Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Dragavon]

 

[torbjornen]

M98kF1 skrev (7 timer siden):

Tror ikke det er så farlig hvor raskt de kommer, så lenge det er helt sikkert at de faktisk kommer så slipper Ukraina å spare på granatene de allerede har. 

... om dei i det heile har nokon att.

[torbjornen]

[torbjornen]

Sitat

Noreg positive til Nato-fond til Ukraina

PUBLISERT KLOKKEN14:15 IKRIGEN I UKRAINA

Noreg støttar forslaget frå Nato-sjef Jens Stoltenberg om å opprette eit langsiktig Ukraina-fond som Nato sjølv skal koordinere.

– Det er kloke og gode forslag for å gjere støtta til Ukraina meir berekraftig og effektivt, seier statssekretær Eivind Vad Petersson (Ap) i UD til NTB.

Han representerer Noreg på utanriksministermøtet til Nato i Brussel onsdag.

 

[1Dr.E]

Blir Russland økonomisk stilt til ansvar for gjenoppbygging hvis de trekker seg ut (gir opp)?

[Brother Ursus]

Norge burde absolutt være en hovedbidragsyter. Vi har oljepenger i store mengder. Oljepenger vi ikke kan bruke innenlands uten å skape inflasjon. Det har dermed aldri vært mer fornuftig å bruke dem enn nå. Vi kjøper oss godvilje, vi kjøper oss forsvar uten å ofre egne liv og vi kjøper en stor dose moralsk rettferdighet. Vinn-vinn. Norge tjente mange hundre milliarder ekstra på krigen i form av både aksjer og særlig olje og gass- prisen.

Endret 3. april av Brother Ursus

[VifteKopp]

1Dr.E skrev (1 minutt siden):

Blir Russland økonomisk stilt til ansvar for gjenoppbygging hvis de trekker seg ut (gir opp)?

Tviler på at Russland bryr seg så mye om hva de blir stilt til ansvar for eller ikke. 

[Thor.]

1 minute ago, 1Dr.E said:

Blir Russland økonomisk stilt til ansvar for gjenoppbygging hvis de trekker seg ut (gir opp)?

Ja, men ikke forvent at de betaler frivillig.

[1Dr.E]

https://theconversation.com/russias-economy-is-now-completely-driven-by-the-war-in-ukraine-it-cannot-afford-to-lose-but-nor-can-it-afford-to-win-221333

For a long time, the economy of Russia has not been diverse, relying heavily on the export of natural resources such as oil and gas. And a major reason for the relatively high revenue of the Russian government today is precisely that the war has led to high energy prices.

Russia’s public spending is at unprecedented levels, and around 40% of the government budget is spent on the war. Total military spending is expected to reach more than 10% of GDP for the year 2023 (the UK figure is 2.3%).

Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia’s economic growth.

And it is a war that Russia cannot afford to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.

In a context of collapsing infrastructure and growing social unrest inside Russia, the projected cost of rebuilding the occupied area is already massive.

A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse. Having transformed the little industry it had to focus on the war effort, and with a labour shortage problem worsened by hundreds of thousands of war casualties and a massive brain drain, the country would struggle to find a new direction.

Thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin wall, it has become clear that resource-rich Russia has become much poorer than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.

The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war and deal with that kind of economic reality. So it cannot afford to win the war, nor can it afford to lose it. Its economy is now entirely geared towards continuing a long and ever deadlier conflict.

[Brother Ursus]

 

Macron har endelig fortstått at dialog med Putin ikke nytter, at avtaler med Russland ikke er verdt papiret det er skrevet på, og at man er nødt til å slutte å mate Putins forhåpninger, eller sette seg selv i kinkige situasjoner, ved hele tiden å si at man ikke vil gjøre ditt og datt. Sansyneligvis er dette "opplyst selvinteresse" for Frankrikes del mtp. Russlands økende innflytelse over franske kvasi-kolonier i Sentral-Afrika), men så lenge det går i riktig retning ønsker jeg dem velkommen blant haukene.

[Brother Ursus]

3 minutes ago, 1Dr.E said:

In a context of collapsing infrastructure and growing social unrest inside Russia, the projected cost of rebuilding the occupied area is already massive.

Og da snakker vi altså om drøyt 18% av Ukrainas territorie, nesten uten befolkning. Hadde russerne rent teoretisk "vunnet" krigen med hele Ukraina og 20-30 millioner mennesker (mange fler ville nok flyktet enn dagens 11 av 42 millioner), så hadde det også slått Russland konkurs. De har rett og slett ødelagt seg selv på dette idiotiske selvmordsoppdraget. Putin kan umulig være helt i vater om han trodde han skulle skape et tredje stort russisk rike. Men så er det også slik Russland konsekvent har vokst i tidligere tider. Forskjellen nå og da er at de hadde dyktige militærfaglige folk, mange av dem fra nettopp Ukraina, Baltikum med fler, og at landet fremdeles var i vekst, både økonomisk og ikke minst befolkningsmessig.

[bojangles]

@Brother Ursus kjekt å se du er tilbake. Du bidrar veldig positivt til denne tråden. 

[Brother Ursus]

1 hour ago, bojangles said:

@Brother Ursus kjekt å se du er tilbake. Du bidrar veldig positivt til denne tråden. 

4 hours ago, Nopros said:

Godt å ha deg tilbake, Ursus.

Tusen takk, begge to. Savnet har vært gjensidig. Jeg merker at det er utrolig godt, og mentalt sunt, å ha et sted å dele nyheter og tanker om det utenkelige. Det er vanskelig å stå på sidelinjen og føle at man ikke gjør nok. Samtidig er jeg stygt redd for at dersom ikke dette stanser snart, så vil mange av oss, kanskje alderen til tross (jeg er 43), snart måtte delta mer direkte.

EDIT: Apropos er det en ganske bra svensk film fra 2018, som heter The Unthinkable, eller Det Utenkelige, som ble fordømt og latterliggjort for krigshissing, for sin ganske så realistiske beskrivelse av en russisk hybridkrig og etter hvert reell krig, mot Sverige. I retrospekt er det mange som skylder skribentene og filmskaperne en unskyldning. Meget serverdig i min oppfatning. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5227746/

Endret 3. april av Brother Ursus

[Pop]

16 minutes ago, Brother Ursus said:

EDIT: Apropos er det en ganske bra svensk film fra 2018, som heter The Unthinkable, eller Det Utenkelige, som ble fordømt og latterliggjort for krigshissing, for sin ganske så realistiske beskrivelse av en russisk hybridkrig og etter hvert reell krig, mot Sverige. I retrospekt er det mange som skylder skribentene og filmskaperne en unskyldning. Meget serverdig i min oppfatning. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5227746/

Vi har vel et norsk eksempel også i den gaten. En norsk serie som gikk på tv for en 4-5 år siden kanskje, som omhandlet et eller annet russisk angrep på Norge (jeg så den aldri selv). "Okkupert" het den kanskje?

Russerne var blodig fornærmet.

[Entern]

Veldig godt å se deg igjen @Brother Ursus 😀 du har vært savnet 😊

[Gibblay]

3 minutes ago, Pop said:

Vi har vel et norsk eksempel også i den gaten. En norsk serie som gikk på tv for en 4-5 år siden kanskje, som omhandlet et eller annet russisk angrep på Norge (jeg så den aldri selv). "Okkupert" het den kanskje?

Russerne var blodig fornærmet.

Stemmer det. Et av hovedelementene der var jo det totalt virkelighetsfjerne at USA trakk seg ut fra Europa, og overlot til russerne å utøve press for å få viljen sin i Norge. Ironisk så det er sagt, for det ligner skremmende på et scenario som kan skje med en viss Trump i stolen der nå. Har faktisk tenkt på den serien i det siste, for den ble jo til dels slaktet for lite troverdig plot. Nå er den mer aktuell enn noen gang. 

[oddeh]

Brother Ursus skrev (2 timer siden):

Norge burde absolutt være en hovedbidragsyter. Vi har oljepenger i store mengder. Oljepenger vi ikke kan bruke innenlands uten å skape inflasjon. Det har dermed aldri vært mer fornuftig å bruke dem enn nå. Vi kjøper oss godvilje, vi kjøper oss forsvar uten å ofre egne liv og vi kjøper en stor dose moralsk rettferdighet. Vinn-vinn. Norge tjente mange hundre milliarder ekstra på krigen i form av både aksjer og særlig olje og gass- prisen.

Enig. Vi kunne fint gitt de en billion eller to uten å merke noe, men fått MYE igjen.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack

‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack

Third attack on Kerch bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea ‘inevitable’, say Ukraine’s military intelligence

They have become a familiar sight in the skies above parts of Russia: long-range enemy drones, buzzing their way to another target. In the biggest Ukrainian onslaught inside Russian territory since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion two years ago, Ukraine has in recent weeks carried out a series of attacks on Russian oil refineries and ports. On Tuesday, it hit a refinery and drone factory in the industrial region of Tatarstan - more than 800 miles from the border.

The Ukrainian spy agency behind these drone strikes has its eyes on another target: the 12-mile long Kerch bridge connecting occupied Crimea with Russia. Senior officials from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service indicate it is plotting a third attempt on the bridge, after two previous attempts to blow it up, claiming its destruction is “inevitable”.

For Putin, the bridge is a tangible reminder of what he sees as one of his greatest political achievements: the peninsula’s 2014 “return” to Russia using undercover Russian troops and a sham referendum.

For Kyiv, the bridge is equally a hated symbol of the Kremlin’s illegal annexation. Its destruction would strengthen Ukraine’s campaign to liberate Crimea and raise morale on and off the battlefield, where Kyiv’s forces are gradually being pushed back.

How any Ukrainian attack would unfold is unclear and there are serious doubts about whether the HUR is capable of pulling off a special operation against such a well-defended and obvious target. Russia has taken extensive measures to protect the bridge, strengthening anti-aircraft defences and deploying a “target barge” as a decoy for incoming guided missiles.

The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.

Over the past five months Ukraine has sunk seven landing boats and large ships belonging to Moscow’s Black Sea fleet. The latest, the Sergei Kotov, capsized in March after a night-time raid involving 10 Ukrainian Magura V5 amphibious drones packed with explosives as it was on patrol south of the Kerch bridge. HUR officials indicated this was a “shaping operation” prior to another attack on the crossing.

The bridge has been hit and repaired twice before. A 3am raid by Ukrainian sea drones last July caused extensive damage to the road section, which runs parallel to a separate railway section used by Russia’s military to move tanks and supplies. In October 2022 an explosion, Russia said from a bomb smuggled on to a truck, caused several spans of roadway to fall into the water.

If the bridge were permanently compromised, Moscow would be forced to transport military supplies by road through occupied southern Ukraine. The route would go via Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces, which Russia partly captured in spring 2022. Ukrainian officials believe this would significantly impair the Kremlin’s ability to carry out offensives at a time when its ground forces are advancing.

The officials indicated that western weapons would allow Ukraine to destroy the bridge more speedily and Zelenskiy has repeatedly asked Berlin for its long-range Taurus missile system. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has so far refused, arguing that this would be tantamount to his country taking a direct role in the war with Russia, and a dangerous escalation.

Pro-Kremlin Russian channels last month released an intercepted phone call in which high-ranking German military officials discussed the capabilities of Taurus. The experts estimated that 10 to 20 missiles would probably be enough to destroy the bridge.

Budanov’s deputy, Maj Gen Vadym Skybytskyi, said he believed European politicians were wrong to fear escalation. “What does escalation mean for us? We have had two years of war. It’s an everyday procedure,” he said. “Russia bombs our territory. It hits power stations and civilian infrastructure.”

He said victory was currently impossible on the battlefield, given Russia’s military superiority and a shortage on the Ukrainian side of artillery shells and fighter jets, and suggested Kyiv had “no choice” but to take the fight to targets deep behind enemy lines, including military infrastructure, command and control centres and industrial production sites that made “weapons and munitions”. Kyiv used a Nato-standard procedure known as centre of gravity or Cog, he added – a model where outsized results can be achieved by selecting and then eliminating a few carefully picked high-value targets.

In recent months the HUR has sought to wipe out Russia’s refining capacity. Its long-range drones have hit Russian oil terminals in Putin’s home city of St Petersburg, more than 1,000km (621 miles) from Ukraine’s border. There have been attacks in the Oryol region, a blast on a train in the Urals city of Nizhny Tagil, and a strike in the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. The Tuapse oil refinery on the Black Sea also caught fire. The Financial Times reported that Washington had urged Kyiv to halt drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for fear of driving up global oil prices.

During Russia’s elections last month there were explosions at fuel facilities in the Oryol and Nizhny Novgorod regions, and in the border region of Belgorod, where pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters using armoured vehicles carried out several separate border incursions. One drone was shot down near Moscow, its mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said.

Ukraine planned to strike more Russian targets, Skybytskyi claimed, with undercover agents playing a part. Some were “Russians with Ukrainian roots”; others were non-ideological Russians recruited in exchange for payments. The “pool” was so large the HUR could pick and choose candidates for sabotage operations, he said.

But Russia’s own spy agencies were now back after a period on the back foot, the general added. They had adapted their techniques, he suggested. After Putin’s full-scale invasion, western governments, including the UK, expelled large numbers of career Russian intelligence officers stationed abroad under diplomatic cover.

There was apparent proof of the Kremlin’s renewed confidence in February when a Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine was found murdered in a Spanish seaside resort. Brigadier-general Dmytro Timkov, the HUR’s top security official, said Maksim Kuzminov had been warned not to leave Ukraine for the EU. He ignored the advice, Timkov said.

Timkov compared Ukraine to a patient on life support, in desperate need of further assistance. “We are attached to a drip. We have enough drugs to stay alive. But if the west wants us to win we need the full treatment,” he said. “Otherwise we fall down.”

[Brother Ursus]

https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-has-about-200-su-34-su-35-fighter-jets-7-a-50/

Ukrainian Military Intelligence: Russia has about 200 Su-34, Su-35 fighter jets, 7 A-50 planes

Russia has about 100 Su-35 fighter jets, more than 100 Su-34 fighter bombers, and seven A-50 early warning and control aircraft as of March, ArmyInform reported on April 3, citing data provided by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR).

Mon tro hvor mange Mig av ymse slag og andre, eldre Sukhoi de har? Disse er ikke like effektive som Su-34 og Su-35. I tillegg har russerne minst fire andre store problemer med flyvåpenet sitt: Pilotmangel, treningsmangel, vedlikeholdsslep og i nær fremtid kanskje tom. drivstoffmangel.

[Zeph]

https://www.aftenposten.no/verden/i/XbGW6o/putins-nye-vaapen-terroriserer-du-kan-kjenne-hvordan-organene-rister

Sitat

Putins nye våpen terroriserer: – Du kan kjenne hvordan organene rister

Vladimir Putins gamle bombe fra Sovjetunionen er blitt ny. Nå er den i ferd med å forandre krigen.

[…]

Billig produksjon

– Glidebombene er svært vanskelig, nesten umulig, å skyte ned, sier Haga.

Han tror at russerne har nok gamle bomber til å terrorisere Ukraina i årevis fremover. Det eneste som stopper russerne, er produksjonen av det nye vingesettet. Den produksjonen er imidlertid billig og ikke særlig komplisert.

[…]

Kommentator i The Independent Tom Watlingslår fast at de dødelige russiske bombene nå er i ferd med å forandre krigen i Ukraina. Det samme gjør The Times. For bombene var ikke bare delaktige i å ta byen Avdijivka fra de ukrainske soldatene. 

Glidebombene brukes også i de daglige angrepene mot Ukrainas nest største by, Kharkiv. 

Det kan være et varsel om hva som er i vente, mener eksperter.