Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/02/gazprom-first-annual-loss-in-20-years-trade-europe-gas-sales-russia-ukraine

Gazprom slumps to first annual loss in 22 years as trade with Europe hit

£5.5bn loss in 2023 comes after gas sales more than halved following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

[Gjest MKII]

7 minutes ago, Brother Ursus said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68937160

Marjorie Taylor Greene pushes to remove House speaker

 

Mon tro om demokratene redder Johnson, eller kaster ham for å få en demokratisk speaker.

Hva er sansynligheten for å få en demokratisk speaker i Huset hvor det vel er republikanskt flertall...?

[Brother Ursus]

6 minutes ago, Gjest MKII said:

Hva er sansynligheten for å få en demokratisk speaker i Huset hvor det vel er republikanskt flertall...?

Det er 217 republikanere, 212 demokrater og 6 uavhengige.

Med tanke på det shitshowet vi nettopp så med Johnson og Ukraina og hvor mange republikanere som krysset midtdeleren, så håper jeg sjansene er gode.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/i/MngXaB/russisk-taktikk-paa-slagmarken-kjennes-som-lungene-eksploderer

Ny Russisk taktikk: –⁠ Kjennes som lungene eksploderer

Først kommer gassen og tvinger dem ut. Så kommer bombene, forteller soldatene. Ukrainske leger mener Russland bruker en gass som ble brukt i første verdenskrig.

 

 

Dette har altså pågått i et drøyt år allerede. De første rapportene ble omtalt i denne tråden allerede sommeren 2023 om jeg ikke tar feil (eller enda tidligere?). Da slapp russerne bokser med klorpikrin og CS fra droner, og skjøt dem med artilleri eller granatkastere.

Men for all del positivt at media nå kommer etter...

[torbjornen]

Sitat

2. mai 2024 kl. 18:35 

Nato: Djupt uroa for auka russisk aktivitet i Nato-land

 

Nato-medlemmar er djupt uroa over nyleg aktivitetar i Nato-land, skriv generalsekretær Jens Stoltenberg i ei pressemelding.

Han viser til hendingar i Tsjekkia, Estland, Tyskland, Latvia, Litauen, Polen og Storbritannia.

– Dette er hendingar som er ein del av ein del av stadig fleire aktivitetar Russland utfører over heile det euroatlantiske område, inkludert alliansens territorium og gjennom fullmakter, skriv han.

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-hard-landing-recession-ukraine-war-military-spending-putin-2024-5

Russia's economic survival hinges on prolonging the Ukraine war, think tank expert says

• Russia needs to keep its war with Ukraine going or risk an economic hard landing, Elina Ribakova wrote for the Financial Times.
• The country's military industry has been a major driver of structural economic strength during the war.
• If the conflict ends, a recession could unfold, adding pressure on the Kremlin, Ribakova said.

Russia has seen strong growth lately, but the fate of the nation's economy hangs on whether it can keep militarizing — something only accomplished by keeping the Ukraine war going, a think-tank analyst wrote in the Financial Times.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Russia's GDP is set to considerably outpace other Western economies this year, forecasted to grow 3.2%. But while this may look good on paper, the country is actually at risk of a hard landing if war efforts cease, Elina Ribakova said.

"Contrary to the expectations that economic constraints would hinder Russia's capacity to sustain fighting, the specter of economic collapse might push Vladimir Putin and his officials to double down on militarization and seek further confrontation, even if aggression against Ukraine hits a standstill," the Peterson Institute for International Economics analyst said. 

Since Moscow's Ukraine invasion in 2022, its economic success is chiefly thanks to military-industrial expansions, heavily bolstered by fiscal support from the Kremlin.

According to the senior fellow, direct military spending has more tripled since the war's start, now accounting for 6% of GDP. That number is likely to be much higher, she said, as a large portion of government expenditures are not publicly known.

That's brought profit to regions that have struggled for years, and are now seeing huge upside from the production shift. Local governments are reporting a surge in jobs, production facilities, and enterprises, Ribakova cited.

In total, military-industrial establishments have exploded across the country, rising from 2,000 to 6,000 in the war's timeframe. These employ more than 3.5 million workers.

At this point, the pivot towards war-based growth is structural, and aggression needs to keep up to preserve the economy, she said.

"Reversing the structural investments made in the war will present a monumental challenge. For decades," Ribakova wrote. "Russia has struggled with under-investment and regional inequality, with only a handful of primarily commodity-producing regions being the net contributors to the budget transfer system."

If hostilities were to end, a Russian recession isn't unlikely. To avoid such a conflict at home, this only incentivizes Moscow to keep its fight going:

"Should the authorities attempt to halt militarisation, a hard landing could add pressure to the government, which already resorts to oppression to maintain power," she wrote. "Internal conflicts over limited resources may also intensify."

 

Det bør også nevnes en massiv caveat, her. Denne militæriseringen er per i dag også avhengig av russiske olje og gass- penger. Det er derfor Ukraina forsøker å knekke Russlands eksportnæringer. Og det ser ut til at de lykkes med det. Da må Kreml i økende grad skattelegge egne innbyggere og fjerne sosiale goder, helsetjenester, utdanning osv.

Selv om krigen endte i morgen vil Russlands eksportnæringer slite i tiår fremover. Ikke bare med å bygge seg opp igjen, men med å finne kunder. Det eneste landet i Europa som i dag er avhengig av russisk olje og gass er Ungarn.

I min oppfatning bør Ukraina, Romania og Slovakia gå sammen om å kvele de russiske leveransene til Ungarn.

[Brother Ursus]

Den amerikanske hærens 155mm ammunisjonsfabrikken i Scranton i Pennsylvania, produserte i april måned 36.000 artillerigranater. Opp ifra 25.000 i oktober. Fabrikken er en av hovedvinnerne i USAs støttepakke som nylig ble vedtatt til Ukraina, hvor ca. 90% av pengene i realiteten brukes innenlands.

[bojangles]

Minus 1270 russiske frontkjempere, minus 2 luftvern, 58 artilleri, 33 pansrede personell kjøretøy, og 22 tanks. 

russerne forsøker dra på, men nå virker det som Ukraina endelig blir utrustet på et vis som faktisk gjør dem istand til å forsvare seg skikkelig. Logistikken tar tid, så her må Ukrainas støttespillere virkelig legge seg i selen for å sikre raskest mulig levering av hjelpepakker, donasjoner og våpen slik at ikke Ukraina taper mer land fordi de er våpen/ammo tomme på fronten. 

Endret 3. mai av bojangles

[bojangles]

 

Spoiler

 

 

Endret 3. mai av bojangles

[oddeh]

[Brother Ursus]

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-has-two-months-to-make-most-out-of-atacms-missiles-report-50415227.html

Ukraine has two months to make most out of ATACMS missiles

Ivan Stupak, a former officer of Ukraine’s SBU security service who currently serves as an advisor to the parliamentary Defense Committee, believes the Ukrainian military has roughly two months to eliminate as many Russian military assets as possible before the enemy adapts.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-global-gdp-share-may-hit-historic-low-imf-1896601

Russia's Economy on Course to Hit Historic Low

The Russian economy's share of global gross domestic product is expected to decline over President Vladimir Putin's fifth presidential term to reach its lowest level since the end of the Soviet Union, the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund show.

Russia's economy has shown resilience in the face of Western-led sanctions imposed after Putin began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which sought to isolate Moscow from the global financial system and cut its funding for the war.

In April, the IMF upgraded its forecast for Russia's economic growth to 3.2 percent in 2024—almost triple the 1.1 percent growth it had predicted in October 2023. The updated figure, which is higher than the GDP growth forecast for the U.S. and many other Western countries, raised questions about the effectiveness of sanctions.

However, other IMF data shows that while Russia's economy is expected to grow, it may not increase as much as other countries'.

New IMF figures predict Russia's share of global GDP will shrink between now and 2029. The country's GDP share is expected to increase slightly in 2024 to 2.948 percent, up from 2.947 percent in 2023. But from then until the end of the decade, Russia's share of the global economy is set to gradually decrease.

In 2025, according to the IMF data, Russia's share of global GDP will begin to shrink, falling to 2.908 percent. In 2026, its GDP share is expected to be 2.855 percent, and then 2.803 and 2.754 percent in the following two years. In 2029, the year before Putin's presidential term expires, Russia's share of global GDP is expected to drop to 2.706 percent.

The forecast figure is less than the previous low of 2.83 percent, recorded in 1998—the year Russia, under President Boris Yeltsin, defaulted on its debt and sparked a financial crisis. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Financial Ministry for comment via email.

According to Rosstat, a Russian government statistics agency, the country's economy has faced turbulence but rebounded more strongly than expected in 2023, with a GDP growth of 3.6 percent.

While robust growth is predicted for this year, helped by the Kremlin earmarking 10.8 trillion rubles ($115 billion) for defense spending, Russia's GDP growth is expected to dip sharply from 3.2 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent in 2025, according to the IMF.

Russia also faces a significant labor shortage in parts of its economy, exacerbated by the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers and the exodus of men of fighting age seeking to avoid the draft.

In 2023, Russia's Central Bank hiked interest rates to 16 percent to curb inflation—which, at 7.8 percent, remains stubbornly high.

[Snikpellik]

Frankrike anslår at 150.000 russiske soldater er drept i krigen mot Ukraina, sier utenriksminister Stéphane Séjourné.

Totalt anslår Frankrike at de russiske tapstallene, inkludert sårede, til sammen er på 500.000.

Dette resonnerer med Storbritannias tall på 450.000 fra tidligere i år.

https://www.tv2.no/direkte/jpybz/siste-nytt/6634bc17d8c0efe664cd696b/fransk-estimat-russland-har-mistet-150000-soldater-i-ukrainakrigen

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

Gerasimov er altså antagelig i live, men han oppfører seg rart og ser stusselig ut. Det er nærliggende å tro at han kan ha hatt hjerneslag, blitt skadet, eller hatt en annen akutt traumatisk sykdom som har påvirket hjernen eller hele kroppen.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-cameron-kyiv-promises-ukraine-aid-as-long-it-takes-2024-05-02/

Britain's Cameron, in Kyiv, promises Ukraine aid for 'as long as it takes'

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron promised three billion pounds ($3.74 billion) of annual military aid for Ukraine for "as long as it takes"

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-5/

Military Intelligence: Nepalese mercenaries desert Russian army in droves

Moscow use them as "cannon fodder" on the front without preparing mercenaries for combat activities, said Petro Yatsenko, a spokesperson of Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

The Nepalese soldiers, assigned to military unit number 29328 of Russia's Armed Forces, are deserting due to heavy losses, non-payment of salaries, and commanders' abuse, "including executions for refusing to follow orders," according to HUR.

[Brother Ursus]

 

Da ser det ut til at idiotene virkelig har tenkt å prøve seg på Kharkiv og Sumy igjen, de to ukrainske fylkene sør for Belgorod og Kursk.

Det er i praksis null sjans for at Kharkiv vil falle, slik at det er vanskelig å tyde denne nye offensiven som noe annet enn desperasjon fra russernes side.

Jeg har vanskelig for å tro at dette er noe mer enn et forsøk på distrahering, for å fikse ukrainske styrker i nord og få dem vekk fra østfronten.

"Alt" ukrainerne trenger å gjøre er å forsvare i dybde. Det skal være forberedte forsvarslinjer, minefelt og andre ting der. Spørsmålet er hvilke enheter som skal besette stillingene. Det kan ikke kun være reservister.

[Dragavon]

Brother Ursus skrev (6 minutter siden):

Military Intelligence: Nepalese mercenaries desert Russian army in droves

russere behandler ikkje-russere som dritt.

Ingenting nytt der vel?

[Brother Ursus]

Just now, Dragavon said:

russere behandler ikkje-russere som dritt.

Ingenting nytt der vel?

Nope. Det jeg synes er rart er at disse landene ikke protesterer hardere mot behandlingen av deres borgere.

Særlig India er ekstremt nasjonalistisk og sjåvinistisk slik sett. De klikket jo i vinkel over de falske anklagene fra Chatterjee etter filmen Mrs. Chatterjee vs Norway.

Men å behandle mannfolkene deres på denne måten er visst ok, fordi Russland??