Brother Ursus

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/08/ukraine-russia-kursk-invasion/679420/ Ukraine Was Biding Its Time While outside analysts downplayed their chances, the Ukrainians were quietly planning an offensive across the Russian border. Jeg må innrømme at det er litt deilig å få rett - særlig når det går så bra for Ukraina - i det minste så langt. Jeg stusset lenge over hvor resten av Ukrainas vestlige utstyr og elitestyrker var blitt av (kun 5-10% var tapt ifjor sommer og kun små mengder dukket opp langs fronten) og jeg advokerte i et par år nå for en invasjon av Russland - selv om det kunne koste vestlig politisk støtte. Dette samtidig med at russerne er sterkt svekket. De sliter med rekruttering, logistikk, ammunisjon og materiell. Jeg synes det burde ha skjedd tidligere, men dette var nok muligens det perfekte tidspunktet for Ukraina å invandere og snu narrativet om krigen. En slags "Hail Mary" for å forsøke å ungå at linjene fryser seg fast, og at Russland fortsetter å ta mindre territorier, selv med enorme tap. Hvor man går herfra er ikke godt å si. Det virker som om ukrainerne forsøker å bygge en buffersone, og jeg tror de vil forsøke å forhindre russerne i å bygge kraftige forsvarsverk og linjer. Hver gang de prøver seg vil nok ukrainerne bevege seg fremover. Jeg blir overrasket om ikke russerne nå forsøker å danne en linje rundt Kursk by og atomkraftverket.

Ukrainas uventede militære innmarsj på russisk territorium markerer den første slike invasjonen siden 1941. Den kom som en overraskelse både for Moskva og Ukrainas støttespillere i Washington. Katrina Malafa rapporterer at eksplosjoner ble hørt i Kyiv kort tid etter at luftvernsirener gikk av, noe som understreker de pågående farene ukrainere står overfor. Hun bemerker at slike hendelser skjer en til to ganger i uken, og frykter at Ukrainas innmarsj kan føre til hyppigere angrep fra Russland (dog med hvilke missiler? de sender jo det de har allerede) Kremls respons er usikker, men invasjonen har avdekket svakheter i Russlands grenseforsvar og kan svekke tilliten blant russiske borgere. Operasjonens hemmelighold og overraskelse har hittil fungert til Ukrainas fordel.

Tror noen allerede postet om dette, men det er verdt å utbrodere litt. Det ser altså muligens ut til å være hold i ryktene om at ukrainerne nå også beveger seg sørøstover. Kanskje de over lengre tid vil forsøke å lenke sammen med Belgorod.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/kursk-russia-ukraine-offensive-invasion-war-negotiations/ Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War. One aim of the surprise breakthrough may be for Kyiv to gain leverage in negotiations. In the space of four days, the Russia-Ukraine war has dramatically shifted. The incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia’s Kursk region has quickly turned into the largest territorial gain by either side since the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022. As of this writing, it is still unclear whether thinned-out and poorly prepared Russian forces have been able to halt the Ukrainian advance, with reports of burning columns of Russian reinforcements reminiscent of the early days of the war.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/10/7469772/ Russia does not want to redeploy forces to Kursk to avoid disrupting their offensive – ISW The Russian military command may currently be resisting the redeployment of forces from other operational fronts to prevent events in Russia’s Kursk Oblast from disrupting Russian offensive operations in Ukraine’s east.

https://www-moscowtimes-eu.translate.goog/2024/08/10/nachalnika-genshtaba-gerasimova-ulichili-vovrane-putinu-osituatsii-vkurskoi-oblasti-a139136?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov was caught lying to Putin about the situation in the Kursk region (google oversatt) Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov lied to Vladimir Putin during a report on the situation in the Kursk region, Novaya Gazeta journalist Valery Shiryaev noted. During the Security Council meeting, which took place on August 7, the military commander reported to the president that about 1,000 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had entered the territory of the Russian Federation, although already at that moment “special correspondents of Central Television or newspapers affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, such as Komsomolskaya Pravda,” named the figure more, Shiryaev noted. “The most [interesting] thing began later, when a day later official reports from the Ministry of Defense showed the figures for the loss of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region, i.e. invasion groups - a thousand people. Those. a thousand came in, and a day later a thousand were already killed and wounded, according to reports from the Ministry of Defense. <…> How is this possible? A thousand came, the day passed, and that’s it, and they are no longer there. What about the rest? Who is fighting there?” he told the YouTube channel “NO.Media from Russia.” This situation may indicate that the Chief of the General Staff either did not have the information, or “reported figures from a day ago,” or “failed to get his bearings,” the journalist believes: “By and large, it turned out that he misled the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. <…> Putin listened to unreliable information at this meeting.” During an emergency meeting of the Security Council, which Putin held on August 7 against the backdrop of the successful advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, Gerasimov promised the president that the Ukrainian army would be thrown back outside Russia. The general said that units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces “numbering up to 1,000 people” began to advance at 5:30 a.m. on August 6 “with the aim of capturing a section of the Sudzhansky district.” At that moment, he also assured that the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces “deep into the territory in the Kursk direction has been stopped.” Information about the “stopping” of the advance of the Ukrainian military deep into Russia, however, also turned out to be unreliable: the Ukrainian Armed Forces after that took about 10 more settlements (in total, at least 20 Russian settlements are now under Ukrainian control) and the Sudzha gas measuring station ", through which Russian gas is pumped to Europe. Dozens of Russian military personnel, including conscripts, were captured. On August 9, a counter-terrorism operation (CTO) regime was introduced in the Kursk, as well as Belgorod and Bryansk regions. The inability of the Russian Armed Forces to confront the Armed Forces of Ukraine made Vladimir Putin and the entire Russian command “nervous,” four senior Russian officials, who asked not to be named, told The Moscow Times. On August 10, information appeared that the Ukrainian Armed Forces, following the Kursk region, could enter Belgorod region and occupy the village of Poroz. Before this, the Belgorod News telegram channel reported that this settlement was under fire. The governor of the region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, did not confirm this information, but did not deny it either. In his Telegram channel, he wrote that in order to “accurately understand the situation,” it is necessary for “representatives of the security forces to understand it,” and “at the moment, as part of the CTO regime announced in the region, entry into the village of Poroz is closed.”

Vakkert bilde fra Morozovsk flybase som ble tilintetgjort for et par dager siden.

Ukrainsk dronetreningssenter. Wow. Håper ingen klarer å identifisere og geolokalisere.

Og det beste er at det er svært få forsvarsverk og forberedte linjer. Og nesten ingen erfarne tropper. Russland har så langt kun vært beskyttet av Vestens manglende politiske vilje.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/invading-russia-was-zelenskys-most-surprising-and-risky-decision-yet-6nbnfr7sn Invading Russia is Zelensky’s riskiest decision yet Crack troops are being used for a risky counterpunch to Putin that astonished the world — and the fingerprints of Ukraine’s president are all over it Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region last week took Moscow by surprise. It took Kyiv’s western supporters, even in Washington, by surprise as well. When it began on Tuesday it looked like another display of noisy military bravado by one of the anti-Putin militia groups. By Thursday it was clear that Kyiv itself was trying to land a strategic counterpunch against Russia. President Zelensky’s personal fingerprints are all over it. It’s been an open secret in Kyiv for many months that the president was pressing his military chiefs to launch a summer offensive. Given Ukraine’s manpower and resources problems, they were hesitant. But Zelensky is desperate to reverse the narrative that Ukraine is losing its war.

Russiske styrker var fortsatt i Korenevo i går formiddag, slik at Ukraina har ikke tatt den. Men det jeg lurer på er om Ukraina gjør det med overlegg. Jeg tror de kunne ha stormet den om de ville. Fluepapirstrategi? Eller som den amerikanske etterretningsoffiseren Nance kalte det, amboltstrategi. La dem legge hodet på den, slå til, og ta et steg bakover. Nå er det i det minste de rette byene som blir kjempet om og eventuelt redusert til grus.

Mange ukrainske profesjonelle utøvere som er på fronten i stedet for i OL, dessverre.

Russerne er militært impotente. Alt de har å svare med nå er terror. Det er slik autokrater opererer når de er i ferd med å tape.

"...arresting high-ranking generals, has now been given control over an operation that should involve the same military. I highly doubt that the generals of the Russian military will just swallow this and comply. Let's see where such decisions will lead, because, as we know, most of the coups have occurred precisely in times of war, when tensions between the various branches of government reach a critical point." Russerne fortsetter virkelig å rote til ting for seg selv.

Herlig. Russerne er desperate, og luftstyrker er én av få ting de har igjen som kan være på plass raskt og samtidig ha en viss effekt. Dermed er de nødt til å ofre en del av flystyrkene og pilotene de har igjen. Jeg tror pilotene også har ordre om å skyte seg ut om de er i umiddelbar fare, fordi Russland på nåværende tidspunkt muligens har fler fly enn de har piloter.

En aksept for ondskap. All it takes for evil to triumph.

De har elendig våpendisiplin og er dårlige på det mest elementære, så jeg tviler på at de er spesielle på noen måte annet enn i den bisarre måten. Prøver å holde et lite blikk til resten av verden og Russlands allierte mtp. krigen og eskaleringer. Bare holder det til et minimum. Tøft at Norge skal delta også. Jeg synes ikke det virker demokratisk å straffe folk for å kjempe for demokrati og mot autokrati.

https://ua-stena.info/en/lukashenko-accused-ukraine-of-violating-the-border/ Lukachenko, diktatoren av Belarus, hevder ukrainske droner fløy over eller angrep Belarus. Det tviler jeg sterkt på. Men det er unskyldningen han nå bruker for å flytte tropper til grensen. Det er tvilsomt om de vil foreta seg noe. Men Ukraina må være på vakt og ikke bli tatt på sengen slik Russland ble denne uken.

I det vestre-filippinske-hav (tidligere sør-kina-havet), skal USA, Filippinene, Australia og Canada holde marineøvelser. Kina har nå annonsert at de skal holde øvelser i samme område. Så dette kan jo bli spennende.

https://www.srf.ch/news/dialog/freiwilliger-kriegseinsatz-zuercher-berichtet-vom-horror-im-kriegsdienst-fuer-die-ukraine Sveits tar ut påtale mot 24 sveitsiske borgere som har kjempet for Ukraina. Sjelden har vel nøytralitet vært fullt så idiotisk. I dette tilfellet er justisen definitivt blind, døv og dum.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/my-daughter-and-i-are-ukrainian-when-we-met-russians-on-vacation-our-fears-were/article_d271c6ba-5599-11ef-97e8-13f651e41ddf.html My daughter and I are Ukrainian. When we met Russians on vacation our fears were realized The Russians I met were mostly young, polite, tolerant — but all of them supported the invasion of my country and did not feel any moral responsibility for our destroyed cities and the death of civilians of Ukraine. Fuck Russland. Hele landet må holdes ansvarlig.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3893757-us-expert-ukrainian-military-will-train-all-western-armies-after-war-is-over.html US expert: Ukrainian military will train all Western armies after war is over "Malcolm Nance, an American intelligence and counterterrorism expert, is convinced that after the war, the Ukrainian military will be able to train Western armies. Nance, who fought as part of the International Legion of Ukraine against Russia, said: "I want to defend your country because you are good people. You have a heart, and you cannot be defeated! The Ukrainian army, when this war is over, will train all the armies in Europe and the United States. No question about it." "Nance currently runs a think tank that analyses the fight against terrorism and is a member of the advisory board of directors of the International Spy Museum in Washington, DC. He has been in Ukraine for almost 10 months, 9 of which he spent in the army." "I took part in a counter-offensive, went behind the Russian lines with my unit. We occupied the eastern bank of the Oskil River, the eastern part of Kupiansk. I spent my 61st birthday in the counter-offensive near Kupiansk on 20 September 2022," the American said. According to him, Ukraine has become very skilled at destroying Russians. "I call it the 'put your head on the anvil' tactic. The Ukrainian strategy has been to let Russia just put their heads on the anvil and then blow their brains out. When you knock their brains out, you move back one metre. You deplete their strength so that they have the impression of progress, but then they get a mess," the expert said. Nance is convinced that Russia is losing. "Every time the media says: "Oh, Russia is winning," I think it's just the opposite: it's a victory for Ukraine, because Russia has lost 100,000 people in a year, walking three to five kilometres. What a Russian victory - are you crazy?" the soldier says. In his opinion, Ukraine should lower the conscription age from 25 to 21. "This will give you half a million more people, but you will also need weapons and ammunition. I say this all the time, including when I testified before the US Congress," he said. According to him, there should be a continuous supply of weapons and equipment, and Ukraine will win this war if it receives all the necessary weapons. Nance noted that thanks to Western weapons, Ukrainians destroyed all of Russia's modern frontline artillery, and now Russian troops are using outdated guns and prefer not to bring more modern artillery systems closer to the front line. "I think the destruction of Russian artillery is equivalent to the liberation of territories," the expert said. Ukraine is now a world leader in the use of drones in combat, he said. "The West will beg Ukrainians to teach them how to do it," Nance said. As reported, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Lebedenko said that unmanned systems on the battlefield are already more effective than classical weapons, including artillery.

Nei, som det står i lenken så dreier det seg om en liten landsby Er dette ICBM-komplekset del av atomvåpenlageret russerne var redde for at frihetslegionen skulle ta nord for Grayvoron forrige gang?