Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Brother Ursus]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/21/kremlin-officials-think-ukraine-s-kursk-incursion-could-continue-for-months-and-they-want-to-convince-russians-this-is-the-new-normal

Kremlin officials think Ukraine’s Kursk incursion could continue for months — and they want to convince Russians this is the ‘new normal’

Two weeks into the Ukrainian army’s foray into the Kursk region, officials in Moscow are over the initial shock and are now trying to spin the ongoing fighting on Russian territory as yet another “new normal,” sources close to the Putin administration and the government told Meduza. All of the officials Meduza spoke to believed the fighting in the Kursk region could continue for several months, however, the authorities are loath to cancel the upcoming gubernatorial elections. Sources also said that Kremlin propagandists are priming public opinion to normalize sending conscripts into embattled border areas, all while officials weigh the pros and cons of another round of mobilization. 

 

Rød linje? Hvilken røde linje? 😄

[oddeh]

Brother Ursus skrev (8 minutter siden):

https://english.nv.ua/business/real-inflation-in-russia-surpasses-70-since-start-of-war-russian-media-reports-50444640.html

Russian inflation soars past 70% since Ukraine invasion, surpassing official figures

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, inflation in Russia, based on a real consumer basket, has surged 71.4%, according to an Aug. 20 report by The Moscow Times, citing data from Romir research holding.

The price index for everyday goods, including food, beverages, and personal hygiene items, surged by over 70% from February 2022 to July 2024.

EU har konservativt estimert 30% i året over alle sektorer, og tidligere estimat fra andre eksperter har vært 60%. Nå 71,4% over nesten tre år. Men dette gjelder så vidt jeg kan se bare husholdningsvarer. Det gjør likevel utvilsomt hverdagen vanskeligere for flere titalls millioner russere (Russland hevder selv noen få millioner, FN noen titalls, og andre hevder så mange som halve befolkningen eller nesten 70 millioner) som lever under fattigdomsgrensen. Økte utbetalinger fra myndighetene står heller ikke i stil til prisøkningene. Det er nesten bare industriarbeidere som nyter godt av det. Selv russiske leger sliter med å ha råd til regningene.

Styringsrenta er også veldig høy. Kjedelig å ha lån i Mordor nå. Krisetiltakene  i 2022 pga sanksjoner holdt bare ett års tid.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/interest-rate

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-kursk-ukraine-incursion-colonel-general-alexander-lapin-1942403

Top General Behind Russia's 2022 Lyman Retreat Blamed For Kursk Failures

Colonel General Alexander Lapin, a prominent Russian commander who was criticized for his handling of the Kremlin's war effort in 2022, got rid of a council made up of various Russian authorities tasked with securing the Russian border with Ukraine's Sumy region, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

[Brother Ursus]

Just now, oddeh said:

Styringsrenta er også veldig høy. Kjedelig å ha lån i Mordor nå. Krisetiltakene  i 2022 pga sanksjoner holdt bare ett års tid.

Russerne er mindre belånte enn de fleste andre, men en drøy tredel av russerne (så vidt jeg husker) har tross alt lån, og har på mindre enn tre år gått fra å betale 6,25% rente til over 18% - nesten kredittkortrenter. Antall lån som godkjennes faller også voldsomt. Samtidig faller priser på bolig, mens prisen på bla. bil stiger (vil dermed tro at også bruktbil stiger), så noen vil nok kunne likvidere, men langtifra alle. Hadde jeg vært russer hadde jeg gjort det for lengst, rett etter at krigen brøt ut.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3897023-russian-serviceman-blows-up-headquarter-with-stormtrooper-officers-and-defects-to-ukraine-diu.html

This was reported by the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Ukrinform reports.

Historien om den russiske droneoperatøren "Silver", som bombet sitt eget hovedkvarter pga. offiserenes krigsforbryter, som mange mente var for god til å være sann, skal nå være bekreftet av ukrainsk etterretning.

[Brother Ursus]

https://kyivindependent.com/kursk-incursion-breaks-russias-attempts-to-dictate-peace-terms-boosts-ukraines-leverage/

Kursk incursion ‘breaks’ Russia's attempts to dictate peace terms, boosts Ukraine’s leverage

"Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast has derailed Russia's plans to dictate a peace deal on its terms and strengthened Ukraine's hand in any future negotiations, Ukrainian officials and analysts say."

"The Kursk incursion "is breaking Russia's negotiating strategy," Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, a regular talking head on Ukrainian state TV, told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia had previously expected to impose its peace terms on Ukraine because it held the initiative by gradually gaining ground in the Donbas since late 2023, but the Kursk incursion is changing that trend, he added."

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.dagens.com/news/russian-media-claims-invisible-ukrainian-soldiers-as-explanation-for-kursk-advances

Russian Media Claims "Invisible" Ukrainian Soldiers as Explanation for Kursk Advances

"Russian media suggests Ukrainian forces are using "invisible" uniforms supplied by the West as part of a supposed international conspiracy."

"Retired military intelligence officer Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj wrote on X:

"At night, sounds travel for many kilometers, which is why the sound of Ukrainian engines on the night before the operation from August 5 to 6, 2024 was clearly audible in the Sumy district."

Even if the Ukrainians had used special camouflage for their soldiers and equipment, the presence of Ukrainian forces near and across the Russian border would be hard to miss."

 

Usynlige uniformer. Også kjent som kamuflasje.

[Brother Ursus]

 

Var denne postet tidligere? Uansett er det så tåpelig at det fortjener å gjentas. Med mindre de spruter helligvannet sitt på flammene og bruker klærne sine til å kvele ilden tror jeg ikke dette har noe særlig for seg, gitt.

[oddeh]

Brother Ursus skrev (11 minutter siden):

Russerne er mindre belånte enn de fleste andre, men en drøy tredel av russerne (så vidt jeg husker) har tross alt lån, og har på mindre enn tre år gått fra å betale 6,25% rente til over 18% - nesten kredittkortrenter. Antall lån som godkjennes faller også voldsomt. Samtidig faller priser på bolig, mens prisen på bla. bil stiger (vil dermed tro at også bruktbil stiger), så noen vil nok kunne likvidere, men langtifra alle. Hadde jeg vært russer hadde jeg gjort det for lengst, rett etter at krigen brøt ut.

De fleste på landsbygda har trolig lite lån ja, men forhåpentligvis begynner de å kjenne på det i storbyene. De har jo stort sett vært skånet for "verneplikt" og dermed ikke merket så mye til krigen hittil.

[Brother Ursus]

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/netherlands-orders-51-mobile-drone-detection-radars-for-ukraine/

Netherlands Orders 51 Mobile Drone-Detection Radars for Ukraine

"The contract was signed today at Robin Radar Systems in The Hague."

"The radars ordered are capable of detecting small drones and distinguishing them, for example, from birds, and doing so even at high speeds.

What’s unique about radars is that they do their job when deployed on mobile platforms. Because the detection system is mobile, it is harder for an adversary to find the radar and therefore harder to destroy."

[Brother Ursus]

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1826208201102036998?s=19

For the first time, Ukraine discloses real missile interception rates, moving beyond 'all intercepted' claims—average success stands at 43% Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, reported that from February 24, 2022, Russian missiles and drones struck 11,879 targets in Ukraine 1/

Civilian targets made up 53% of successful Russian strikes, hitting 6,203 targets, while military targets numbered 5,676 2/

Missiles and Drones: Total Missiles Launched: 9,590 Total Drones Launched: 13,997 Missiles Intercepted: 2,429 (25%) Drones Intercepted: 5,972 (43%) 3/

Cruise Missiles (Kalibr, Kh-555/101, R-500, Iskander): Interception Rate: 67% These cruise missiles are more effectively intercepted, with a significant proportion launched at strategic targets 4/

Guided Missiles (Kh-59, Kh-35, Kh-31): Interception Rate: 22% Lower interception rate due to these missiles being launched at frontline or border targets with less layered air defense 5/

Drones (Shahed-136, Lancet): Launched: 13,315 Intercepted: 8,836 (63%) These drones were heavily targeted by air defense, resulting in a moderate interception success rate. 6/

Ballistic Missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U, KN-23): Launched: 1,388 Interception Rate: 4.5% Extremely low interception rate, making these missiles a significant threat, particularly to civilian infrastructure 7/

Anti-Aircraft Missiles Modified to Hit Ground (S-300, S-400): Launched: 3,008 Interception Rate: 0.63% These missiles targeted 4,293 objects, primarily civilian (3,196) but also military (1,097) 8/

Kh-22 and Kh-32 Missiles: Launched: 362 Intercepted: 2 (0.55%) These missiles, launched from Tu-22M3 bombers, require modern interception systems due to their speed and trajectory 9/

"Onyx" Missile: Launched: 211 Intercepted: 12 (5.7%) High-speed missile with a low interception rate, posing a significant risk to both civilian and military targets 10/

Hypersonic Weapons (Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal"): Launched: 111 Intercepted: 28 (25%) These hypersonic missiles mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, with a notable portion being intercepted 11/

"Zircon" Missile: Launched: 6 Intercepted: 2 Struck civilian targets four times, demonstrating the challenges of intercepting truly hypersonic weapons 12X

 

Strengt tatt er vel dette alt som har landet, og de aller færreste vil vel derfor ha vært forsøkt avskåret med antiluftskyts, langt mindre antiluftskyts av "riktig type". Jeg tror Ukraina nå gir ut disse tallene for å vise at de faktisk trenger ekstremt mye mer antiluftskyts.

Å invandere Kursk dytter også flyforsvarssonen til Sumy og andre byer mye lengre bakover. Invanderes f.eks Belgorod eller Bryansk kan det samme tildels oppnås for Kharkiv eller Kyiv.

Endret 22. august av Brother Ursus

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3897186-ukrainian-forces-hit-s300-air-defense-system-in-rostov-region.html

Ukrainian forces hit S-300 air defense system in Rostov region

"Units of the Ukrainian Navy, in cooperation with other elements of the Defense Forces, struck a position of the S-300 air defense system near Novoshakhtinsk. According to the results of objective control, explosions were observed at designated aiming points. The accuracy of the strike is being investigated," the post said.

 

Involvering av marinen er antagelig noe av grunnlaget for spekulasjon om at det kan ha vært benyttet en ukrainsk egenutviklet Neptun-rakett med lang rekkevidde.

[bojangles]

Quote

Ukraina bekrefter ukrainsk droneangrep mot russisk militæranlegg

 

Ukrainske sikkerhetsmyndigheter bekrefter at Kyiv gjennomførte et droneangrep mot det russiske militærflyanlegget Marinovka i den russiske regionen Volgograd. De skal ha truffet et lagerområde med drivstoff og glidebomber. Anlegget ble satt i brann. Det melder Reuters.

 

[bojangles]

Quote

Russland bygger tilfluktsrom i betong i Kursk

 

Rundt 60 busstasjoner i byen Kursk skal utstyres med bomberom, ifølge fungerende guvernør Alexei Smirnov.

I tillegg skal to andre byer i Kursk fylke, Zheleznogorsk and Kurtsjatov, få bomberom. Kurtsjatov er hjem til atomkraftverket i Kursk, som Russland anklager Ukraina for å planlegge å angripe.

Den ukrainske offensiven startet 6. august, da ukrainske styrker tok seg over den russiske grensen. Siden da har flere hundrevis blitt evakuert.

Dette er den største invasjonen av Russland siden andre verdenskrig. Ukrainas president Volodymyr Zelenskyj har sagt at målet er å danne en buffersone og å tære på Russlands krigsmaskineri.

(NTB)

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

[50z]

Interessant intervju med med Sir Ben Wallace (Forsvarsminister i UK fra juli 2019 til august 2023)

Ukraine should be given the tools to ‘finish the job’ | Sir Ben Wallace