Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[G]

15 hours ago, skaftetryne32 said:

Georgia, Tsjetsjenia.

Moldova har jo også prorussisk region i seg.

[G]

14 hours ago, Windfarmer said:

Jeg har ikke gjort meg til talsmann for at det skal sendes atomvåpen over Moskva.

Jeg har bare nevnt muligheten av at hvis det er OK og sende en masse konvensjonelle raketter over Kyiv, så kan jeg ikke se at det er noe verre å sende tilsvarende over Moskva.

Det var ikke Kyiv som slapp den første bomben. Og hvorfor i all verden skal vi akseptere at Putin's kontor er mer "off limits" enn  Zelenskyj's kontor

Og nå ser jeg at Putin er rasende;

Putin raste mot ukrainske styrker i telefon med Macron og Scholz | ABC Nyheter

Jeg håper han blir enda mer rasende, et hvert skritt mot høyere grad av raseri kan jo indikere at han har dritt seg fullstendig ut ?

Man kan jo håpe at han får et hjerneslag (drypp) fra alt raseriet, eller er det bare en skrivemåte, at han bare er irritert? Det har vel ikke utviklet seg til sånn Hitler-taler enda?

Endret 13. mars 2022 av G

[Delvis]

Abigor skrev (8 timer siden):

Han har da gjort verre ting for 20 år siden og han og hele Russland virker å ha levd greit med det siden?

Ok var på den tiden så opptatt med hard jobbing, og hadde så store personlige problemer at det meste som foregikk i tv o.l var som en diffus tåke.
Men det gjør det jo ikke bedre, heller verre vil jeg si. Putin burde hatt seg ei skikkelig skrape, det er helt sikkert.

[Enceladus]

Hva tenker dere om dette:

Artikkel oversatt til engelsk i spoiler:

Spoiler

Hu Wei: The Possible Outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War and China's Choice

Author: Hu Wei

 

 

The Russian-Ukrainian war is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will have larger global consequences than 9/11. At present, China needs to accurately study and judge the direction of this war and its impact on the international situation, be flexible, make strategic choices that conform to the long-term interests of the Chinese nation, and strive for a relatively favorable external environment for China.

Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine has caused great differences in the country, and supporters and opponents are incompatible. This article does not represent any party. In the name of a scholar, I would like to objectively analyze the possible consequences of the war and put forward countermeasures on this basis for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China.

1. Prediction of the trend of the Russian-Ukrainian war

1. Putin is unable to achieve his expected goals, and Russia is in trouble. The purpose of Putin's action is to defeat Ukraine through a blitzkrieg, replace the Ukrainian leadership, cultivate a pro-Russian government, completely solve the Ukrainian problem, and use this to divert the domestic crisis. But the blitzkrieg failed, Russia was unable to support the protracted war, and the cost of expanding the war would be high. Launching a nuclear war would completely stand on the opposite side of the world and would have no chance of winning, and the situation at home and abroad became increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army pays a huge price to occupy Kyiv and establish a puppet government, it does not mean the final victory. At present, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions, but what is not available on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action made an irreversible mistake.

2. The war may be further escalated, and it cannot be ruled out that the West will eventually be involved in the war. Although the cost of expanding the war is high, with Putin's character and power, there is a high probability that it will not let it go. The Russian-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope of Ukraine, and even include the option of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, it is impossible for the United States and Europe to stay out of it, leading to a world war or even a nuclear war. If so, it will cause a huge disaster for mankind. The United States and Russia will also have a final confrontation, and Russia's military strength will not be able to match that of NATO, and Putin will lose even more.

3. Even if Russia puts all its national strength in a desperate attempt and finally reluctantly occupies Ukraine, it is still a hot potato. From then on, Russia will bear a heavy burden and be overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to deal with Russia for a long time. Russia is subject to both Western sanctions and rebellion in Ukraine. To continue, it will be dragged down in the long run, and this cycle will not exceed a few years.

4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated by the West. Putin's blitzkrieg failed, Russia has little hope of winning, the Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented level, the domestic economy and people's livelihood have been severely affected, and anti-war and anti-Putin forces have gathered. The possibility of a mutiny in the Russian political situation cannot be ruled out. Since Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to hold on even without the loss of the Russian-Ukrainian war. If Putin ends due to civil strife, coup d'etat or other reasons, Russia will be even less likely to confront the West, it will surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia's status as a great power will come to an end.

2. Judgment on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the international pattern

1. The United States will regain the leadership of the Western world, and the West will be more united and unified. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war means the complete collapse of American hegemony, but in fact the Russian-Ukrainian war will bring France and Germany, which want to get rid of the United States, back into the NATO defense framework, and Europe's dream of independent diplomacy and independent defense will be shattered. Germany greatly increased its military budget, and Switzerland, Sweden and other countries gave up their neutrality. The "North Stream 2" has also been put on hold indefinitely, and Europe's dependence on American natural gas will inevitably increase. The United States and Europe will form a community of shared future more closely, and the United States' leadership in the Western world will rebound.

2. The "Iron Curtain" falls again, not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but will also form the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and dictatorships, and define the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain is no longer drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor is it limited to the Cold War, but a life-and-death battle between Western democracy and anti-Western democracy. The monolithic Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries, the US Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and Japan and other countries will further stick to the US. The United States will build an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.

3. The power of the West will increase significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and the influence of the United States in the non-Western world will also increase. After the Russian-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the upheaval in the Soviet Union and the East in 1991 may repeat itself, the end of ideology may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose its momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will have more "hegemony" in terms of military, values and institutions, and its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.

4. China will be more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take measures to actively respond, it will encounter further containment from the United States and the West. After Putin's fall, the United States has changed from facing two strategic competitors, China and Russia, to targeting China for strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China, Japan will become the vanguard of anti-China, South Korea will further fall to the United States, and the rest of the world will have to Choose sides and create a herd effect, Taiwan will also join the anti-China chorus. China not only faces the military encirclement of the United States and NATO, QUAD (US-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral Alliance), and AUKUS, but also faces challenges from Western values and systems.

3. China's strategic choice

1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut as soon as possible. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and the West will help to divert the attention of the United States from China. In this sense, China should be happy and even support Putin, but only if Russia cannot fall. If Putin loses power, and China is in the same boat with Putin, it will be affected by it. Unless Putin can win with China's backing, which looks bleak at the moment, and China doesn't have the strength to stand up to Russia. The basic law of international politics is "there are no eternal friends and no eternal enemies, only eternal interests". Faced with the current international situation, China can only proceed from safeguarding its own best interests, choose the lesser of two evils, and unload the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks. If it is delayed, China may lose room for maneuver and must act decisively.

2. Avoid the two sides, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China's international statements and choices are trying to take a middle line in form, and both sides are not offended, including abstaining in the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, and trying to appease Ukraine while supporting Russia. But that position actually neither meets Russia's needs, nor angers Ukraine and its supporters and sympathizers, arguing against most of the world's nations. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a wise choice, but it does not apply to this war, and China has nothing to gain this time. Given that China has consistently advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can only stand with the majority of the world's countries to avoid further isolation. This position is also beneficial for resolving the Taiwan issue.

3. To achieve a strategic breakthrough as much as possible, and not be further isolated by the West. By cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality, it will help build China's international image and take this opportunity to ease relations with the United States and the West through various efforts. Although it is difficult and requires great wisdom, it is the best choice for the future. There is a view that the European geopolitical disputes triggered by the Ukraine war will greatly delay the strategic transfer of the United States from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. This cannot be too optimistic. There are already voices in the United States: Europe is important, but China is more important, and the primary goal of the United States is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, how to use the Russian-Ukrainian war to make appropriate strategic adjustments, do everything possible to change the hostile attitude of the United States towards China, and then get rid of the isolation situation, is the top priority for China. The bottom line is to prevent the United States and the West from jointly sanctioning China.

4. Stop the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. Since Putin has clearly asked Russia's strategic deterrent forces to enter a special state of combat readiness, the Russian-Ukrainian war may go out of control. There is much help for the righteous, and little for the unjust. If Russia provokes a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world's turmoil. In the face of this crisis, and in order to reflect China's positive role as a responsible major country, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take clear actions to prevent Putin's possible risks. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin's departure from China's support will likely only end the war, at least not dare to rush to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win universal praise from the international community, which will not only help to get rid of the situation of further isolation, but also contribute to the maintenance of world peace, and may find an opportunity to improve relations with the United States and the West.

[Written on March 5, 2022. Hu Wei is the vice chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, the chairman of the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Charhar Institute, a professor and a doctoral supervisor. For extended reading, click here to view the author's article "How did Deng Xiaoping coordinate the domestic and international situations?"]

Source: Sino-American Impression

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http://k.uscnpm.org/wap/article.aspx?d=99&id=27365

 

Det kan se ut til at Kina ganske snart vil ta avstand fra Putin.

[Dragavon]

G skrev (18 minutter siden):

Man kan jo håpe at han får et hjerneslag (drypp) fra alt raseriet, eller er det bare en skrivemåte, at han bare er irritert? Det har vel ikke utviklet seg til sånn Hitler-taler enda?

Rasende? Det er jo skuespill alt sammen, han veit at alt han sier er løgn. Han veit at Macron veit at han lyger.

Alt som blir sagt av Putin og fra russsisk side er løgn for å bygge opp under påstandene deres om at de frigjør Ukraina og redder russere.

 

[G]

..

Drepte sivile brukte ikke humanitær korridor
Russiske styrker skal på fredag ha skutt mot en gruppe med kvinner og barn som holdt på å evakuere fra landsbyen Peremoha like utenfor Kyiv fredag, hevder ukrainsk militæretterretning. Det melder nyhetsbyrået AFP.

Sju personer skal ha blitt drept, inkludert et barn. Opplysningene er ikke bekreftet uavhengig.

De sju sivile brukte ikke en av de etablerte humanitære korridorene, ifølge ukrainske myndigheter.

..

https://www.nrk.no/urix/flyalarm-i-nesten-hele-ukraina-natt-til-sondag-1.15890597

Da kan en snakke om "trigger happiness".

[G]

..

– Vi er ikkje blåøygde

Philippe Sands presenterte nyleg eit forslag om å opprette ein eigen domstol for krigen i Ukraina. Bak initiativet stod også Ukrainas utanriksminister og tidlegare statsminister i Storbritannia, Gordon Brown. Tanken er å kunne stille individ til ansvar for totaliteten av krigen. Av ulike grunnar kan nemleg ikkje domstolane i Haag etterforske aggresjonslovbrotet, som tar for seg heile forløpet av ein krig, frå start til slutt.

..

Quote

Dei fire krigslovbrota
Det finst fire typar krigslovbrot i internasjonal lov:

- Folkemord, som tyder drap og handlingar med mål om å utrydde éi spesifikk gruppe med menneske. Raphael Lemkin står bak omgrepet.

- Brotsverk mot menneskeheita, som omfattar drap, deportasjon og andre grusame handlingar mot sivile. Hersch Lauterpacht står bak omgrepet.

- Krigslovbrot gjeld krigshandlingane, for eksempel kva våpen som blir brukt, og brot på lovverket rundt dette.

- Aggresjonslovbrot omfattar heile krigsperioden, og gjeld mellom anna territoriell krenking. Det var den sovjetiske kriminologen Aron Naumovich Trainin som brukte omgrepet først.

Kjelder: «Tilbake til Lemberg», samt juridisk ordbok.

..

https://www.nrk.no/kultur/xl/byen-lviv_-philippe-sands-og-skjebnens-ironi-1.15879415

Endret 13. mars 2022 av G

[Red Frostraven]

...Syria sender soldater til Ukraina.
Kan ikke NATO sende soldater og skip med kryssermissiler til grensen til Syria, Israel og/eller spørre om tillatelse fra Kypros, og i alle fall be Syria om å være så snill å la være..?

[Windfarmer]

WiiBoy skrev (8 timer siden):

Usikker på hvorfor du siterte inn meg med det svaret der.

Min kommentar hang sammen med sporet om at Russland kunne angripe flyplasser i Polen/Romania som er transit for våpenleveranser. Et angrep fra Russland inne i Polen vil føre til at Nato vil reagere. Antagelig vil reaksjonen kun være en voldsom mobilisering langs ALLE grenser Nato har mot Russland, men det kan være nok til at Putin da avslutter i Ukraina og fremstår som ansvarlig og ikke som en taper. 

Putin har pr. nå ingen utvei av situasjonen. Han overlever ikke et tap mot Ukraina, og Ukraina vil føre gerilijakrig i sikkert 20 år om de blir okkupert. En okkupasjon vil derfor fullstendig tømme Russland for militærkapasitet og være svært dyrt. 

Det er mulig at jeg klistret deg inn til noe jeg ikke burde klistre deg inn i. Men jeg fikk i det minste limt inn NATO paktens Art. 5. For øvrig synes vi å være ganske enige om det fundamentale.

[Simen1]

En uke gammelt intervju med Yanis Varoufakis, tidligere finansminister i Hellas. En uvanlig innsiktsfull økonom. Som de gamle grekerne har han også en god dose filosofi og historie. En økonom med tilhørighet på venstresiden er uvanlig nok i seg selv, men han får på en måte den politiske skalaen til å smelte bort. Absolutt verd de 18 minuttene, uansett hva man måtte mene om verten Russell Brand, som virker nokså star-struck.

 

Endret 13. mars 2022 av Simen1

[Zeph]

Sitat

Hackergruppen Anonymous med beskjed til russere

Hackergruppen Anonymous skal ha offentliggjort en beskjed som skal nå ut til russiske borgere. I beskjeden oppfordrer hacker-gruppen russerne til å stå opp mot president Vladimir Putin og fjerne ham fra makten.

Det melder The Guardian.

Beskjeden fra Anonymous er oversatt til engelsk av flere brukere på Twitter og skal blant annet inneholde denne passasjen:

It is a terrible situation that you have been put in, but your only option to prevent the impending economic collapse and potential world war is to take actions to resist the war and the regime of Vladimir Putin.

 

[Simen1]

Siden i går: 21 pansrede personell-kjøretøy, 15 biler, 12 stridsvogner, 5 artilleri, 3 helikoptere, 16 fly! og 1 anti-aircraft

[Theo343]

9 hours ago, Windfarmer said:

Så kan alle Putin tilhengerne her på bloggen redegjøre for hvilken strategi som nå skal følges.

Kan du vise litt baller og navngi de du mener er putin tilhengere i denne tråden? Det har null hensikt å påstå at dine vekselsvise meningsmotstandere er tilhengere av Putin med mindre du kan dokumentere dette som et mimimum med hvem i tråden dette skal være.

Generelt sett er slike beskyldninger uten substans forkastelig.

Endret 13. mars 2022 av Theo343

[perpyro]

Red Frostraven skrev (1 time siden):

...Syria sender soldater til Ukraina.
Kan ikke NATO sende soldater og skip med kryssermissiler til grensen til Syria, Israel og/eller spørre om tillatelse fra Kypros, og i alle fall be Syria om å være så snill å la være..?

Den Russiske hæren må begynne å bli uttynnet i rekkene når Russland må hente soldater fra Syria og andre land. Kan bli kjedelig for Syria om det svekker deres forsvarsevne og Kurderne eller andre grupper i landet tar sjansen på å vinne litt territorium uten at Assad kan få hjelp fra Russland. De cirka 200000 styrkene som var samlet langs grensene til Ukraina er inne og flere må til. Det lover ikke godt for hverken Russland eller deres allierte.

Endret 13. mars 2022 av perpyro

[Simen1]

Putin tviler på egne styrkers kampmoral. Med god grunn, de opplever jo å angripe et broderfolk. Som om nordmenn skulle ha begynt å plaffe ned svensker. Det er jo selvsagt bare traumatisk og demoraliserende.

Syrere og Tsjetsjenere har ikke noe slikt naboforhold og vil derfor mest sannsynlig ha langt høyere kampmoral. I hjemlandet satser Putin på en kombinasjon av hjernevasking og at det er enklere å få tilgivelse enn tillatelse.

[Windfarmer]

Alle bekker små:

Russisk-ortodokse prester i Nederland bryter med patriarken i Moskva | ABC Nyheter

Dette er ganske viktig. Jeg er ikke en religiøs person men kjenner litt til problemstillingen. 

Patriark Kirill er den østlige varianten av romapaven. Der er alternative patriarker i både Serbia og Hellas. Der er også en i Istanbul. Men den i Moskva har på mange måter vært sjefen.

Patriark Kirill har klistret seg tett inn på Putin. Han har også velsignet krigen mot Ukraina, den er nødvendig og er bare en del av Guds vilje. Dette kan muligens være enda et eksempel på at Putin har lykkes med å ensrette det russiske samfunn i en slik grad at han har fått Kirill til å bli en "Ja mann."

Og Putin har belønnet han, for ikke lenge siden innviet Putin og Kirill en helt ny kirke, eller som det heter; en militær katedral:

Katedralen er tilegnet "Forsvaret" og ble åpnet/innviet i 2020.

Det russiske forsvaret har fått sin egen katedral – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer

President Putin ville ikke på veggen

Mens den militære katedralen var under bygging, viste russiske medier et bilde av president Vladimir Putin i mosaikk. Det skulle etter planen settes opp på veggen i kirken, sammen med et bilde av den sovjetiske lederen Josef Stalin og andre nåværende militære og sivile ledere. 

Men ifølge russiske medier skal president Putin ha sagt nei til å havne på kirkeveggen, han mente at det var for tidlig for han å bli avbildet der.

Stalin sto bak voldsom forfølgelse av kirkens prester og medlemmer, og ødela et svært stort antall kirkebygg. Men i det russiske samfunnet har det de siste årene blitt lagt større vekt på sovjetlederens innsats i kampen mot Nazi-Tyskland i andre verdenskrig.

Jeg trodde ikke det var mulig at en kirkelig leder i det 21. århundre var i stand til å velsigne at Stalin skal avbildes og hylles inne i et Gudshus, dette er bare et nytt bevis på at gjengen i Kreml må rives opp med roten. Og for å toppe det hele, registreringsnummeret på Putins offisielle bil er A-1, Kirill har A - 2.

Gott mit uns.

[kilik]

2 hours ago, Enceladus said:

Hva tenker dere om dette:

  Reveal hidden contents

Hu Wei: The Possible Outcome of the Russia-Ukraine War and China's Choice

Author: Hu Wei

 

 

The Russian-Ukrainian war is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will have larger global consequences than 9/11. At present, China needs to accurately study and judge the direction of this war and its impact on the international situation, be flexible, make strategic choices that conform to the long-term interests of the Chinese nation, and strive for a relatively favorable external environment for China.

Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine has caused great differences in the country, and supporters and opponents are incompatible. This article does not represent any party. In the name of a scholar, I would like to objectively analyze the possible consequences of the war and put forward countermeasures on this basis for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China.

1. Prediction of the trend of the Russian-Ukrainian war

1. Putin is unable to achieve his expected goals, and Russia is in trouble. The purpose of Putin's action is to defeat Ukraine through a blitzkrieg, replace the Ukrainian leadership, cultivate a pro-Russian government, completely solve the Ukrainian problem, and use this to divert the domestic crisis. But the blitzkrieg failed, Russia was unable to support the protracted war, and the cost of expanding the war would be high. Launching a nuclear war would completely stand on the opposite side of the world and would have no chance of winning, and the situation at home and abroad became increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army pays a huge price to occupy Kyiv and establish a puppet government, it does not mean the final victory. At present, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions, but what is not available on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action made an irreversible mistake.

2. The war may be further escalated, and it cannot be ruled out that the West will eventually be involved in the war. Although the cost of expanding the war is high, with Putin's character and power, there is a high probability that it will not let it go. The Russian-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope of Ukraine, and even include the option of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, it is impossible for the United States and Europe to stay out of it, leading to a world war or even a nuclear war. If so, it will cause a huge disaster for mankind. The United States and Russia will also have a final confrontation, and Russia's military strength will not be able to match that of NATO, and Putin will lose even more.

3. Even if Russia puts all its national strength in a desperate attempt and finally reluctantly occupies Ukraine, it is still a hot potato. From then on, Russia will bear a heavy burden and be overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to deal with Russia for a long time. Russia is subject to both Western sanctions and rebellion in Ukraine. To continue, it will be dragged down in the long run, and this cycle will not exceed a few years.

4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated by the West. Putin's blitzkrieg failed, Russia has little hope of winning, the Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented level, the domestic economy and people's livelihood have been severely affected, and anti-war and anti-Putin forces have gathered. The possibility of a mutiny in the Russian political situation cannot be ruled out. Since Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to hold on even without the loss of the Russian-Ukrainian war. If Putin ends due to civil strife, coup d'etat or other reasons, Russia will be even less likely to confront the West, it will surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia's status as a great power will come to an end.

2. Judgment on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the international pattern

1. The United States will regain the leadership of the Western world, and the West will be more united and unified. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war means the complete collapse of American hegemony, but in fact the Russian-Ukrainian war will bring France and Germany, which want to get rid of the United States, back into the NATO defense framework, and Europe's dream of independent diplomacy and independent defense will be shattered. Germany greatly increased its military budget, and Switzerland, Sweden and other countries gave up their neutrality. The "North Stream 2" has also been put on hold indefinitely, and Europe's dependence on American natural gas will inevitably increase. The United States and Europe will form a community of shared future more closely, and the United States' leadership in the Western world will rebound.

2. The "Iron Curtain" falls again, not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but will also form the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and dictatorships, and define the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain is no longer drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor is it limited to the Cold War, but a life-and-death battle between Western democracy and anti-Western democracy. The monolithic Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries, the US Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and Japan and other countries will further stick to the US. The United States will build an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.

3. The power of the West will increase significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and the influence of the United States in the non-Western world will also increase. After the Russian-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the upheaval in the Soviet Union and the East in 1991 may repeat itself, the end of ideology may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose its momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will have more "hegemony" in terms of military, values and institutions, and its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.

4. China will be more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take measures to actively respond, it will encounter further containment from the United States and the West. After Putin's fall, the United States has changed from facing two strategic competitors, China and Russia, to targeting China for strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China, Japan will become the vanguard of anti-China, South Korea will further fall to the United States, and the rest of the world will have to Choose sides and create a herd effect, Taiwan will also join the anti-China chorus. China not only faces the military encirclement of the United States and NATO, QUAD (US-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral Alliance), and AUKUS, but also faces challenges from Western values and systems.

3. China's strategic choice

1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut as soon as possible. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and the West will help to divert the attention of the United States from China. In this sense, China should be happy and even support Putin, but only if Russia cannot fall. If Putin loses power, and China is in the same boat with Putin, it will be affected by it. Unless Putin can win with China's backing, which looks bleak at the moment, and China doesn't have the strength to stand up to Russia. The basic law of international politics is "there are no eternal friends and no eternal enemies, only eternal interests". Faced with the current international situation, China can only proceed from safeguarding its own best interests, choose the lesser of two evils, and unload the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks. If it is delayed, China may lose room for maneuver and must act decisively.

2. Avoid the two sides, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China's international statements and choices are trying to take a middle line in form, and both sides are not offended, including abstaining in the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, and trying to appease Ukraine while supporting Russia. But that position actually neither meets Russia's needs, nor angers Ukraine and its supporters and sympathizers, arguing against most of the world's nations. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a wise choice, but it does not apply to this war, and China has nothing to gain this time. Given that China has consistently advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can only stand with the majority of the world's countries to avoid further isolation. This position is also beneficial for resolving the Taiwan issue.

3. To achieve a strategic breakthrough as much as possible, and not be further isolated by the West. By cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality, it will help build China's international image and take this opportunity to ease relations with the United States and the West through various efforts. Although it is difficult and requires great wisdom, it is the best choice for the future. There is a view that the European geopolitical disputes triggered by the Ukraine war will greatly delay the strategic transfer of the United States from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. This cannot be too optimistic. There are already voices in the United States: Europe is important, but China is more important, and the primary goal of the United States is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, how to use the Russian-Ukrainian war to make appropriate strategic adjustments, do everything possible to change the hostile attitude of the United States towards China, and then get rid of the isolation situation, is the top priority for China. The bottom line is to prevent the United States and the West from jointly sanctioning China.

4. Stop the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. Since Putin has clearly asked Russia's strategic deterrent forces to enter a special state of combat readiness, the Russian-Ukrainian war may go out of control. There is much help for the righteous, and little for the unjust. If Russia provokes a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world's turmoil. In the face of this crisis, and in order to reflect China's positive role as a responsible major country, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take clear actions to prevent Putin's possible risks. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin's departure from China's support will likely only end the war, at least not dare to rush to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win universal praise from the international community, which will not only help to get rid of the situation of further isolation, but also contribute to the maintenance of world peace, and may find an opportunity to improve relations with the United States and the West.

[Written on March 5, 2022. Hu Wei is the vice chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, the chairman of the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Charhar Institute, a professor and a doctoral supervisor. For extended reading, click here to view the author's article "How did Deng Xiaoping coordinate the domestic and international situations?"]

Source: Sino-American Impression

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http://k.uscnpm.org/wap/article.aspx?d=99&id=27365

 

Det kan se ut til at Kina ganske snart vil ta avstand fra Putin.

Enig i analysen i at det nærmer seg en sterkere todeling mellom demokratiske og anti-demokratiske land.

Jeg tenker Russland og Kina trenger hverandre såpass sterkt nå siden den demokratiske blokken er så samlet. Russland vil nå trenge varer fra Kina som produserer alt de nå ikke kan få fra Vesten. Som verdens største oljeimportør trenger Kina Russland for å produsere alt de trenger. Russland har også mye mineraler de er avhengige av.

Viktigste for Kina blir nok å holde Russland på anti-demokratisk side. Jeg tror ikke de bryr seg så hardt om Putin, men veldig redd for en liberalisering/vestligfisering av landet. 

[Scarvo]

Nå melder NRK at nok en ukrainsk ordfører er bortført.

Ukrainske myndigheter: Enda en ordfører skal ha blitt kidnappet av Russland – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer

Endret 13. mars 2022 av Scarvo
Link.

[Simen1]

kilik skrev (7 minutter siden):

Enig i analysen i at det nærmer seg en sterkere todeling mellom demokratiske og anti-demokratiske land.

Jeg tenker Russland og Kina trenger hverandre såpass sterkt nå siden den demokratiske blokken er så samlet. Russland vil nå trenge varer fra Kina som produserer alt de nå ikke kan få fra Vesten. Som verdens største oljeimportør trenger Kina Russland for å produsere alt de trenger. Russland har også mye mineraler de er avhengige av.

Viktigste for Kina blir nok å holde Russland på anti-demokratisk side. Jeg tror ikke de bryr seg så hardt om Putin, men veldig redd for en liberalisering/vestligfisering av landet. 

Jeg har ikke lest det ennå (spart godbiten), så jeg kommenterer bare på ditt svar. Jeg er helt enig i at den demokratiske og anti-demokratiske sfæren er i ferd med å polarisere seg. Kina har blitt foret med trilliarder av dollar de siste par tiårene og vi har egentlig produsert et voldsomt men fortsatt sovende troll. Russland er ikke en stor geopolitisk trussel de neste tiårene, men Kina er et lokomotiv som er på vei til å bli det og som kjent stopper man ikke et lokomotiv med små midler. Kinas utvikling er EKSTREMT FARLIG for hele den demokratiske verdens framtid. Vi må slutte å fore trollet og begynne å tenke mer på oss selv enn på globalisering, for den globaliseringa som tidligere gikk i den demokratiske verdens favør er nå i ferd med å dreie over i Kinas favør. Kina er empirialister, akkurat som Putin, men mer tilbakeholden og strategisk, til de når en klar global militær dominans. Noe som er ventet å skje allerede rundt 2030-2035.

[Windfarmer]

Theo343 skrev (24 minutter siden):

Kan du vise litt baller og navngi de du mener er putin tilhengere i denne tråden? Det har null hensikt å påstå at dine vekselsvise meningsmotstandere er tilhengere av Putin med mindre du kan dokumentere dette som et mimimum med hvem i tråden dette skal være.

Generelt sett er slike beskyldninger uten substans forkastelig.

Nei, jeg har ingen planer om å kartlegge alle innleggene på denne strengen som for øyeblikket har 4256 innlegg, og hvor mange ulike personer som har utalt seg har jeg ikke tallmateriale på. Men at her er en del innlegg som - bevisst eller ubevisst - løper Putins ærend er det ikke tvil om. Og det er ikke "forkastelig" å påpeke dette, det er en del av ytringsfriheten som Putin ikke er noen sterk eksponent for. Kanskje du heller skal stille deg selv spørsmålet i hvilket system du ønsker å leve under der du faktisk forsøker å pålegge meg å redegjøre for og karakterisere innholdet av 4256 innlegg?