Brother Ursus

Ble henlagt nesten like fort som det ble anmeldt

Vesten og NATO har satset på mobilitet og samhandling. Den endringen i doktrine skjedde også delvis i løpet av WWII. Som man ser på slagmarken i Ukraina har ikke det å mose nesten rent infanteri mot forsvarsverk og mobile grupper noe særlig for seg - i det minste ikke om man verdsetter menneskeliv.

Det er vel fremdeles to nye Stargate-serier i produksjon? Én animert og én live-action?

Ser jo unektelig stilige ut, men jeg er veldig skeptisk til hvor effektive disse er mot militære mål. Videoen er enten klippet sammen eller så tillater de seg å gjøre demonstrasjonsvideoer i kampområder og det er jo litt rart.

Russerne slipper angivelig FAB-3000 glidebomber i Kursk nå. Det russiske forsvarsdepartmentet er nødt til å demonstrere at de foretar seg noe - så de slipper uklokt store munisjoner på egne byer fulle av egne sivile, og viser kolonner av soldater som kan geolokaliseres av Ukraina. Komplett idioti. I kontrast har man den ukrainske siden, hvor det er nesten helt tyst.

Russland har begynt å blokkere også den krypterte anonyme meldingsappen Signal Commander of the BARS-8 unit, retired Colonel and war criminal Sidorenko Denis Evgenievich, callsign “Maestro”, convicted of corruption in 2011 and suspected of committing war crimes in the Zaporizhzhia Obl., was eliminated in Ukraine on 1 August Det ser ut til at russerne avfyrer luftvernsraketter rundt atomkraftverket i Kursk. Antagelig mot speiderdroner? Jeg sitter bare og venter på at Russland skal anklage Ukraina for å planlegge en "atomprovokasjon". For to år siden hadde kraftverket en rekke tekniske feil som russerne grunnløst kalte ukrainsk sabotasje. Russiske milbloggere mener nå at Russland taper krigen for ukrainske beslutningstagere er mye yngre (35-55 år) enn de russiske (på 60-70+)

Ikke bare Gerasimov, men hele generalstaben. De trodde nok at de var beskyttet av Vestens politiske feighet og uvilje. Men kanskje de også gjorde det for å undergrave Putin? Bare en tanke.

Putin bryr seg åpenbart ikke om menneskeliv, og hadde han kunnet slippe unna med det kunne han nok funnet på å gjøre det, men enn så lenge er han rasjonell, faktisk kynisk, og da har han mer å tape og risikere per i dag enn å vinne. Jeg tror også Putin heller stikker til Belarus, Nord-Korea eller Kina, enn å slippe bomber, om regimet hans faller. Så ja, han er en drittsekk, kynisk, kanskje sosiopat, men han er også heldigvis også relativt realistisk. Blunderen som var 22.02.2022 tror jeg ikke nesten noen kunne ha forutsett. Russland skulle i teorien vært mye sterkere enn de var.

Jeg tror ikke vi skal fullstendig underslå muligheten for at Putin-regimet kan bli så desperate at de kan finne på å smelle av et taktisk atomvåpen mer eller mindre symbolsk. Men per nå er det ikke verdt å ta den risken. Kanskje om ukrainerne nærmer seg Moskva langt inn i fremtiden. Men taktiske atomvåpen har liten militær verdi mot mekaniserte tropper og liten politisk verdi mtp. egne byer og egen befolkning, samt det globale sjokket det ville forårsake.

Hovedproblemet er at russerne ikke har fler styrker og ikke klarer å generere fler enn de taper hver måned. Og selv om de skulle velge å trekke seg ut av deler av Ukraina så er det logistisk vanskelig å flytte på dem fordi de også mangler logistikk. Selv om Putin skulle mobilisere så er det lite tungt utstyr å gi. Nord-Korea annonserte i går 1000 nye containere med våpen til Russland. Russerne går rett og slett tomme. I min oppfatning er nå atomvåpenfaren delvis over. Jeg anser faren å ha vært større de første 24-48 timene. Kreml forsøker så langt å danne en konvensjonell militær respons. Faren er ikke 100% over, men taktiske atomvåpen er ikke veldig effektive mot annet enn statiske forsvarsverk og baser. Og det ville koste Russland mye av den støtten de fremdeles har, også i egen befolkning. For ikke å nevne at nedslag ville være på eget territorium.

Ja, han var fraværende i dag, og det er svært mange som har krevet ham sparket i lang tid, inkludert Prigozhin. Spørs om de ikke må få viljen sin etter hvert. Jeg tror Putin beholder ham fordi det er en person han kan kontrollere.

Jeg var veldig aktiv på sosiale medier i begynnelsen av krigen og hadde ca. 22K følgere. Besluttet å legge ned bla. pga. trusler. Jeg sov en stund med pistolen under madrassen. Det var ikke russere, men heller nordmenn som støtter Russland. Det finnes et mindre antall av dem, men flere er helt klart psykisk ustabile og har tom. voldshistorikk.

Palle Ydstebø heter han faktisk 😄 Artikler han er i fra i dag og i går: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/i/RzjJar/ukraina-rykker-frem-i-russland-skal-ha-tatt-strategisk-viktig-by https://www.abcnyheter.no/nyheter/politikk/2024/01/14/195975192/palle-ydstebo-vi-ma-forberede-oss-pa-noe-verre-enn-bade-pandemi-og-krig

Tror du tenker på Ydstebø. Han har uttalt seg til norske medier i dag.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-army-chiefs-absence-fuels-exit-rumors-1936958 Putin Army Chief's Absence Fuels Exit Rumors Russian army chief Valery Gerasimov was conspicuously absent from an emergency Security Council meeting held by President Vladimir Putin on Friday, raising further questions as he faces mounting criticism over Ukraine's surprise incursion into the western Kursk region. Gerasimov, 68, is reported to be under fire after seemingly dismissing intelligence warnings that Kyiv's forces were preparing to launch an armored assault into Kursk, which borders Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region. Bloomberg, citing an unnamed source close to the Kremlin, reported Thursday that Kremlin officials are frustrated with his handling of the war. Similar accusatory reports regarding Gerasimov were circulating on Russian Telegram channels this week, as Ukrainian troops advanced deeper inside the Kursk region. Gerasimov's absence at the meeting of Putin's top allies was picked up by multiple individuals, including Anton Gerashchenko, a former adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, who said on X (formerly Twitter😞 "No Gerasimov this time. No mentioning Kursk region." "Observe who is here [at the Security Council meeting] and who is not," said the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Politjoystic.

Kursk er en veldig stor by og står i veien, jeg tror ikke de har tenkt seg dit med det første heller. Dette er nok mer for å tvinge russerne til å feste styrker lengre nord og omprioritere styrke vekk fra Donbas.

Det er nok absolutt en betraktning de har gjort. Høyere befal ser ikke ut til å ha reagert overhodet. De har nok regnet med at det var frihetslegionen som gjorde forberedelser til et nytt grenseraid, som varer noen dager før de trekker seg ut igjen. Det jeg gjorde når transkripsjon på YouTube ikke fungerer, var at jeg lastet ned en addon for browser som laster ned underteksten, og mater den inn i ChatGPT manuelt. Sånn er det vel gjerne med krig. Ting skjer veldig sakte veldig lenge, før alt plutselig skjer på én gang. Disse styrkene virker ikke veldig profesjonelle eller godt utstyrt, synes jeg. Det ser ut til å være mye infanteri og mangel på tungt utstyr. Og de skal passe seg for HIMARS, droner, artilleri, glidebomber og bakholdsangrep. Jepp, ukrainerne begynte å grave seg ned nesten så fort de ankom Sudzha, så det ser ut til at de har tenkt å befeste alt de tar, og lage en buffersone. Det krever en del ekstra arbeidskraft, men vil nok være verdt det siden det ser ut til at de har tenkt å bli. Om de klarer å rykke videre inn i Russland så er nok det noe de anser som bonus, og noe de gjør med mindre styrker. Jeg tror tanken er å slite ut russerne og tvinge dem til å omprioritere. Ser ut til at de ble tatt i bakholdsangrep eller pepret av HIMARS. Det er også innenfor rekkevidde av artilleri, men ingen synlige kratre eller nedslag. Imidlertid synes jeg det ser ut som om det har kommet fra siden snarere enn ovenfra, men godt mulig jeg tar feil, eller at fragmenteringsraketten eksploderte på siden av dem.

Google-oversatt.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-belgorod-region-drones-hit-russian-military-repair-base/ The Belgorod region: Drones hit Russian military repair base In the city of Novy Oskol in the Belgorod region, attack drones hit a repair base of the Russian military. The russia no context Telegram channel reported on this and published the video. According to them, the attack of seven UAVs took place around 2 a.m. on August 9. “Next to our Novy Oskol bus station is a repair base where our guys were repairing combat vehicles. Seven drones hit the hangar. The ground was trembling, the noise was very loud, and it was immediately clear that these were drone strikes!” eyewitnesses said.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/08/one-of-ukraines-toughest-and-fastest-brigades-has-joined-the-invasion-of-russia/ One Of Ukraine’s Toughest And Fastest Brigades Has Joined The Invasion Of Russia A column of armored vehicles rolling into southern Russia’s Kursk Oblast on the third day of Ukraine’s surprise attack into Russia confirms the involvement of one of Ukraine’s best-equipped and fastest-moving brigades: the 80th Air Assault Brigade. A video that circulated on social media on Thursday depicts a T-64BV or T-80BV tank, a UR-77 mine-clearing vehicles, an IMR-2 engineering vehicle plus BTR-80 and U.S.-made Stryker wheeled armored personnel carriers rolling past a busy Ukrainian mortar crew. All the vehicles are up-armored with anti-drone cages. Infantry crowd the top of the BTR-80. An 82-millimeter mortar lobs a bomb at most a couple of miles. It’s clear from the context that the video captures the early moments of a serious Ukrainian assault on Russian positions. Only the 80th Air Assault Brigade operates that mix of ex-Soviet and ex-American vehicles. Further confirmation is found in a separate video—shot by a Russian drone—depicting strikes on ex-German Marder tracked fighting vehicles in Kursk Oblast. The 80th Air Assault Brigade, like its sister unit the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, apparently operates Marders alongside its Strykers. The Marders are heavy. The Strykers are fast. They suit the Ukrainian air assault forces’ preference for swift but powerful attacks. The participation of the 80th Air Assault Brigade—one of the better Ukrainian brigades—underscores the scale of the Ukrainian operation just north of Ukraine’s northern border with Russia. In the 29 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, pro-Ukrainian fighters have launched many raids across the border into southern Russia. But these raids have been small in scale and limited in scope—and have never lasted more than a few days. More than anything, they’ve been meant to embarrass Russian leaders. The Ukrainian operation that kicked off on Tuesday is different. At least three brigades, each with up to 2,000 troops, are involved: the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades and the 80th Air Assault Brigade. Artillery, drones and air defenses are playing critical supporting roles. A column of armored vehicles rolling into southern Russia’s Kursk Oblast on the third day of Ukraine’s surprise attack into Russia confirms the involvement of one of Ukraine’s best-equipped and fastest-moving brigades: the 80th Air Assault Brigade. A video that circulated on social media on Thursday depicts a T-64BV or T-80BV tank, a UR-77 mine-clearing vehicles, an IMR-2 engineering vehicle plus BTR-80 and U.S.-made Stryker wheeled armored personnel carriers rolling past a busy Ukrainian mortar crew. All the vehicles are up-armored with anti-drone cages. Infantry crowd the top of the BTR-80. An 82-millimeter mortar lobs a bomb at most a couple of miles. It’s clear from the context that the video captures the early moments of a serious Ukrainian assault on Russian positions. Only the 80th Air Assault Brigade operates that mix of ex-Soviet and ex-American vehicles. Further confirmation is found in a separate video—shot by a Russian drone—depicting strikes on ex-German Marder tracked fighting vehicles in Kursk Oblast. The 80th Air Assault Brigade, like its sister unit the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, apparently operates Marders alongside its Strykers. The Marders are heavy. The Strykers are fast. They suit the Ukrainian air assault forces’ preference for swift but powerful attacks. The participation of the 80th Air Assault Brigade—one of the better Ukrainian brigades—underscores the scale of the Ukrainian operation just north of Ukraine’s northern border with Russia. In the 29 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, pro-Ukrainian fighters have launched many raids across the border into southern Russia. But these raids have been small in scale and limited in scope—and have never lasted more than a few days. More than anything, they’ve been meant to embarrass Russian leaders. The Ukrainian operation that kicked off on Tuesday is different. At least three brigades, each with up to 2,000 troops, are involved: the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades and the 80th Air Assault Brigade. Artillery, drones and air defenses are playing critical supporting roles. It’s more clear by the hour that what’s happening in Kursk isn’t a raid: it really is an invasion. That the Ukrainians are pouring significant resources into this invasion doesn’t guarantee its success, of course. There might be 10,000 Ukrainian troops in and around in the invasion zone. The Russian Northern Grouping of Forces, which fights along the border zone, has around 48,000 troops. But the Northern Grouping of Forces is bogged down in Vovchansk, a Ukrainian border town 90 miles southeast of Sudzha, the Russian border town that’s the locus of the Ukrainian invasion. It’s apparent Ukrainian brigades deliberately crossed the border where the Northern Grouping of Forces was thinnest. “The Ukrainian defense forces’ command has successfully achieved operational surprise,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted. Whether, and how quickly, the Northern Grouping of Forces can shift forces toward Sudzha could be the deciding factor in the outcome of the three-day-old Ukrainian invasion. If the Russians move fast, they could blunt or even reverse the Ukrainians’ gains. If they move slowly, they could lose much more of Kursk Oblast to advancing Ukrainian columns. There’s still a significant chance the Ukrainian operation backfires on its planners. If the Ukrainian brigades outrun their artillery, air defenses and logistics, they could find themselves alone and outgunned deep inside Kursk Oblast. Kyiv is risking thousands of troops it can’t easily replace. (dette tror jeg ukrainerne er fullt klare over, og er grunnen til at de ikke avanserer mye raskere som) But the Ukrainians aren’t just advancing fast, they’re advancing fast with serious firepower—in the form of the 80th Air Assault Brigade. To the Ukrainian commanders’ credit, the pace and mass of their attack has startled and befuddled Russian commanders. “A noticeable delay in decision-making by the command of the enemy’s ... [northern] operational grouping indicates a misjudgment of the likely nature of the Ukrainian defense forces’ actions,” CDS concluded.

https://www.reuters.com/world/mexico-rejects-ukraines-request-arrest-russias-putin-during-visit-2024-08-08/ Mexico rejects Ukraine's request to arrest Russia's Putin during visit "We can't do that," President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador told reporters at a regular government press conference. "It's not up to us." Ukraine asked Mexico to arrest Putin if he attends the Oct. 1 swearing-in ceremony of President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum. The request, in a statement from Ukraine's Mexican embassy dated Aug. 7, pointed to an arrest warrant issued by the U.N.'s International Criminal Court (ICC) Russia is not a member of the ICC, but Mexico is." "In June, Putin congratulated Sheinbaum, a Lopez Obrador ally, on her election victory. At the time, he called Mexico a "historically friendly partner of Russia in Latin America." Putin vil nok helt sikkert utebli, av flere årsaker, ikke minst at han ville fly langt gjennom internasjonalt luftrom mellom Europa og Nord-Amerika. Men det er bekymringsverdig at Mexico nå har en såpass vennlig tone overfor Russland.

Østlige kontra vestlige militære kapabiliteter og doktrine.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/f-16s-delivered-to-ukraine-with-advanced-countermeasure-pods-for-self-protection F-16s Delivered To Ukraine With Advanced Countermeasure Pods For Self-Protection Ukraine's F-16s came with additional self-protection features that will help them survive a very dangerous battlespace. As we reported on Sunday, after many months of negotiations and training of pilots and ground crews, Ukraine has finally taken delivery of its first batch of F-16 Vipers. These donated F-16AM/BM Mid Life Upgrade (MLU) configured jets represent a big leap forward in capability for the Ukrainian Air Force, but they will also be one of Russia’s top targets. While a wide array of weapons could become available to them, Ukraine’s Vipers have so far been configured strictly for air defense, but they are also equipped with a unique self-protection system that can go a long way to keeping Russian SAMs and air-to-air missiles at bay.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/russia-braces-for-war-driven-economy-to-run-out-of-steam Russia War Economy Set for Sharp Slowdown After Second Quarter Growth is likely to halve in second half of year, analysts say Huge government defense spending helped drive wartime growth Russia’s overheating economy fueled by massive Kremlin spending on its invasion of Ukraine may be about to cool sharply amid mounting constraints on key sectors that have bolstered growth until now. Labor resources are practically exhausted amid fierce competition for recruits between the military and businesses that’s also likely to limit further expansion of defense-related industries. The construction and banking sectors are no longer shielded from the impact of very high interest rates now that most state-subsidized mortgage programs were wound up last month.