Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Brother Ursus]

At motoffensiven ikke kan kjøre rett til Moskva slik Prigozhin gjorde er åpenbart, men å kalle den mislykket eller dømt til å mislykkes er å underslå hvilken enorm suksess den allerede har vært.

Den har sugd all lufta ut av rommet, endret narrativet, ydmyket Putin og det russiske forsvaret, skapt kaos i rekkene deres både politisk og militært, og flyttet krigen inn på russisk territorium, som er en bragd få har klart siden Hitler, Napoleon og Karl den Tolvte (uten videre sammenligning da dette i tillegg er en forsvarskrig).

Det er heller ikke riktig at dette ikke har tatt ressurser vekk fra østfronten.

Russlands største forsvarsverk er dets geografi. Men det er på ingen måte umulig å overkomme, da nesten hele Russland bor innen rekkevidde av Moskva. Ting tar tid. Spørsmålet er om ukrainerne har såpass mye tid. I øyeblikket virker det som om de er tilfreds med å bygge en buffersone.

Det stemmer at russerne fremdeles avanserer på deler av østfronten. Sakte. Veldig sakte. Og de tar noen relativt ubetydelige utbombede og tomme tettsteder og åpne åkre. Det er nesten ingenting av strategisk betydning.

Dette er ikke Ukrainas krig å vinne. Det er Russlands krig å tape. Jeg ser for meg at ukrainerne vil sette andre tropper i forsvar i buffersonen og flytte elitestyrkene sine til en ny front eller stikke dypere inn i Russland om situasjonen tillater det. Når logistikk og forsvarsverk er oppe og går.

 

Endret 13. august av Brother Ursus

[Brother Ursus]

24 minutes ago, bojangles said:

Hva skjer???

Er det polsk øvelse eller er det et faktisk angrep på kaliningrad???
Det må være øvelse vel?

 

 

Ser ut til å ha vært en øvelse med flyvåpen.

Da jeg var på grensen til Kaliningrad for nøyaktig en uke siden var det ingenting som tydet på styrkeoppbygging. Soldater og grensevakter roterte og dro som vanlig hjem på permisjon, og forsvarsverk var under reisning.

 

Endret 13. august av Brother Ursus

[Penny]

Øvelse ja, simulerte angrep som snur i god avstand fra grensen. Russerne liker å gjøre det samme mot Vardø, de er så grenseløst krenket av at GLOBUS II står der.

[Brother Ursus]

https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/en/the-national-resistance-center-receives-technical-documentation-on-russian-air-defense-systems/

The National Resistance Center receives technical documentation on Russian air defense systems

The Center of National Resistance publishes technical documentation of the Russian air defense systems “Pantsir-S” and “TOR-M1.”.

In connection with the successful withdrawal of the air defense of Crimea, the Kremlin is chaotically transferring reinforcements from different regions of Russia. However, not all Air Force personnel are willing to become targets.

Therefore, those who are not indifferent handed over technical documentation for the Pantsir-S and TOR-M1 air defense systems to the National Defense Center.

We urge journalists to help disseminate the documentation, as the relevant information is distributed to drone manufacturers to effectively set up a system to bypass Russian air defense.

Anyone can stop the policy of the Russian invaders and their collaborators by publicizing their crimes and demanding their international prosecution. You can also participate in rallies in support of Ukraine or donate to the Ukrainian Armed Force.

Endret 13. august av Brother Ursus

[Brother Ursus]

 

"The capture of Sudzha may not seem grand on a map but the capture of the railway station may allow Ukrainian Intelligence direct access into Russian Railway Computer Systems, Schedules, Train Consists, and internal Russian Railway Communications from Dispatch to Defect Detectors. Sudzha station besides being part of the Lgov-Belgorod Line that I've highlighted previously is part of the Moscow Railway division, which must be causing panic in Russian High Command knowing that the enemy has real time capability to view your logistical movements."

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/kursk-ukraine-russia-kyiv-zelensky-win-b2594019.html

Putin’s greatest fear is coming true – and he’s panicking

Throughout its war with Russia, Ukraine has shown a remarkable capacity to take its much bigger invader by surprise. Since its repulse of Russia’s onslaught in February 2022, the Ukrainians have scored morale-boosting hits on their enemy.

Last week’s sudden incursion into Russian territory is, however, much more dramatic than previous Ukrainian coups. It came as Western military commentators seemed to agree that Vladimir Putin was winning a brutal war of attrition against his smaller neighbour, maybe forcing Ukraine to accept his demands in the coming months. So, the West was as surprised as the Kremlin by recent events.

In an address on Sunday, the Russian leader accused Ukraine of breaking “all permissible boundaries” after they grabbed up to 95 square miles of land and forced thousands of civilians to evacuate in the process. This morning, black smoke has been seen billowing from the Russia-occupied nuclear power plant Zaporizhzhia – both Russia and Ukraine accuse one another of causing the fire.

There are some fears that a humiliated Putin will launch extensive revenge attacks against Ukraine, after he vowed to “take tough measures in response” to Kyiv’s nearly week-long cross-border assault.

Sceptics of the strategic wisdom of Kyiv’s dramatic advance tend to see it less as a game-changer than as a battlefield blip – like Hitler’s Battle of the Bulge, which knocked the Allies sideways for 10 days over Christmas 1944 but actually drained away what was left of his army’s reserves.

Yet by grabbing a swathe of territory in western Russia itself, Kyiv has dealt a harsh blow to Putin’s propaganda image inside Russia – and its portrait of the progress of the war inside Ukraine.

An advance of six miles in a week might not sound like a blitzkrieg but the Russians would be very happy to achieve that pace further south, where they have pushed forward in recent months at a snail’s pace and at a huge price – more like the Somme in 1916.

A war of attrition favours the Kremlin because it has more cannon fodder to throw into the Ukrainian cauldron than Kyiv has.

The casualties suffered by both sides are horrific, by the standards of even Putin’s brutal Chechen war after 1999. Despite the human cost, neither Ukraine nor Russia has been fully mobilised for war as during the Second World War.

Nato advisers deplore the lack of mass mobilisation of student-age young men in Ukraine, while their fathers die at the front. However, Putin, too, has preferred drafting young men from regions well away from sensitive cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Rather than a fight to the finish, like the Second World War, Ukraine and Russia may be manoeuvring for a compromise of peace out of this mayhem – which would save the face of both Putin and Zelensky.

This week’s battlefield success could give President Zelensky an excuse for peace talks from a sudden position of strength. In recent weeks, his government has been quietly sounding out Russia’s friends like China and Turkey about a possible ceasefire, even peace terms.

Zelensky will remember how he faced a virtual mutiny before this current war when he suggested talks with Putin five years ago. Many of his troops and the widows and orphans of the war dead since 2022 would be outraged by a “sell-out” but maybe they could accept an “honourable” halt to the war on the back of Ukrainian battlefield success.

There are many other talks to be had – not least gas pipeline vulnerability, the economic impact of the continuing conflict and whether territorial swaps are on the agenda.

Putin’s control of Russia’s media means that he could declare victory and stop the war.

A narrow window of opportunity to stop the slaughter in Ukraine could be opening if both the Kremlin and Kyiv see benefits for them in an unsatisfactory peace. It might well only be a truce but for many ordinary soldiers on both sides, it will be a life-saver.

Is peace in sight? Sadly, not immediately. But this week’s shock might give Putin pause for thought. His forces are not rolling forward fast enough while Western support for Ukraine has revived in recent months.

It might stall again if Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections. However, if Trump loses, Putin faces four more years of US-led “proxy” war against Russia.

 

Vi var mange som ble lange i trynet da Zelensky plutselig for en måneds tid siden begynte å snakke om fredsavtaler. Man kunne ane at noe hadde endret seg eller var i ferd med å gjøre det. Noen påstå det hadde å gjøre med F-16. I realiteten kan dette altså ha telegrafert den kommende motoffensiven.

[Brother Ursus]

• Rundt 2000 russiske soldater skal nå ha overgitt seg i Kursk-området.
• En russisk militærkolonne har dundret inn i en haug med syklister nær Donetsk by. Minst én skal være død, og flere kritisk skadede. I går kjørte en militærkolonne inn i en far og barnet hans i Sankt Petersburg-området. Begge er antagelig døde.

[Brother Ursus]

 

Putin har sansyneligvis ikke noe valg. Dette kommer til å være dypt upopulært, men jeg holder ikke ut noe særlig håp om at russerne vil ta til betydelig motmæle. De er et brukket og ødelagt folk.

[Kjell Iver]

En vits tåler vi vel - putins frykt var nevnt over her - syntes denne var litt morsom 

 

 

[Brother Ursus]

 

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

[Brother Ursus]

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

 

[bojangles]

 

☹️

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

[Dragavon]

Sitat

 

Kilder tett på Ukrainas generalstab skal erkjenne overfor det anerkjente nyhetsmagasinet The Economist at den ukrainske offensiven på russisk jord foreløpig ikke har hatt ønsket effekt.

- Kommandørene deres er ikke idiotier. De omdirigerer styrker, men ikke så raskt som vi skulle ønske. De vet at vi ikke strekker forsyningslinjene våre forbi 80 eller 100 kilometer, sier den ikke-navngitte kilden til magasinet.

 

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/skuffet-ingen-panikk/81790303