Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Kahuna]

Sak fra NRK om bevæpning av Norges flåte av F-35

https://www.nrk.no/norge/ikke-nok-vapen-til-alle-norges-kampfly-1.16908403

Vi har ikke nok AMRAAM-missiler til å utruste alle våre fly. Nye missiler er i bestilling men på grunn av krigen i Ukraina er leveringstiden lang. Dette er som forventet da det fra militært og politisk hold ble akseptert en 'dipp' i beredskap når vi gikk fra F-16 til F-35.

[Dragavon]

Sitat

 

“The vampire ball is coming to an end,” admitted Putin in an interview from an underground bunker with no windows.

The gravity of the situation dawned on the Kremlin: the West is no longer afraid of Russia’s nuclear saber rattling.

Following the latest disastrous test of Russia’s newest (and supposedly “already deployed” by the Russian strategic missile forces) intercontinental ballistic missile “Satan II” (Sarmat), which exploded during the launch, the only reliable tools left in Kremlin’s anti-West arsenal are lies and threats.

The whole Kremlin diplomatic gang, including Lavrov, Zakharova, Peskov — and now Putin himself — are desperately trying to convince us that there are still “red lines”, stopping just short of saying “nukes” (because Chairman Xi banned them from saying that).

Putin’s level of confidence in the strength of his position within Russia is obviously off the charts, with the Russian Duma just voting for the law under which participants of a coup will be sentenced to life in prison.

In other news from Russia:

The Russian government intends to increase defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in 2025 from 10.4 trillion rubles planned for this year. Total defense and internal security spending in 2025 will amount to about 40% of Russia’s budget. And that’s not including spending on propaganda, which is at record high levels as well.
After the start of the war in Ukraine, the Russian labor market lost 2 million workers aged 19 to 40, HeadHunter CEO Dmitry Sergienkov told “Kommersant”. The smarter ones left Russia, obviously, while the rest had been thrown by Putin into the furnace of the war.
The Russian government supported 2 bills that ban “childfree ideology”. The laws are spelled in such a way that a woman can be prosecuted for simply saying in public, "I don't want to have kids."
Russians will be imprisoned for up to 2 years for disrespect to authorities in internet posts.
Starting this year, all Grade 8 pupils at Russian schools have to attend a 3-day basic military training course. Grade 10 pupils will be sent to a 5-day course run by the Ministry of Defense. Classes on "Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland" start from Grade 5.

There is a growing support for banning Darwin’s theory of evolution from Russian schools.
After the Bolsheviks won the Civil War in 1922, they immediately abolished 2 school subjects in Soviet schools: history and logic.

History returned to schools 10 years later, but only as propaganda, while logic has never been returned.

As the result, neo-Bolsheviks under Putin now want to abolish biology.

A Russian Duma member stated that “Russians and Belorussians are God creatures, while Poles, Latvians and Estonians evolved from monkeys and earthworms.”

Russian Duma member Vitaly Milonov believes that Russians are not subject to biological evolution.

The Russian Duma also intends to make “Russophobia” a crime. For the crime of Russophobia, Russian courts intend to prosecute foreign citizens who are Russophobic against Russians — regardless of their citizenship.
Just let it sink in: Russia intends to prosecute western citizens for allegedly ”oppressing” other western citizens.

It’s like Taliban making a law to punish western politicians for disallowing stoning of women for not wearing a hijab.

Now, what future developments the Russian Duma has up its sleeve?

Putin’s ideologist Alexander Dugin proposes to ban sales of condoms in Russia.

Dugin insists that condoms should be only sold to those Russians who already have many children.

No condoms or contraceptive pills for:

Childless men and women over 22.
Men and women over 30 with only 1 child.
Those who are divorced.
For those who are buying and selling condoms illegally, there should be fines and prison time.

Another Dugin’s idea for the special operation "Battle for Reproduction" is mandatory checks on homosexuality for all men over 18. For this purpose, Dugin even wants to create a centralized federal commission. (How this commission is going to check men’s sexuality is beyond my imagination.)

In the Soviet Union, it was so hard to buy condoms that many men were washing them and reusing. The new generation of Russians might have to learn from their grandfathers.

What happens to Russia once Putin is finished and no longer in charge depends on how deep it’s allowed to sink into this insanity.

At certain departments, Russia has already sank deeper than the Soviet Union in 1984 — and is getting closer and closer to 1937.

Former BBC chief in Moscow Konstantin Eggert believes that Russian elites will wake up before the country descends into a complete chaos.

“There will be no revolution, no real North Korea, no civil war. In a rapidly aging and dying country with a completely decayed state apparatus, there will either be a palace coup (unlikely, but not completely excluded), or the movie “The Death of Stalin” with the victory of the most cunning apparatchik at the end. For this, a real defeat in the war is needed, recognized by both the authorities and (silently) the people. In the meantime, the degradation will continue, noticeably accelerated by the war.”

If Putin’s “vampire’s ball” ended soon, it might take Russians a couple of decades to rebuild the economy — depending on the level of Russia’s post-war repentance and the speed of repayment of its debts to Ukraine.

But if a group that wants to continue Putin’s course comes to power, Russia’s plunge into North Korea isn’t out of question.

 

https://qr.ae/p2khfe

[oddeh]

UN has new evidence of mass torture of Ukrainians by Russians
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/un-has-new-evidence-of-mass-torture-of-ukrainians-by-russians/

Svin.

[Dragavon]

 

Sitat

The west’s cautious approach seeks to avoid escalation in Ukraine. It may have the opposite effect
Putin will not stop unless he is forced to. It’s time to change the way we think about nuclear deterrence, and commit to securing victory

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/23/west-ukraine-escalation-vladimir-putin

[Dragavon]

 

[Jalla21]

Vi tåler vel denne - Flying Ivan
 

 

[Mbappe09]

!

 

 

[TheKims]

Mbappe09 skrev (10 minutter siden):

!

 

 

Ser ut som DR. EVIL fra Wish.com 

[Dragavon]

Sitat

Is it true that Russia has a large nuclear arsenal, but the exact number of missiles is unknown due to their secrecy about their military?

Sitat

 

Yes. According to official sources, Russia has just shy of 6000 missiles. However, Russia has some serious problems. The first problem is, they are always bluffing. The second problem is, they are very loose about their paperwork, claiming broken down non-function things as part of their inventory. The third problem, somewhat related, is there is rampant theft among the military and political leaders. So, on paper, Russia has the largest nuclear weapon stockpile in the world. In reality … I would not be surprised if Russia has nearly ZERO functioning nuclear weapons.

Bluffing can work really well, but it has to be used sparingly. In some ways, it is like the old bait and switch concept. With bait and switch you show people something they expect to see, then suddenly switch it out for something unexpected. This is common in American football with the play-action pass and the draw play. In a play action pass, the offense lines up in a hand off type formation, pretends they are going to hand the ball off, but then throws it instead. The draw play is the opposite, where the offense lines up in a throwing formation, but then uses a running play instead. For the bait and switch to work, the bait has to be believable. You can’t surprise the defense by changing a run play to a passing play, if it is a situation that requires a passing play. Also, you can’t surprise the defense by changing a run play to a passing play, if you are constantly trying to use the same trick. Those sudden tricks can be very effective, but they have to be used sparingly and in situations where one is expecting the opposite. Russia spends so much time bluffing on things that, other governments of the world, just don’t believe what Russia has to say. Russia may claim to have nearly 6000 nuclear weapons, but they’re government spokesmen just aren’t believable.

A good piece of evidence that they are bluffing on their nuclear stockpile, is their bluffs about other military equipment. The number tanks for example. Russia supposedly has around 15,000 tanks. However, pictures like these show up on the internet.

A bunch of rusted out hunks of garbage covered in old weeds. Notice the gaps where some of the tanks have been moved, but others left in place. Pretty good evidence that the ones left in place don’t even run anymore. On paper, Russia claims they have 15,000 tanks, but I suspect thousands of them couldn’t drive across the battle field, and many of those would explode in a ball of flame after a few firings of the main gun. There is similar evidence about their navy, artillery, and IFV’s. I see no reason to doubt their nuclear arsenal would be any different.

Then there is the constant theft. Since Russia has invaded Ukraine, all kinds of stories have come out about diesel fuel that has gone missing. Russian soldiers being issued paintball replicas instead of bullet proof armor. Millions of uniforms that were supposedly delivered but no one can find them. High power explosives, but when the package is opened they contain blocks of wood. Military rations being delivered that expired decades ago, because the fresh ones are missing. This all shows how the politicians, military leaders, and oligarchs work together to steal the Russian tax payer’s money. As I understand it, the USA has a nuclear arsenal of just over 5000 bombs/warheads, about 20% fewer than Russia. These are high tech weapons that need constant maintenance and upkeep to ensure their effectiveness. Tritium can get into the fissile material causing it to fail to have a powerful nuclear reaction. There are important, delicate, computer parts that periodically break down and need to be replaced. The fuel needs be examined and cleaned up to ensure the rocket will fly. When it comes to maintenance, the USA spends $50 billion dollars a year to maintain that arsenal. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the entire Russian military budget for decades, was less than $50 billion dollars (it has increased with the war in Ukraine). To maintain that nuclear arsenal, Russia would have to spend almost every penny in their military budget on maintaining their nuclear weapons, which they obviously haven’t. With that in mind, it seems pretty plausible that, over the last 30 years, Russia’s nuclear arsenal has fallen into a state of disrepair and is no longer functional, if it ever was. Perhaps the uranium got stolen, diluted down from weapon’s grade to power plant grade, and sold to to power plants in Leningrad or Kursk. Perhaps the uranium was never enriched to weapons grade, and Russian warheads are made with 99% U238, which isn’t going to produce a nuclear explosion. Perhaps the rocket fuel has been stolen and sold to China. Perhaps the fissile material has been contaminated and will no longer explode properly. Perhaps the delicate hardware has broken down and not been replaced, so the weapons will just detonate right where they’re sitting, instead of flying to their intended target. There’s a lot of options for how the Russian nuclear arsenal could have become ineffective, and a lot of reason to believe it has or will happen.

So, the answer is, yes, it is true that on paper Russia has a large nuclear arsenal. It is also true that very little is known about that nuclear arsenal because of their military secrecy. Russia’s military likes to bluff, but they bluff so much, people think they’re ALWAYS bluffing and very few people actually believe what the Russian military and government are saying. Second, they are terrible about paperwork. They have reports and paperwork showing tens of thousands of pieces of military equipment. However, when people go out into the field to examine and verify the reports, we get pictures of rusted out hunks of junk that don’t actually work. Third, over the past decades Russia has NEVER devoted enough money to maintaining a nuclear arsenal of its claimed size and Russian politicians, oligarchs, and military leaders are so corrupt they are constantly working together to steal from the government. Thus, it is impossible to know how much, if any, of that nuclear arsenal will actually function as intended.

 

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[Penny]

3 hours ago, Jalla21 said:

Vi tåler vel denne - Flying Ivan
 

 

Stildommeren sier 3.5, not great, not terrible

[Thor.]

The Kremlin Pulled Sailors Off The Decrepit Aircraft Carrier ‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ And Sent Them To Fight, And Die, In Ukraine
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/09/22/the-kremlin-pulled-sailors-off-the-decrepit-aircraft-carrier-admiral-kuznetsov-and-sent-them-to-fight-and-die-in-ukraine/
 

Admiral Kuznetsov, the Russian navy’s only aircraft carrier, hasn’t deployed in eight years—and it’s increasingly unlikely it will ever deploy again. That helps explain why, in recent months, the Kremlin reportedly reassigned the aging ship’s sailors to the army—and sent them into battle in Ukraine.

[Simen1]

"Now, as we near the third winter of this war, Russia is once again trying to destroy our energy system, and this fall, they’re being even more cynical. They’re preparing to target our nuclear power plants, three of them – we have this information, and we have proof of this," said Zelensky

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3909330-russias-casualty-toll-in-ukraine-up-by-1250.html

[Snikpellik]

Danish PM to allies: Stop talking about ‘red lines’ and let Ukraine strike Russia
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-prime-minister-mette-federiksen-allies-russia-ukraine-war-red-line-strike/

Sitat

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called Monday for Ukraine’s allies to greenlight the use of donated weapons for long-range strikes against Russia.

“My suggestion is, let us end the discussion about red lines,” Frederiksen told Bloomberg in an interview that aired Monday. Ukraine’s benefactors had made a “mistake” by engaging in handwringing over Kyiv hitting targets inside Russia, she added, as doing so had given Moscow “too good a card in their hands.”

Arms-donating countries, particularly the U.S., have set restrictions on Ukraine’s use of their weapons in long-range strikes, due to fears of being dragged further into a conflict with Russia.

Alle de nordiske landene har nå tydelig sagt at Ukraina kan bruke vestlige våpen mot mål i Russland.

[Dragavon]

 

[Dragavon]

 

[JK22]

Nå er det soleklart. Trump aktet å ødelegge det amerikanske alliansesystemets troverdighet. Han er villig til å svikte Ukraina og deretter den europeiske sikkerheten til fordel for Putin, og dermed setter seg i klar konflikt med den etablerte republikanerpolitikergarden som allerede er i ferd med å reagere mot hans planer om å erstatte skattlegging med tolløkning, det må sies at det er meget bemerkende at Trump virker helt døv og ekstremt umotagelig for eksperterklæring om hvordan det egentlig er omkring toll i lang, lang, lang tid. Så det er ikke bare hans narsissistiske personlighetstrekk og lav intelligens samt total mangel på skamfølelse som utgjør essensen i ham, det er også en usedvanlig seig selvoverbevisning som virker helt uangripelig - slik at det ikke er mulig å når ham, langt mindre forhandle med ham. 

Dessverre for Zelenskyj har amerikanerne og europeerne blitt noe skeptisk mot hans strategiplan som vi får ikke større detaljer om, samtidig som militæreksperter er i ferd med å banke inn sunn vett i politikerne om at den ukrainske utholdenhetsevnen ikke lenge kan garanteres ved å sultefore det ukrainske forsvaret. Den europeiske fellesevnen for å styrke Ukraina lot til å ha kollapset, Scholz synliggjøre hans motstand mot å gi mer hjelp samtidig som Tyskland er havnet i en voldsom resesjon pga. den katastrofale energipolitikken. Macron har kastet Frankrike ut i krisestemning med hans ekstraordinær stupiditet. Storbritannia maktet ikke mer; Brexit og økonomiske problemer er ved å bli for mye for å utvide videre støtte. Spania er i ferd med å kastes ut i interne motsetninger mens Italia har snart ikke mer å gi. 

Opprustningen har strandert. Sanksjonsregimet har blitt en pinlig fiasko. Vesten har mistet meget mye innflytelse som et resultat av sin Ukrainastrategi. Levekostnadskrisen som først og fremst skyldes en naturlig utjevning fordi det er nå slutt på tilgang på billig arbeidskraft i andre land slik at kjøpekraften i vestlige land skåres ned med hele førti år - har fått store politiske konsekvenser. Det grønne skiftet hadde hendt i et dårlig tidspunkt og blitt for sterk. Den tyske energipolitikken da atomkraft og diversifisering av energitilgang var forkastet i 2010 etter Fukushimaulykken - som er mulig der slutten på Vestens verdensdominans startet - hadde blitt en ufattelig katastrofe; fornybar energi virker ikke, nyliberalistisk prispraksis ved å sette strøm i børs gikk svært galt. En generasjon av "velferdspolitikere" hadde oppstått i de siste tretti år, som gjør det veldig vanskelig å reversere til mer balanserte statsbudsjetter. Og sist, men ikke minst; en kombinasjon av latskap, forgubbing og barnløshet samt ukontrollert levekostnadsstigning - har slått Vesten ut. 

På en måte er Vesten blitt "verdens syke mann" som det ottomanske imperiet hadde vært ved år 1900. 

Og Zelenskyj har dessuten blitt et problem. Han har demonstrert en villighet til å kjempe "til sist ukrainer" samtidig som han hadde nektet å påla det ukrainske folket for store byrder inntil det var for sent, og hans alternative strategiske valg i Churchill-stil mer og mer virker uforentlige med de militærsrealistiske forholdene. Det er tydelig for alle at Ukraina har løpt ut for alle alternativer, det russiske folkets ufattelige fanatiske natur ved å drukne ukrainerne i egne blod og manglende evne for å fatte at de drepe sine egne brødre, har blitt for mye. To tredjedeler av landets strømproduksjon er slått ut. Hundretusener er drept og skadet. En fjerdedel av befolkningen er stukket av. 

Dessuten må det gjøres klart at Vestens manglende støtte er "for lite, for sent" og for sterkt defensivt, samtidig som den største feilen er å ikke ville straffe ikke-vestlige aktører inntil det var for sent. Vi skulle ha reagert langt mye strengere mot Tyrkia. Og enda mer da Iran solgt tusener på tusener av droneflyene til Russland. Man var ikke villig til å sette hardt mot hardt, og var ekstremt naiv i møte med umoralske grådighet, som er blitt et meget stort problem. Utkontrakteringsøkonomien har smadret den vestlige opprustningsevnen, kineserne har påført USA et stort nederlag ved å stoppe salg av sjeldne metaller... 

Verden har blitt korrupt, og det er Putins styrke. Trump er korrupt i likhet med ham. 

[oddeh]

[torbjornen]

Snikpellik skrev (4 timer siden):

Danish PM to allies: Stop talking about ‘red lines’ and let Ukraine strike Russia
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-prime-minister-mette-federiksen-allies-russia-ukraine-war-red-line-strike/

Alle de nordiske landene har nå tydelig sagt at Ukraina kan bruke vestlige våpen mot mål i Russland.

Eg elskar Mette Fredriksen. Ho er ein klar og tydeleg statsminister, i motsetnad til f.eks. Jonas Gahr Støre.

[Mannen med ljåen]

Er hun like flink til å følge saker nøye? Der er Støre uovertruffen.

Apropos røde linjer som er hellige og alle må respektere. Hva om vi erklærer at Ukrainas riksgrense faktisk er en rød linje, og gir Russland ett døgn på å trekke seg tilbake til sin egen side?

[torbjornen]

Biden vil kjempe til siste ukrainar. Trump vil svikte Ukraina. Begge er opptekne med at forholdet til Russland skal normaliserast. Og mange land i Europa er lei av krigen, og/eller har interne problem.

Samstundes er det grenser for kor lenge Russland kan halde krigen gåande slik som i dag. Putin satsar på å ta mest mogeleg av Ukraina før januar, og håpar på at Trump blir president. Håpet er at Kamala Harris vinn, og at ho gjennomfører ein offensiv Ukraina-politikk som gjev trua tilbake på at Ukraina kan vinne krigen og få kontroll over dei internasjonale grensene som alle var einige om for 30 år sidan.