Peak-Oil kommer snart

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Det som kommer til å bli herlig er kombinasjonen av olje til 30-40 dollar og en veldig lav produksjon. Peak-oil ikke som et globalt, men som et norsk fenomen.

 

 

Det er også peak oil globalt sett. Alt tyder på det nå.

[festen]

Det som kommer til å bli herlig er kombinasjonen av olje til 30-40 dollar og en veldig lav produksjon. Peak-oil ikke som et globalt, men som et norsk fenomen.

 

 

Det er også peak oil globalt sett. Alt tyder på det nå.

 

Jeg tror de utviklende markedene på et teppe av en svak dollar har økt sin etterspørsel gjennom å ekspandere mer kreditt enn de landene egentlig har dekning for. Når de strammer inn pengepolitikken i USA vil valutaene i disse landene falle sammen og etterspørselen etter olje gå ned.

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Når det gjelder norsk oljesektor så er jeg nå blitt overbevist om at jeg ikke kommer til å få mer i pensjon enn en minstepensjonist i Russland.

 

Innvandring, lakselus og tomme oljefelt. For et mareritt.

 

 

 

 

"Vi" blir rickrolled på kontinuerlig basis. Det er dårlig gjort å lure dumme folk.

Endret 12. februar 2011 av Kaarerekanraadi

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Gasskollaps i 2020 i følge Riis-Johansen. Det betyr at det skjer FØR 2020 for disse prognosene er alltid optimistiske.

 

http://www.dn.no/energi/article2082953.ece

[NothingForever]

Det jeg lurte på etter å ha lest den artikkelen er hvor langt frem i tid Norge har "lovet" Europa olje.. Snakk om å selge skinnet før bjørnen er skutt.

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Vi har vel solgt en god del bjørnebiff i tillegg til skinnet.

 

Jeg lurer på hvem som får svi? Sikkert de som har minst i Norge, som vanlig. Ingen med feit lønn fra staten.

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Oljen står i 112 dollar i dag p.g.a uro i Libya. Hvor blir det av den (ikke)eksisterende buffermengden med olje?

 

Nok et bevis på peak oil. Politikerne prøver å lure folk til at det er andre ting som er problemet, men sannheten er at vi har brukt opp ressurser. Jordkloden var ikke sareptas krukke....

[arifkarim]

På tide å gå over til ressursbasert økonomi nå?

[Kaarerekanraadi]

This shit is starting to go down.

 

For å si det på engelsk.

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Vi finner ikke mer olje.

 

http://www.e24.se/business/ravaror/usel-inledning-pa-aret-for-norsk-oljeborrning_2657233.e24

 

Må vi til Sverige for å få korrekt informasjon om norsk olje?

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Nå vil Statoil stenge Statfjord-A feltet. Hvem kan benekte nedgangen/kollapsen nå?

 

 

http://e24.no/boers-og-finans/statoil-kan-stenge-statfjord-produksjonen-i-2014/20037739

[Pseudopod]

er det ikke ganske lenge siden peak oil, da?

[Sondring]

Nå vil Statoil stenge Statfjord-A feltet. Hvem kan benekte nedgangen/kollapsen nå?

 

Midlertidig stenging for å kunne bore og utvinne mer.

IIRC, så har SFA ikke boreutstyr ombord, så toppside må rigges om for å sette igang boring - og da må produksjonsutstyr stenges ned og/eller flyttes.

[Camlon]

Jeg vil sitere hva Economist skriver om peak oil og de er ihvertfall ikke enig med dommedagsprofetene som vandrer rundt i denne traden. De nevner at tidligere anslag har vart altfor pesimistiske og bommet gjentatte ganger. Som vi ser var de nye estimatene til Campbell feil ogsa. At han har tatt feil gjentatte ganger hindrer han ikke i a spa den fremtidelig oljeprisen. Economist antar at peak oil vil skje rundt 2020-2030 om de nodvendige investments blir tatt. Det blir det sannsynligvis ikke sa jeg antar vi vil se verdens oljeproduksjon ga sakte nedover.

 

Sunset for the oil business?

 

The world is about to run out of oil. Or perhaps not. It depends whom you believe

Nov 1st 2001 | from the print edition

IF YOU think OPEC ministers are a conspiratorial cabal, you ought to meet the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC). This colourful group is convinced that the world is perilously close to an oil shock induced by scarcity, not politics. Several dozen of its members got together recently in an auditorium at Imperial College, London, for a peculiar planning session.

 

Leading lights of this movement, including Colin Campbell, a geologist and author of “The Coming Oil Crisis”, presented technical data that supported their grim prognosis. Various experts ridiculed rival analyses, done by America's Geological Survey and the International Energy Agency (IEA), that contradicted their views. Dr Campbell even decried the “amazing display of ignorance, deliberate ignorance, denial and obfuscation” by governments, industry and academics on this topic.

 

So is the oil really running out? The answer is easy: Yes. Nobody seriously disputes the notion that oil is, for all practical purposes, a non-renewable resource that will run out some day, be that years or decades away. The harder question is determining when precisely oil will begin to get scarce. And answering that question involves scaling Hubbert's peak.

 

M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist of legendary status among depletion experts, forecast in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak in the early 1970s and then slowly decline, in something resembling a bell-shaped curve. At the time, his forecast was controversial, and many rubbished it. After 1970, however, empirical evidence proved him correct: oil production in America did indeed peak and has been in decline ever since.

 

Dr Hubbert's analysis drew on the observation that oil production in a new area typically rises quickly at first, as the easiest and cheapest reserves are tapped. Over time, reservoirs age and go into decline, and so lifting oil becomes more expensive. Oil from that area then becomes less competitive in relation to other fuels, or to oil from other areas. As a result, production slows down and usually tapers off and declines. That, he argued, made for a bell-shaped curve.

 

His successful prediction has emboldened a new generation of geologists to apply his methodology on a global scale. Chief among them are the experts at ODAC, who worry that the global peak in production will come in the next decade. Dr Campbell used to argue that the peak should have come already; he now thinks it is just round the corner. A heavyweight has now joined this gloomy chorus. Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton University argues in a lively new book (“The View from Hubbert's Peak”) that global oil production could peak as soon as 2004.

 

 

 

 

A slippery slope

 

That sharply contradicts mainstream thinking. America's Geological Survey prepared an exhaustive study of oil depletion last year (in part to rebut Dr Campbell's arguments) that put the peak of production some decades off. The IEA has just weighed in with its new “World Energy Outlook”, which foresees enough oil to comfortably meet demand to 2020 from remaining reserves. René Dahan, one of ExxonMobil's top managers, goes further: with an assurance characteristic of the world's largest energy company, he insists that the world will be awash in oil for another 70 years.

 

Who is right? In making sense of these wildly opposing views, it is useful to look back at the pitiful history of oil forecasting. Doomsters have been predicting dry wells since the 1970s, but so far the oil is still gushing. Nearly all the predictions for 2000 made after the 1970s oil shocks were far too pessimistic. America's Department of Energy thought that oil would reach $150 a barrel (at 2000 prices); even Exxon predicted a price of $100.

 

Michael Lynch of DRI-WEFA, an economic consultancy, is one of the few oil forecasters who has got things generally right. In a new paper, Dr Lynch analyses those historical forecasts. He finds evidence of both bias and recurring errors, which suggests that methodological mistakes (rather than just poor data) were the problem. In particular, he faults forecasters who used Hubbert-style analysis for relying on fixed estimates of how much “ultimately recoverable” oil there really is below ground, in the industry's jargon: that figure, he insists, is actually a dynamic one, as improvements in infrastructure, knowledge and technology raise the amount of oil which is recoverable.

 

That points to what will probably determine whether the pessimists or the optimists are right: technological innovation. The first camp tends to be dismissive of claims of forthcoming technological revolutions in such areas as deep-water drilling and enhanced recovery. Dr Deffeyes captures this end-of-technology mindset well. He argues that because the industry has already spent billions on technology development, it makes it difficult to ask today for new technology, as most of the wheels have already been invented.

 

Yet techno-optimists argue that the technological revolution in oil has only just begun. Average recovery rates (how much of the known oil in a reservoir can actually be brought to the surface) are still only around 30-35%. Industry optimists believe that new techniques on the drawing board today could lift that figure to 50-60% within a decade.

 

Given the industry's astonishing track record of innovation, it may be foolish to bet against it. That is the result of adversity: the nationalisations of the 1970s forced Big Oil to develop reserves in expensive, inaccessible places such as the North Sea and Alaska, undermining Dr Hubbert's assumption that cheap reserves are developed first. The resulting upstream investments have driven down the cost of finding and developing wells over the last two decades from over $20 a barrel to around $6 a barrel. The cost of producing oil has fallen by half, to under $4 a barrel.

 

Such miracles will not come cheap, however, since much of the world's oil is now produced in ageing fields that are rapidly declining. The IEA concludes that global oil production need not peak in the next two decades if the necessary investments are made. So how much is necessary? If oil companies are to replace the output lost at those ageing fields and meet the world's ever-rising demand for oil, the agency reckons they must invest $1 trillion in non-OPEC countries over the next decade alone. Ouch.

 

Endret 23. mars 2011 av Camlon

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Portugal må ha krisepakke. Dessverre er denne pakken uten noen reell fundering.

 

Ser ut som EU-lederne prøver seg på en "spansk en". La oss håpe det beste, men min teori har vært rett hele veien: Dette er ikke en kort finanskrise.

[Hyd]

Tipper vi vil se dette med Peak Oil komme mer fram i media, eneste grunnen jeg tror at det ikke er mer synlig er fordi ingen tør og nevne det pga konsekvensene det har.

 

TU gjør en god jobb med sine artikler: http://www.tu.no/industri/article285713.ece

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Ja, TU.no har faktisk skrevet en god del om dette.

 

Jeg har selv truffet enkelte personer innimellom som kjenner til problemet og ofte har det vært ingeniører. Selv er jeg "alternativ økonom", med tradisjonell utdanning.

[Kaarerekanraadi]

Alt snakket om klimatiltak er bare en kamuflering av at energien ikke finnes. Letter da å si at vi "kutter frivillig"..... :!:

 

Kalles ikke dette decoy?

[Kaarerekanraadi]

8,5 år igjen med olje i Norge ifølge BP review.

 

http://www.nrk.no/nyheter/okonomi/1.7675301

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://oljekrisa.no/oljefall%20jun%2011.htm

[Kaarerekanraadi]

I går kom det månedstall for norsk oljeproduksjon i mai.

 

Vi er nå nede på 1.5 millioner fat.