Brother Ursus

For Ukrainas del kan man jo håpe det. Men samtidig kan denne konflikten ta enda mer amerikansk hjelp og oppmerksomhet vekk fra Ukraina. Det spørs hvordan amerikanerne reagerer. Det var tenkt at Iran ville sende ballistiske raketter også, men nå kan de trenge også dem selv. Med tanke på størrelsen av det iranske angrepet tror jeg det er svært vanskelig for Netanyahu ikke å svare.

Ser ut til å gå mot krig mellom Israel og Iran. Mon tro hva slags effekt det har for Ukraina? Kanskje både negativt og positivt? Positivt, i at iranske raketter og droner får nye mål i Midtøsten i stedet for Ukraina. Kanskje også positivt i at verden ser at dette er en potensiell verdenskrig med større faremomenter enn bare Ukraina. Negativt, kanskje i at enda mer oppmerksomhet og amerikansk støtte blir tatt vekk fra Ukraina? Om ikke dette vekker patriotiske amerikanere til aksjon og de ser felles sak da.

Jeg tipper begge deler. Han hjelper nok Iran med etterretning og teknologi og rubler, men planen er å gå hardere til verks i Ukraina ja. Muligens etter storbyen Kharkiv, som før krigen hadde 1,4 millioner innbyggere.

Så lenge det holder seg til militære mål trenger det ikke bli "så ille". Begynner iranerne å bombe israelske byer og sivile mål så vil nok ting stå seg annerledes.

De har nok fått ganske så mange mange rubler og mye rakett og atom- teknologi fra Russland for å orkestrere 7 oktober-angrepet og nå dette.

Det er jo dette Putin ville. Det var hele poenget med 7 Oktober-angrepet. Å vende oppmerksomheten og støtten bort fra Ukraina og over på Israel og Midtøsten.

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/i/QMRxQV/midtoesten-forsker-kan-bli-farligere-for-israel-enn-noe-de-har-staatt-overfor-siden-1948 Midtøsten-forsker: – Kan bli farligere for Israel enn noe de har stått overfor siden 1948 Iran startet sent lørdag kveld sitt hevnangrep mot Israel. – Hvis Israel angriper Iran på nytt etter denne responsen, vil det bli en farlig utvikling i krigen. Da vil Iran trykke på «Hezbollah-knappen», og da er det snakk om enorme mengder raketter som vil sendes mot Israel, sier forskeren.

BBC News -Amerikanske fly er i luften

Iranske styrker (ikke Houthier?) skal ha tatt et israelsk kommersielt skip gissel ved å fire ned soldater fra helikoptre.

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/i/zA5rBv/iran-har-sendt-droner-mot-israel Irans forsvarsminister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani advarer land i regionen mot å hjelpe Israel. – Teheran vil svare kraftig overfor ethvert land som åpner luftrommet eller territoriet sitt for angrep mot Iran fra Israel, sier han i en uttalelse til det delvis statlige nyhetsbyrået Mehr. Det skriver Reuters. Dette kan bli en regional storkrig dersom andre land også går inn. USA vil antagelig også gå inn mot Iran da Israel og USA har forsvarsavtale.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/germany-emegrency-transfers-one-more-patriot-aor-defense-system-to-ukraine-amid-russian-attacks-50409797.html Germany immediately provides additional Patriot air defense system to Ukraine amid Russian missile strikes “We are supporting Ukraine as much as we can in terms of our own operational readiness,” Pistorius also said. “Before this decision was made, I already advocated that new purchases be made as soon as possible, and we are working hard to replace (the Patriot system that Germany is transferring to Ukraine).” Jo, men vi andre er ikke i krig akkurat nå, og vi har mange andre militære ben å stå på, ikke minst flyvåpen.

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia Feng Yujun says the war has strained Sino-Russian relations Artikkelen får jeg ikke lest da den er låst. Heldigvis gir Anton en oppsummering. Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun: The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad. The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective. His conclusion is as follows: Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today. Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out. The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events. After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia. Mulig dette er et rosemalt scenario, men jeg er av liknende oppfatning. Jeg tror det er en sjans for at Russland vil holde på territorier i den kort-middels tidsramme, men ikke på sikt (år eller tiår). Det er også sjans for at det blir fastlåst. Men det internasjonale samfunnet vil ikke tilgi Russland med det første, slik at ting vil neppe normaliseres slik de har blitt i Korea. Mange fremholder at Russland vil klare seg best på sikt, men jeg er ikke så sikker på det. Russlands økonomi og demografi er i fritt fall, og før eller siden vil det sosiale briste også.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-are-spoiling-russias-plans-make-its-own-airplanes Sanctions Are Spoiling Russia’s Plans to Make Its Own Airplanes "Announced in June 2022, the program calls for the state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec to manufacture 1,036 airplanes with only Russian parts by 2030. In January 2024, the state allocated 283 billion rubles (U.S. $3.1 billion) to help finance the production of 609 airplanes and prioritize medium-haul aircraft in the overall manufacturing plan." "Among the aircraft slated to replace Boeings and Airbuses, the plan called for production in 2023 of three medium-haul Tupolev-214 (Tu-214) airplanes and two Superjet-NEW planes (Superjet-100s with all-Russian parts). None of these were built. In fact, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) failed to manufacture a single passenger airplane in 2023." "The transition to total import substitution is proving difficult, making it impossible to fulfill early targets of the manufacturing plan. By withdrawing access to Western technology critical for manufacturing, sanctions have successfully shut down production. Russian manufacturers will produce at best inferior aircraft that fly shorter routes using more fuel. " "At its current rate, the UAC is unlikely to manufacture more than a dozen or so showcase narrow body airplanes before 2030."

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4591066-speaker-johnson-ukraine-aid/ Speaker Johnson’s perilous moment on Ukraine has finally arrived After months of delay, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is poised to step formally into the perilous debate over Ukraine aid — an explosive topic that carries high stakes for both the future of Kyiv’s sovereignty and the fate of Johnson’s Speakership. Since taking the gavel in October, Johnson has vowed to move another round of military help for Ukraine’s beleaguered forces in their fight against Russia. But the issue has taken a back seat to domestic concerns with hard deadlines, including efforts to fund the government and renew Washington’s foreign surveillance powers. With those priorities in the rearview mirror, Johnson is now shifting gears to tackle a package of emergency foreign aid — including new assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific allies — that’s expected to hit the floor next week, according to sources in both parties.

https://www.euronews.com/2024/04/13/how-17-year-old-ukrainian-valeriia-escaped-a-russian-re-education-camp How 17-year-old Ukrainian Valeriia escaped a Russian re-education camp 17-year-old Ukrainian Valeriia was abducted to a Russian re-education camp in Crimea. She tells Euronews how she made it back to Ukraine on her own. Lang artikkel, men interessant.

Dette ser sinnsykt ut. Det er vel slikt man gjør når man ikke har artilleri også... heldigvis ser det ikke ut til at noen i den ukrainske Humbee'n ble skadet.

https://news.err.ee/1609311108/minister-to-propose-classing-moscow-patriarchate-church-as-terror-organization [Estonian] Minister to propose classing Moscow Patriarchate church as terror organization

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-2667758086/ Trump mocked after insider admits ex-president 'couldn't get his head around' basic fact Former adviser Fiona Hill reports in a new book reviewed by the Guardian that Trump, as president, had a hard time understanding Ukraine was a country. “Trump made it very clear that he thought, you know, that Ukraine, and certainly Crimea, must be part of Russia,” Hill reportedly said. “He really could not get his head around the idea that Ukraine was an independent state.”

Bra. Nå trenger vi antipersonellminer og klasevåpen.

Jeg har ikke sagt noe annet. Men hvorfor må vi akseptere at politiske aktivister går inn i bransjer og aktivt forsøker å ødelegge tingene vi elsker? Hvis du hadde fulgt med ville du sett at personene som står bak dette selv har innrømmet at de har en politisk agenda. At du og mange andre ikke følger med på hva som skjer og tror at alt dette er tilfeldig, er deres problem.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/04/12/ukraine-teams-ancient-and-modern-weapons-to-stop-russian-trucks/ Ukraine Drops Ancient Roman Weapons From Drones To Stop Russian Trucks The Russians are facing a new threat behind the front line: tire-popping metal obstacles called caltrops dropped by drones. It is an ingenious new use of a very old weapon, which is causing problems for Russia’s already overstretched last-mile supply chain by halting vehicles so they can be hit by bomber drones.