Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

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AI sammendrag:

Spoiler

1. Financial Support for Ukraine

• US Financial Aid: The discussion begins by noting the approval of $61 billion in military aid from the US to Ukraine, which has been critical in providing munitions and long-range weaponry. However, despite this assistance, Ukraine's financial needs are far larger. The war is costing approximately $100 billion annually, and the approved aid does not cover this expense.

• Seizing Russian Assets: There was an initiative from the G7 to leverage frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, involving a $50 billion program that would securitize long-term interest from those assets. However, this effort has stalled. The conversation speculates that optimism surrounding a potential victory of the Biden-Harris administration in the next US presidential election might have slowed this process. There is concern about the potential repercussions of a Trump win in the 2024 election, as he has expressed intentions to cut support to Ukraine. This would leave a significant gap in the $100 billion annual funding Ukraine needs to sustain the war.

• Private Creditors and Debt Restructuring: One positive development is an agreement between Ukraine and private creditors to restructure $23 billion of Ukraine's debt. This restructuring includes a write-off, an extension of maturity, and a reduction in interest payments, saving Ukraine $12 billion. However, compared to the scale of Ukraine's annual financial needs, this contribution is minimal and does not significantly alter the overall financial outlook.

• Long-term Strategy: The speakers express frustration that Western financial aid to Ukraine has been reactive and piecemeal. They argue that G7 countries need to create a long-term funding strategy to ensure Ukraine has the financial resources to defend itself and ultimately win the war. The current approach is described as inadequate, with Western nations often hesitating or delaying necessary financial support.

2. Sanctions on Russia

• Effectiveness of Sanctions: The conversation explores the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia and their impact on Russian oligarchs. Oleg Deripaska, a prominent Russian oligarch, recently criticized Putin during a visit to Japan, indicating possible dissatisfaction among Russia’s wealthy elite. However, there’s uncertainty about whether such criticisms are widespread.

• Secondary Sanctions: The G7 has imposed secondary sanctions to target countries or entities that help Russia evade sanctions. This includes sanctions on countries like China, Turkey, and Middle Eastern states that have facilitated trade with Russia. Additionally, Russia’s MoEX (Moscow Exchange), which handles a large portion of Russia’s foreign exchange transactions, has been sanctioned, further complicating trade for Russia. These sanctions have contributed to the weakening of the Russian ruble, which now has multiple exchange rates, a sign of economic instability. The discussion suggests that these economic pressures may be contributing to discontent among Russian elites and business leaders.

• Impact on Trade: The sanctions, particularly on third-party countries, have led to a significant reduction in trade with Russia. As sanctions on Russian foreign exchange transactions take hold, countries are finding it harder to conduct trade, which is reflected in the drop of the ruble’s value.

3. Military Operations and the Kers Incursion

• Ukrainian Offensive in Kursk: The Ukrainian incursion into the Russian region of Kursk has not significantly altered the tactical situation in the eastern front, particularly in Donetsk. However, it has disrupted Russian military operations by forcing Russia to shift units from other regions to address the incursion. This shift may spoil Russia’s future military plans, even if the immediate effects on the battlefield are minimal. The repositioning of forces complicates Russia’s ability to plan long-term operations, particularly after the current offensive in Bakhmut and other eastern areas concludes.

• Operational Impact on Russia: The speakers discuss how the Kursk incursion has forced Russia to pull troops from lower-priority areas, impacting their operational strategy. Russia follows a military doctrine where different units are rotated in and out of combat to prevent exhaustion. The Ukrainian incursion has disrupted this rotation, particularly in the South and Luhansk regions, which could affect Russia’s ability to sustain future operations. This disruption may prevent Russia from executing future campaigns as planned, even if the tactical situation on the ground remains unchanged.

• Russian Military Doctrine: There is also an in-depth discussion of Russian military doctrine, particularly the concept of "operational art" (operatsionnoye iskusstvo), which involves planning campaigns in a way that prevents exhaustion by rotating combat units. The Ukrainian incursion has caused Russia to strip away elements of this doctrine, degrading their future operational capabilities. The Russian forces may not be able to implement their intended future campaigns as planned, particularly if they lack fresh troops to rotate into combat.

4. Putin’s Domestic Challenges and Concerns

• Avoiding General Mobilization: One of Putin’s key domestic challenges is avoiding a general mobilization that would involve conscripting young men from Moscow and St. Petersburg, which could lead to a political backlash. The Russian government is conscious of the fact that bringing the realities of the war to these major cities could spark widespread dissent, as the impact of casualties becomes harder to conceal.

• Political Pressure on Putin: There is significant domestic pressure on Putin and his military leaders to deliver results before the winter, especially in the Donbass region. The conversation notes that Putin’s push for military victories in certain areas, such as Bakhmut, is driven more by political concerns than by strategic importance. Despite the political desire for victories, these objectives are causing significant Russian casualties, with some analysts suggesting that Ukraine is deliberately drawing out Russian forces to inflict maximum damage.

• Incorporating Veterans into Politics: The Kremlin is aware of the political liability that war veterans, particularly those with life-altering injuries, could pose. As a result, they have launched the “Times of Heroes” initiative to integrate these veterans into political life. This is seen as a way to co-opt potential dissent by giving veterans a role in governance, thereby preventing them from becoming a critical voice against the war.

• Sanctions on Russian Regional Elections: Putin has avoided drawing attention to the conflict in Kursk, including by keeping the current acting governor in place, despite the incursion. This strategy seems designed to normalize the situation in Kursk and avoid raising public awareness of the military setbacks in the region.

5. Western Military and Political Strategy

• US and Western Support: There’s a lengthy discussion on the West’s military and political strategy, particularly from the United States. The conversation highlights mixed signals from the U.S., with some policymakers pushing for stronger support for Ukraine, while others advocate for negotiations. The debate over the provision of advanced missiles to Ukraine is mentioned, with some officials fearing escalation if Ukraine uses these missiles to strike Russian territory.

• Impact of U.S. Presidential Elections: The upcoming U.S. presidential election is seen as critical to Ukraine’s future. If Trump wins, there is concern that U.S. support for Ukraine could diminish drastically. On the other hand, a Harris victory would likely continue the current policy, although with potential shifts in tone and strategy.

• Negotiation vs. Military Victory: There is concern that some voices in the West are pushing for a negotiated settlement, which could involve pressuring Ukraine to concede territory, such as Crimea. This sentiment is juxtaposed with military realities, where Russia’s control over Ukraine remains limited, and its military has suffered significant losses. However, the hesitation to supply all necessary military aid, like long-range missiles, is seen as a sign of a half-hearted commitment to ensuring Ukraine’s victory.

• NATO and EU Membership for Ukraine: The discussion also touches on the issue of Ukraine’s potential NATO and EU membership, which would be a significant victory for Ukraine, even if it cannot reclaim all its territory. There is concern that countries like Hungary or Slovakia could block Ukraine’s NATO application, leading to a diplomatic impasse. These issues need to be addressed now to avoid complications at the end of the war.

• Western Inattention to Other Conflicts: The conversation also mentions other regions where Russia is making gains, such as Georgia and Moldova. Elections in both countries could result in increased Russian influence, but there is little sign that the West is paying sufficient attention to these developments.

6. Concluding Thoughts

The speakers express concern that Russia’s full attention is on Ukraine, while Western nations view the conflict as just one of many priorities. For Russia, this war is its number one focus, while the West remains distracted by other issues like the economy and domestic politics. The lack of a cohesive long-term strategy for supporting Ukraine financially and militarily, and the hesitance to engage in broader strategic planning (e.g., for post-war NATO membership), could ultimately benefit Russia.

In summary, the video emphasizes the need for more comprehensive and decisive financial and military support for Ukraine, highlighting concerns about the West’s piecemeal approach, Russia’s domestic challenges, and the broader geopolitical stakes at play. The conversation also touches on the potential implications of future U.S. elections, which could dramatically alter the course of the war.

 

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[Simen1]

paatur skrev (5 timer siden):

At sanksjoner funker et bare en ønske tenkning desverre.

Flere anekdoter hjelper ikke. Det sanksjonene må måles på er hvor godt den rammer den russiske økonomien. Økonomiske tall som tidligere var ganske transparente, hang på greip med hverandre, kryssjekking osv har nå blitt hemmeligstemplet, tilslørt og henger ikke på greip. Ting som gullreserver og statlige fond i utlandet henger ikke på greip lengre med de tallene som presenteres. En valuta som det knapt drives handel med lengre har ikke lengre en tydelig valutakurs. Følg litt med på Joe Bloggs og sjekk hans kilder. Der ser du uavhengige gode analyser forklart på en relativt enkel måte av en mann som har peiling. Alle piler peker i samme retning: russlands økonomi er sterkt skadeskutt og sanksjonene har en betydelig del av æren for det. Det er derfor Putin jobber så hardt for å få de avskaffet. At du finner anekdoter, noen hull i sanksjonene, sier null og niks om de fungerer i den store sammenhengen eller ei.

Russiske propagandister deler seg stort sett i to grupper angående sanksjonene. De som hevder det ikke fungerer og som dermed argumenterer for at da kan de like gjerne fjernes... Og de som hevder at de fungerer og er urettferdig, rammer feil osv, så de like gjerne kan fjernes. Den røde tråden er uansett at russiske propagandister bruker sprikende argumenter som i sin tur skaper tvil, men fellesnevneren er at de vil ha bort sanksjonene. Det avslører at sanksjonene egentlig virker. Et godt ordtak er aldri stol på en russer. Siden du skjuler deg bak anonymitet så har jeg ingen måte å vite om du er en av disse pro-russerne, eller du bare har bitt på et av deres argumenter og forsøker å spre det videre. Det du gjør er i praksis å gå ærend for Putin. Bevisst eller ubevisst.

Endret 15. september av Simen1

[Gjest MKII]

9 hours ago, Enceladus said:

Noen tanker om dette folkens?

 

Jeg har ikke mer kompetanse på dette enn det jeg leser her i tråden, ser og hører på Youtube-video'er, leser i artikler om krigen og lignende. Men jeg blir overrasket om raZZland klarer å opprettholde trykket frem til omkring årsskiftet 2025/2026 tatt i betraktning hvor dårlig stillt raZZland er materiellt sett med våpen tilbake fra WW2, og så desperate etter folk at de henter 200 personer til kjøttbølger tilbake fra Afrika og lignende. Når de tar seg bryet med å omdisponere så små mengder folk når de trenger SÅ mange, tolker jeg det som et tegn på at de allerede nå sliter veldig. Det er også flere andre rapporter om manglende personell på fronten fra raZZisk side...

De et sted mellom de store og de enorme jokerene i regnestykket er støtten fra vesten i form av materiell, og rekrutering til ukrainske styrker❗Jeg tror det er der i det minste de største usikkerhetsmomentene ligger. Når det gjelder vestlig bidrag og usikkerhetsmomentet i det påvirkes de nok særlig både av Trump og MAGA-sekten og republikanske overløpere i USA med populismen og logringen deres for "putler", og fremveksten av særlig høyreekstreme partier i Europa, og til dels overløpere som Orban i Ungarn og "Ergogal" i kalkunlandet.

[Mbappe09]

 

[Mbappe09]

Får opp mye dritt på Twitter, prakteksempel er denne type nyheter som sprer seg som ild. Det gjør det heller ikke bedre når Tristan Tate (broren til Andrew Tate) spyr direkte pro-russisk propaganda. Elon Musk lar denne sykdommen spre seg bevisst. 

 

[Gjest MKII]

Nytt atentatforsøk mot Trump:

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Skudd avfyrt i nærheten av Trump

Secret Service løsnet skudd mot en væpnet person i nærheten av Donald Trump. FBI tror hendelsen kan ha vært et attentat.

 

https://www.nrk.no/urix/skudd-avfyrt-i-naerheten-av-trump-1.17044532

https://nettavisen.no/nyheter/trump-kampanjen-trump-i-sikkerhet-etter-skudd-i-narheten-av-ham/s/5-95-2019189

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/trolig-nytt-attentatforsok/81944983

https://www.dagbladet.no/studio/nyhetsstudio/687?post=169980

https://www.dagbladet.no/video/se-na-secret-service-kaller-inn-til-pressekonferanse/KZiHO84X

Endret 15. september av Gjest MKII

[Enceladus]

Spennende det som skjer i Kursk nå.

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The development in the Glushkovo area, Kursk region, in Russia are very intriguing. Both on an operational but also on a strategic level. Russian channels report that the village Veseloe has been taken by Ukrainian forces, which based on the videos we have seen are very likely. It brings Ukrainian forces in close range with Glushkovo and threatens to split this pocket south of the Seym river to be split in two. Furthermore and even worse for Russians, it is an assault into Russia's rear of their ongoing counteroffensive, whose results are murky at best. Aside from 3 villages and some failed assaults further east, we have seen nothing what backs up Russian gains in Kursk. It wouldn't matter much either when reflecting the following point. Having Russians commit resources in Kursk has been most certainly the very idea by the Ukrainian high command. There is is also something more going on. It is possible that Ukrainians were only waiting for this Russian counter offensive operation. It not only forces Russians to finally commit their troops, including their reserves, in that sector, but also on top expose their artillery positions. Ukrainians now know what the Russian tactical intents are. They in return can now effectively counter them. It is an highly mobile war, far from the trench wars in the Donbas. It forces Russians to fight a war in which they utterly fail. On an operational level, this is how I would proceed against the Russian army. The Ukrainian operations south of Glushkovo are only backing up this assumption. The Ukrainian army obviously prepared for that gambit and are now pushing into another soft spot of the Russian defense, while Russians mindlessly run against Ukrainian fortifications. To say that Russians have "no good plans" is an understatement, both in Kursk, but also in the Donbas region. As always, Russians are just wildly slashing and hammering like mindless slaves into their enemy, hoping to overwhelm them only by numbers, and in the process consume insanely high resources with substantial amounts of them being destroyed. It only reaffirms that Ukraine, strategically, is still in the defense mode, but never fails to exploit a situation where it can inflict painful damage upon Russians, where they didn't prepare an Ukrainian operation.

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[toreae]

Gjest MKII skrev (På 15.9.2024 den 11:37 PM):

Nytt atentatforsøk mot Trump:

Skytingen nær Trump hadde ingenting med Trump å gjøre, og Trump var aldri i fare, etter det jeg har fått med meg.

Rettelse. Det var vist Trump det handlet om.

Endret 17. september av toreae

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AI sammendrag:

Spoiler

1. Frontline Update in Kursk Oblast

• Ukrainian Response to Russian Counteroffensive: The video discusses a Ukrainian column of armored vehicles crossing the Russian border into a new location in the Kursk Oblast, attempting to split the Russian counteroffensive. Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine was expecting the Russian counterattack.

• Russian Counteroffensive: The village of Korono has been the focus of Ukraine's operations for the past five weeks. However, Russia was able to resupply and reinforce the area, launching a counteroffensive south from Korono and east from the Glushkovo district. Ukraine was prepared and launched its own counterattack to cut off Russian forces.

• Troop Numbers and Attrition Warfare: Russia has significantly increased its troop presence in the region, growing from 10,000 to 45,000. The Ukrainian strategy remains focused on attrition, making Russia expend resources and sustain heavy casualties in efforts to retake its own territory. Russia's approach of bombarding its own cities and settlements to deny Ukraine control of occupied areas is noted.

2. Prisoner Exchanges and Human Impact

• A light-hearted moment occurs when Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) are told that Ukraine has invaded Russia, resulting in surprised reactions after being held captive for over a year.
• Prisoner Exchanges: Videos show the return of Ukrainian and Russian POWs. The Ukrainians are joyful and emotional, having been in captivity for more than two years, while the young Russian conscripts appear less enthusiastic.

3. Russian and Ukrainian Military Positions

• Donetsk Region: Russian offensives in Donetsk have slowed, with Ukraine's incursions in the Kursk Oblast reportedly disrupting Russian advances. Ukraine continues to fall back from specific areas under pressure but remains resilient in key locations like the small village of Vuhledar.
• Russian Casualties and Failed Assaults: The video highlights how Russia continues to push forward despite suffering massive casualties and losing significant resources.

4. US-Ukraine Long-Range Strike Discussions

• Debate over Long-Range Strikes: Ukrainian allies are pressuring the US to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles like ATACMS for strikes deeper into Russian territory. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is resisting this move. The UK Prime Minister and US President Biden discussed the issue, and while Biden hasn’t given the green light, discussions continue.

• Putin’s Reaction: Putin warned that allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western weapons would mean direct NATO involvement in the war. His speech suggests he is not overly concerned about current Ukrainian drone strikes but would treat precision missile attacks as a different escalation.

• Ukraine’s Desire for Long-Range Missiles: President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine needs these weapons for survival. The Biden administration is still maintaining its restrictions, though there are theories that these restrictions might be lifted discreetly if Ukraine begins striking Russia.

5. Geopolitical and Election Implications

• US Elections and Russian Strategy: The video speculates that Putin is unlikely to escalate to nuclear weapons before the US elections, as he is hopeful for a Trump victory. Trump and his allies have signaled they would end US support for Ukraine and potentially allow Russia to keep the territory it has seized. The video argues that Russia may instead provoke the US by attacking military bases in the Middle East to hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances in the upcoming election.

• Republican Campaigns and Political Exploitation: The video also addresses how Trump and Republican leaders are politicizing the deaths of US service members for electoral gain, comparing it to potential future Russian provocations.

6. Kremlin TV and Nuclear Threats

• On Russian state TV, Kremlin-aligned commentators discuss Ukraine's invasion of Russian territory, but responses vary, with some maintaining that the war is going according to plan. There are also references to potential nuclear strikes, although these threats are framed as part of Russia's broader military strategy rather than imminent action.

7. International Reactions and Aid

• Foreign Aid: Spain, Finland, and Latvia continue to provide military aid to Ukraine. Spain notably vetoed a Hungarian bid to purchase a train group due to concerns over Hungary’s pro-Russian stance.
• India’s Role: India secured the release of 45 Indian nationals who had been tricked into joining the Russian military, signaling the growing complexity of international diplomatic relations in the conflict.

8. Economic Impact on Russia

• Russian Economy in Crisis: Russia’s Central Bank raised the key interest rate to 19% due to inflation, with the ruble devaluing rapidly. Restaurants in Russia are adding surcharges due to the economic instability, highlighting the deepening crisis within Russia.

9. Ukrainian Resilience and Production

• Artillery Production: Ukraine has begun producing its own 155mm NATO-standard artillery shells, further improving its military self-sufficiency.
• IMF Support: The International Monetary Fund approved a $1.1 billion tranche for Ukraine, with conditions for further economic reforms.

10. Conclusion and Future Outlook

• The video ends with an optimistic message about Ukraine’s resilience and the continuing support from international partners. The focus is on the long-term nature of the conflict, with the expectation that the war could continue for years, especially as Ukraine adapts to its new circumstances.

In summary, the video provides a thorough update on the latest military developments in Ukraine, geopolitical dynamics, and the impact of Western aid and sanctions on the conflict.

 

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[Kahuna]

Enceladus skrev (8 timer siden):

Spennende det som skjer i Kursk nå.

Definitivt!

Jeg ser tegn på at Ukraina nå innfrir mine forventninger til sin Enda Spesiellere Militæroperasjon. Altså at dette er først og fremst et politisk grep for å tvinge Putin til å reagere. SÅ benytter de den russiske reaksjonen til å gjøre mer *F* 

De russiske styrkene som har blitt isolert sør for elva Seym er nå i ferd med å bli desperate og prøver å bryte seg ut *gjennom* de ukrainske linjene, ukraina angriper dem nå fra egen side av grensen for å dele russernes område i to. Eller heller *nesten* i to, ukraina ser ofte ut til å foretrekke en delvis fremfor en fullstendig omringing. Lurer på om dette kan ha med russernes lynne å gjøre. En russisk soldat som er omringet kan forventes å slåss til siste slutt, etterlat en åpning og han kan skytes mens han desperat løper etter åpningen. De 'nye' russiske styrkene som piskes fremover for å kaste ut ukrainerne/redde egne innestengte tropper,  stanger dels i forberedte forsvar, dels falles de i ryggen når ukraina beveger seg rundt på flankene.

Det eneste som kan hindre ukrainerne å gang på gang utmanøvrere russerne i Kursk er om russerne trekker seg tilbake og etablerer en solid forsvarslinje utenfor der ukrainerne opererer nå. Men da har de oppgitt deler av Kursk og som vi allerede ser, det er ikke en akseptabel politisk situasjon for Putin.

 

Jeg synes fortsatt Pokrovsk ser ut som en potensiell felle. Russiske milbloggere er også bekymret over muligheten. At Pokrovsk er viktig for ukrainsk logistikk taler *for* at det er en bevisst felle. Feller virker best når åtet er noe byttet *virkelig* ønsker seg.