Brother Ursus

https://www.nzz.ch/english/what-would-happen-if-macron-sent-french-troops-to-ukraine-ld.1824711 Macron wants to send French ground troops to Ukraine: What to expect if strong words are followed by action President Emmanuel Macron is sending a signal of strength, but he only has two divisions of conventional ground troops. Nevertheless, his troops could take considerable pressure off of Ukraine. «Emmanuel Macron says he wants to send ground troops to Ukraine: That's not a good sign, it's a sign that the West has given up on us,» mocks a Ukrainian stand-up comedian: «The Germans aren't sending us any Taurus [missiles], the Americans aren't sending us any money, but Macron is sending his army, probably to show us how to surrender.» It is bitter humor in this third year of the war. The situation is indeed uncomfortable – in Ukraine and beyond. The Russian army is on the offensive almost everywhere along the front. Ukraine's ground-to-air defense is receiving too few supplies, which is why attacks from a distance are hitting critical infrastructure hard. Support from the West is flowing slowly. Kremlin propaganda is achieving its goal. Macron's posturing – as a boxer on social media, but also as a potential wartime president – therefore seems almost countercyclical. After the Russian attack on Ukraine, France continued to seek dialogue with the Kremlin. In terms of arms deliveries, Paris lags far behind Berlin. But now of all times, when even American aid is blocked, Macron even wants to send his own army to Ukraine, depending on how the situation develops. «The French bonsai» It is quite possible that French President wants to send a signal of strategic ambiguity: the Kremlin should not be too sure how war-weary the West really is. Even if Paris is unlikely to take such a step on its own, Macron's threat must be backed up by real capabilities. So what might we expect if Macron’s big words were actually followed by action? What would such an operation actually look like? What concrete impact could France have in Ukraine? The French armed forces are made up of three armies: the Armée de l'Air et de l'Espace with its Rafale and Mirage fighter planes, the Marine nationale, whose flagship, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, is currently cruising off the coast of Benin, and finally the Armée de Terre. France also maintains its own arsenal of nuclear weapons, the Force de Frappe. In contrast to the German Bundeswehr, the French armed forces are capable of waging war even without a NATO partner. The scale is limited, however. The Armée de Terre now only has two divisions of conventional ground troops under its command, which consist of around 20,000 soldiers each. By comparison, at the end of the Cold War in 1989, the French army consisted of three corps with a total of 10 divisions and a rapid action unit. During the war on terror, Paris reduced the hard core of its armed forces to a minimum. A paper from the French National Assembly from 2021 uses the term «French bonsai»: Everything is there, but in miniature. Defensive deployment with a maximum of one division In view of the forces and capabilities available, a deployment of the French army in Ukraine is likely to be based on the following operational assumptions: Deployment of one division: France will expose a maximum of half of its conventional ground forces to the risk of direct combat operations. The second division would stand ready as a reserve to prevent the war from spreading. A battalion (600 to 1,000 soldiers) is already permanently stationed in Romania under the code word «Aigle». In the event of an escalation, the body of troops could quickly grow to the size of a brigade (5,000 to 6,000 soldiers). Defensive alignment: With the strength of only one division, it is not possible to attack. That would require an advantage of at least three to one. There are around 300,000 Russian soldiers on the other side of the front line. It is conceivable that the French troops could act as a reserve force to relieve a Ukrainian counteroffensive. However, a selective deployment at a critical point in order to prevent a Russian victory is much more likely. France has followed the strategy of «dissuasion»: The opponent should be «dissuaded» from taking the next step. The French ground troops in Ukraine would act as a forward tripwire for the Kremlin with its own Force de Frappe as a threatening backdrop. Alliance with partners: France would not be alone in a Ukraine mission. For one, the units would have to be integrated into the Ukrainian command structures in order to provide effective added value. Moreover, France would not risk such an expedition without the support of important NATO partners. The focus here would be on Poland, Romania and, above all, the British, who are already present in Ukraine. Politically, this would likely amount to a revival of the entente cordiale between London and Paris. According to textbook strategy, the operational area of a division is defined as 50 by 30 kilometers, plus a field of «operational depth» of a maximum of 50 kilometers. More modern models focus on concentric gravity zones with a radius of 50 to a maximum of 80 kilometers. Within this space, the division is spatially and temporally superior to an opponent and could therefore fend off an attack. Three variants plus preliminary stage The Charles de Gaulle ship would be deployed to the eastern Mediterranean in support and as a projection of military strength. This would mean that some of the Rafale jets would be close to the operational area in order to control the airspace above the French focus zone. It would also be crucial to have a detailed picture of the situation, which could only be drawn up in close cooperation with NATO. France lacks fifth-generation fighter jets such as the F-35, which functions like a flying data vacuum cleaner. Information superiority thanks to state-of-the-art technology enables smaller armies to compensate for their lack of mass, in other words, to hold their own against a mass army, as Western doctrine almost imploringly maintains. The Ukraine mission would be a first test case for this theory. In concrete terms, three variants as well as a preliminary stage in the Republic of Moldova are conceivable: The first and third options would be primarily strategic and would have political symbolism: In the event of a Russian breakthrough, the ousting of the Ukrainian government led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be given top priority. If France succeeded in protecting the capital Kyiv from being seized, a quick victory of the Kremlin could be prevented. Odesa is of similar importance. The port city symbolizes the diversity of Ukraine. If it were to fall to Russia, Ukraine would lose a cultural center, which would shake the idea of the Ukrainian nation. In addition, Odesa is currently the country's most important access point to the Black Sea. If the port city could be secured in the long term, Ukraine would remain a maritime power. The Ukrainian army has already succeeded in considerably weakening the Russian Black Sea Fleet. If Odesa was safe, Kyiv could increase grain exports. This would give Ukraine more support from developing and emerging countries, which could be crucial for engendering a just postwar order. Risks for the Alpine region Option two, a special focus zone at the knee of the Dnieper River, would primarily be of military value. If the Russian army attempted an energetic advance in the southeast, the area north of Zaporizhzhia would be an operational Achilles' heel for Ukraine's defense. The city of Dnipro is a real hub in all directions of the country. A French tripwire in this area would mean considerable relief for the Ukrainian combat units on the front lines. Supporting the Republic of Moldova against Russia's hybrid war would be a preliminary stage for a Ukraine mission. The situation is currently coming to a head in the region of the Gagauz minority, which is being instrumentalized by Moscow to undermine the authority of the government in Chisinau. Even a small contingent of French ground troops could stabilize the situation. However, President Macron knows that the open use of military means outside of NATO is associated with risks. Apart from Moscow threatening to use nuclear weapons, test attacks on France with fighter jets or long-range weapons are also conceivable. One of the most vulnerable axes runs via Hungary toward the Alps. The so-called Tirol Corridor is practically unprotected from the air. In the logic of conventional deterrence, the deployment of ground troops would increase the price of further escalation, even if France does not enjoy the most solid reputation as a military power. In the past, the Kremlin has understood signs of strength better than understanding and compromise. France's military involvement would therefore probably be Europe's last chance to prevent a defeat in Ukraine and a major war. Det er verdt å minne om at Frankrike også er den eneste atommakten i verden som har preemptivt angrep med atomvåpen i sin atomvåpendoktrine. Det gjør faktisk Frankrike til den perfekte fredsbevarende styrke i Ukraina.

Tipper i likhet med andre at Girkin blir sendt på et håpløst selvmordsoppdrag eller skutt i ryggen av sine "egne" på oppdrag fra KGB.

De skal sitte i lagre rundt om i verden. Regner med at de må kvalitetsikres ved én eller annen form for inspeksjon... og så må man finne skip som er villige til å transportere dem. Men likevel, så synes jeg også det tar grådig lang tid å gjøre omtrent hva som helst her i verden. Her burde myndighetene i diverse land gå sammen om å garantere for disse skipene som skal transportere. Definitivt. Jeg har personlig også fremdeles tro på seier. Det er åpenbart en sjans for at konflikten kan låse seg fast. Men jeg regner fremdeles ukrainsk seier som nesten jevnstor, og russisk seier som ekstremt usansynelig.

For én gangs skyld er vi helt enige. Det virket også som om Lloyd Austin skammet seg over å si dette når han uttalte seg til kongressen (eller var det senatet?). Biden er livredd for høy bensinpris ved pumpene ved valget i november. Men Ukraina kan for f... ikke la det stå over sine egne borgeres liv.

Sett de to første episodene av Three Body Problem. Spennende og severdig så langt. Jeg er litt i overkant interessert i både astrofysikk og science fiction generelt, så jeg har nok en fordel i at jeg allerede lukter lunta rundt hva det er som skjer. Men kommer absolutt til å se videre

Nei, han løy absolutt ikke, han var nok bare forvirret. På portugisisk og spansk er tusen og millioner forsåvidt lett å forveksle da de har samme forstavelse.

De øker stadig størrelsen på antallet. Jeg er fortsatt litt skeptisk. Men de skal begynne å komme frem i løpet av tidlig sommer. Men så skjer ting i virkeligheten sjelden som planlagt...

Det var voldsomt til tekst i hvert fall Men om virus ikke eksisterer, hva er det da man ser under transmisjonselektronmikroskop, skanelektronmikroskopi, lysmikroskopi, immunfluorescens, cellekulturer osv.? Hva er det som gensekvenseres? Hva er det som gjør folk syke? Hva er dette?

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-equipment-loss-save-ukraine-2998167 Russia’s huge equipment losses could save Ukraine Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine could be slowed by rocketing equipment losses that military experts believe are “unsustainable”. "Russia’s offensive potential could be limited by major losses of armour suffered during recent advances. The Russian army lost almost 1,000 pieces of offensive equipment in a little more than a month to 5 April, according to researchers for open source conflict monitor Oryx, including 310 tanks and 552 other armoured vehicles." Det er nettopp dette jeg tror og håper også. Russland vil nok ha satt av utstyr til å forsøke å kjøre en vår eller sommer- offensiv, men jeg tror ikke det vil være nok. Selv mot et svekket Ukraina nesten uten granater. Vi risikerer også nå at Ukraina igjen havner i samme situasjon som i begynnelsen av krigen der russerne skyter 10 granater for hver granat Ukraina skyter. Men jeg har vanskelig for å se for meg at russerne skal gjøre spesielt meningsfylte avansement. Det vil si, at de skal ta betydelige områder eller store tettsteder, langt mindre en by som Kharkiv.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-drones-russia-tank-losses-reflects-shortages-artillery-report-2024-4?amp More than 66% of Russian tanks destroyed by Ukraine are taken out by drones, report says — that's not a good thing "While that may seem like a success for Ukraine, its heavy reliance on drones reflects its lack of alternatives."

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/brazils-president-falsely-claims-123-million-children-have-died-in-gaza-during-war-lk790wys Brazil’s president claims 12.3 million children have died in Gaza during war Jeg vet ikke om folk fikk med seg denne brøleren 😄 Jeg har møtt Lula gjennom jobb, og han var en koselig fyr, men matte er nok ikke hans sterke side. Han er også 77 år gammel - som i brasilianske skoselgerår er en del mer enn amerikanske milliardærår (Trump) eller senatorår (Biden). Spørs om han ikke mente 12,3 tusen. Tusen og million osv. er litt funky på portugisisk. Tusen = Mil Million = Milhões

Her får altså Hamas-lederen dødsbudskapet, om at hans tre barn og angivelig også tre barnebarn er drept i et israelsk angrep. "I thank Allah for the honor that my children & grandchildren have been martyred”

Ser ut til at kanarifuglen i gruven er i ferd med å dø også. Kina kjøper enorme mengder med gull. Og Iran lukker luftrommet sitt. Angivelig for "trening". Men er vel mer sansynelig at de skal skyte eller forventer å bli skutt mot.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/stoltenberg-ukraine-has-right-to-strike-military-1712768894.html Stoltenberg: Ukraine has right to strike military targets in Russia According to international law, Ukraine has the right to strike military targets in the Russian Federation for self-defense purposes, states NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during a press conference with Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Godgutten sin det. Taler USA imot når de må til 🥰

Fra uniformene får vi tro at de er medlemmer av Greenpeace også 😄

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/kEqlEk/iran-stenger-luftrommet-over-teheran-varsler-militaeroevelser Iran stenger luftrommet over Teheran – varsler militærøvelser Iran stenger luftrommet over Teheran for all trafikk. Årsaken er militærøvelser, ifølge landets forsvarsminister. Lufthansa har stanset flygningene til byen. Øvelser? Eller forventer de utgående og inkommende raketter og bomber?

Ja, altså, Joker likte jeg. Han er vel også antihelt. Men jeg stiller spørsmålstegn ved oppfølgeren dersom det faktisk er en musikal

Yep, rings of power var faktisk helt konge!! Kan ikke fatte og begripe hvordan den fikk så mye tyn, vet det var endel kontroverser før den kom, men bortsett fra det - selve serien var påkostet og akkurat hva jeg håpa på fra den serien Av alle som startet med å se på Rings of Power så var det bare noe slikt som 1/4 som så den ferdig. I streaming er retensjon, altså hvor mange seere som ser ferdig en serie, den viktigste metrikken, fordi den sier noe om hvor mange som sansyneligvis vil komme tilbake og se en ny sesong. Retensjonsraten til ROP var en av de dårligste av noen serier. Samtidig var den så vanvittig dyr. Slik at ROP er "too big to fail", men det er det den kommer til å gjøre.

Haha, jo altså jeg gleder meg oppriktig på vegne av dere som liker musikaler. Kjæresten er veldig glad i animert film, så jeg har fått med meg en del. Likte faktisk Sing 1 & 2 som jeg så nylig. Men live action musikaler av folk som ikke er sangere virker bare utrolig kleint 😄 Blir også kjedelig synes jeg om det er for mye synging. Synes som sagt bare at det er et modig, men utrolig sært valg for en oppfølger

Nå banner jeg vel i kjerka her i Filmtråden, men... med forbehold om at jeg bare har sett noen få av filmene hans (han har vel skrevet fler enn han har regissert?), så synes jeg Tarantino er ganske oppskrytt. Filmene hans er definitivt av den mer originale sorten, men ikke utelukkende positivt. Jeg har en tendens til å kjede meg og slå dem av. Smaken er som baken, I guess

Dersom Joker 2 er en musikal av et slag, så er det et utrolig sært valg i en tid da superheltfilmer regelmessig flopper. Det appellerer neppe noe særlig til den jevne DC/Joker-fan. Regissøren sier det vil gi mening når man ser filmen, men da må man allerede ha kjøpt billett Jeg er veldig skeptisk, inntil videre.

Jeg har vært Star Wars blodfan siden jeg var 4 år gammel. Så i snart 40 år. Et Star Wars spill i en åpen verden er en drøm, men ser også ut til å forbli det. Kan like gjerne gå tilbake og spille KOTOR, SWTOR og andre igjen. Det er 1400kr hvis du vil ha alt innholdet i spillet på dag én. De selger også allerede DLC på dag én. Det er og blir en uting.

Slik det ser ut nå er dette spillet mer eller mindre DOA, altså dødt ved ankomst. Ekstrem politikk injisert i narrativet og settingen Utviklerne hater sin eksisterende kundebase Grotesk prismodell Ubisoft esklusivt, ingen Steam-støtte Ekstreme mengder DRM og persistent online for et énspiller-spill Så får vi brukere og spillere bare merke oss at de som anmelder spill, serier, filmer osv. av én eller annen grunn ofte føler et behov for å unskylde all den kundefiendtlige og hatefulle oppførselen til utviklere og spillselskaper. Og så gjøre seg sine tanker om hvorfor det er tilfelle.