears to have come from a known Russian disinformation group, noting that details of a previous video about Ukraine match it.