Brother Ursus

Vi får håpe og tro det var riktig beslutning. Nå som det pågår storkrig i Europa og det er mangel på våpen, så er det ikke lurt at USAs allierte har kriger gående på flere fronter. Man burde ha nøytralisert ayatollaene og Irans atomvåpen og drone- program for mange år siden.

Irak er nesten halvparten sjia og halvparten sunni. Sjiaene er Irans allierte og sunniene deres dødelige fiender. Det var omtrent bare Saddam som holdt hele greia sammen. Irak er og vil alltid være slagmark for proxykrig mellom Iran og Saudi Arabia.

https://www.vg.no/spesial/drap-norge/ VG fortsetter å oppdatere drapsoversikten. I april har det nå vært fem drap (det siste er ikke listet) og måneden er ikke over. I mars var det også fem. I februar tre. Og i januar hele 12.

https://www.dagens.com/news/china-frustrated-as-putin-stands-firm-in-energy-negotiations China Frustrated as Putin Stands Firm in Energy Negotiations "Baijiahao reporters noted that while China is not eager to push Russia into a corner with unacceptable demands, it also will not compromise at the expense of its own interests. This deadlock raises concerns in China about the potential stalling of the project should neither side relent. The ongoing standoff has ignited a mixture of respect and indignation among observers in China, who fear that without concessions, the project might be doomed. The hope in Beijing is that Moscow might eventually make concessions." https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/21/7452296/ Russia wants to capture Chasiv Yar by Victory Day, but I’m counting on us to withstand it – Zelenskyy https://ghall.com.ua/2024/04/21/kitaj-sozdal-novoe-upravlenie-informatsionnoj-vojny/ China has created a new information warfare department under the command of the military https://kyivindependent.com/isw-ukraine-will-be-able-to-blunt-russias-offensive-if-us-aid-arrives-quickly/ ISW: Ukraine will be 'able to blunt' Russia's offensive if US aid arrives quickly https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-ukraine-krieg-sergej-lawrow-deutet-offenbar-sommeroffensive-auf-charkiw-an-a-5accf5e8-4321-4764-a9e8-3bfae135172b Lavrov apparently hints at Russian summer offensive on Kharkiv https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/21/7452272/ Each day that Russia suffers losses brings peace closer – Zelenskyy

I det minste vil amerikansk hjelp nå flomme frem mot november, akkurat når Russland håper å avansere. Det kjøper også Europa tid til å samle krefter. Men da må vi for faen gjøre det som er nødvendig også.

Ikke bra, men ikke spesielt dramatisk. Posisjonene bak elven bør være uoverkommelige.

https://www.uawire.org/former-commander-of-the-polish-ground-forces-american-weapons-are-likely-already-on-their-way-to-ukraine Former Commander of the Polish Ground Forces: American weapons are likely already on their way to Ukraine The US House of Representatives has begun the process of approving a new aid package for Ukraine, with the delivery of support already underway. Ukrinform reports, citing comments by military expert Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Polish Land Forces and former deputy minister of national defense, the first shipments of weapons are being sent to Ukraine following the House's decision. The expert believes that although the details of these deliveries are not known, the aid is already on its way, stirring both concern and fear in Russia as Ukraine is poised to receive crucial resources that could alter the conflict's dynamics. Skrzypczak remarks that the assistance, albeit drastically overdue by half a year, arrives at a pivotal time. Despite previous delays in support, the Ukrainian military has demonstrated remarkable valor and capability in defending the nation under incredibly challenging conditions. According to the expert, this support indicates two significant developments in the war: the provision of vital aid to the Ukrainian military and the United States reasserting its leadership role in coordinating the "Ukrainian coalition" of countries assisting Ukraine in its defense against aggression. Skrzypczak points out that Russian authoritarianism exploited democracy to delay support, but now the US's unexpected move suggests a shifted trajectory, causing Russia to become anxious and, crucially, to seek defensive measures. The general speculates that critical battlefield necessities like ammunition might already be on their way to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Key components, including 155mm artillery shells and short- and long-range missiles for the HIMARS systems, are expected soon, along with air defense systems and munitions vital for protecting military and civilian targets. General Waldemar Skrzypczak is a prominent military figure in Poland, highly respected both domestically and internationally. He led a Polish division in Iraq and served as the commander of the country's Land Forces. His departure from the position was triggered by a conflict with civilian ministry leaders accused of encroaching on military affairs and reducing the armed forces' defensive capabilities and power. The US House of Representatives has passed Bill HR8035 "On Additional Security Appropriations for Ukraine – 2024," proposing $60 billion in aid. It obtained the necessary majority, with 311 representatives voting in favor, surpassing the required threshold of 218 votes. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal noted that American assistance would provide a significant resource for Ukraine's victory and reconstruction. He expressed gratitude to members of both the Republican and Democratic parties for supporting the aid package. Shmyhal outlined that the aid package includes $61 billion in total, with $49.9 billion allocated for defense spending, $7.8 billion to support the budget, $1.57 billion in economic assistance, and an additional $400 million earmarked for humanitarian demining and border protection.

Budanov på sin side advarer fremdeles om en faktisk russisk sommeroffensiv. Vi får håpe amerikanske våpen kommer frem i tide.

I elvene sør for Uralfjellene fortsetter oversvømmingene. Det bristet en demning i Orenburg for et par uker tilbake som påvirket rundt en million russere og oversvømte en by nesten på størrelse med Oslo samt flere fabrikker som produserer for krigsinnsatsen. Nå lekker det angivelig en ny demning nær grensen til Kasakhstan. Kritisk nivå for demningsbrist ble nådd allerede 18 eller 19 april.

Det har heller aldri vært vedtatt så mye hjelp til Ukraina som i denne pakken pluss det EU, Norge og andre driver og vedtar om dagen.

Så vi har: Panikk i Moskva over fornyet amerikansk støtte Enorme russiske materielle tap som ikke kan erstattes Færre og eldre forsterkninger av materiell En russisk økonomi som i løpet av noen år vil ligge i grus når de slipper opp for likviditetet Totalt fravær av meningsfyllt avansement selv når Ukraina nærmest slapp opp for ammunisjon Du kan se hvor sinna russerne var på Macron også, og deres paniske reaksjoner mot ham, fordi de var redde for at Europa ville ta en større rolle og sende fler og kraftigere våpen. Kreml er svært klar over at de taper denne krigen. Russlands eneste håp for å få noe ut av denne konflikten var å låse fast både amerikansk og europeisk politikk. USA er det eneste landet i Vesten med store lagre som kan sendes i løpet av en kort tidshorisont. Europa i et lengre tidsperspektiv når vi får fabrikkene oppe og gå. Jeg håper og tror Putin og Kreml vil velge å gi seg, snarere enn å ty til f.eks atomvåpen. Men det er snart det eneste esset de har igjen i ermet. Putins eneste håp er vel nå en president Trump. Men selv Trump ville nok slite med å holde tilbake støtte fra både kongressen og senatet.

Sorry ass... men har dere vurdert å overgi dere?

Ukraina har per i dag antagelig bare igjen noen få ATACMS med 160km rekkevidde. De andre rakettene det er snakk om har altså rekkevidde på 300km. De ville ikke kunne gjøre noe med Kerch-broen, men de ville gjøre livet surt og risikabelt for alt luftforsvar, alle militærbaser, flybaser og radarstasjoner på Krim-halvøya og alle okkuperte områder og et godt stykke inn i Russland østover og nordover. Så får vi se om Biden tør.

Definitivt. Og Trump og amerikanerne må også forstå at Europa allerede gjør sin "fair share". Norges andel av BNP på forsvar er nå nesten 4%, dobbelt av NATO-målet, og Norge har allerede gitt Ukraina rundt 10 milliarder dollar, og nå skal det vedtas vesentlig mer. Med tanke på befolkning kontra USA er det tilsvarende 600 milliarder dollar. Vi gir altså ti ganger så mye per capita. Men intet annet land i Vesten har lagre av våpen som er så dype som amerikanernes.

Noe som er merkverdig i seg selv mtp. at befolkningen i utgangspunktet er 3,5 gang så stor i Russland. Man skulle tro en "overlegen" militærmakt ville kjempe minst 1:1 mot et land som var noe uforberedt og i teorien skulle være voldsomt underlegent. Men dengang ei. Russerne setter nesten null verdi på sine soldaters liv mens ukrainerne tilskriver sine soldater høy verdi. Og da forsvarer man i dybde og angriper heller asymmetrisk. Ukraina får helt klart også hjelp til strategiene sine av Vesten. Men forskjellen i strategi er enorm. Noe også en ledende kinesisk forsker på Russland skrev i en kronikk i The Economist er hovedårsak til at Russland kommer til å tape denne krigen. En ekstremt oppsiktsvekkende kronikk for å si det mildt.

Profesjonelle anmeldere må nesten ignoreres. Ofte er det bedre å flippe mynt. I følge anmeldere er jo alt Marvel lager gull og Black Panther en av de beste filmene i filmhistorien. For meg var den drepende kjedelig og klisjéfyllt.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/19/west-needs-to-overcome-fear-of-winning-in-ukraine-says-ex-us-commander Russia doesn’t have capability to knock Ukraine out of war: Ex-US commander Ben Hodges, who led US forces in Europe, says Western powers should overcome their fears of supporting Ukraine towards victory. Take the German refusal to send Ukraine 500km-range (310-mile) Taurus missiles. “That is 99 percent because [Olaf Scholz] is convinced that if [Donald] Trump is [US] president, then he will withdraw the nuclear shield from Europe and turn his back on NATO,” said Hodges, referring to the former US Republican leader who is running again this year. “Germany then, unlike France and the UK if it ended up in a conflict with Russia over Taurus, would be without a nuclear deterrent.” Or take the administration of US President Joe Biden, which Hodges described as “unduly scared”. “They think that if Ukraine liberates Crimea, that will lead to the collapse of the regime [of Russian president Vladimir Putin], or that Putin will think he has no choice but to use a nuclear weapon to prevent that from happening,” said Hodges. “I think those are two false, unfounded fears. I hope it does lead to the collapse of the Putin regime. It’s not something we should fear. It’s something we should plan.” Believing Russia’s nuclear threats is likely to produce a split in the Western alliance, with more ambitious leaders providing more provocative forms of help to Ukraine. “I think there is a very real possibility that certain European countries will insert themselves,” he said. “I can imagine Poland, even France, some others, in some way saying, ‘We can’t afford not to do it’.” French President Emmanuel Macron caused Russia to renew its nuclear threats after he suggested last month that NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine should not be ruled out. Macron’s generals and foreign policy wonks later finessed that message, suggesting NATO troops could only ever play a supporting role, and not participate in active combat. Russian forces ‘do not have the capability’ Hodges was deeply sceptical about how well Russia has succeeded in conventional warfare. Since the fall of Avdiivka in Ukraine’s east on February 17, its forces have “oozed” forward, swallowing several villages, as Ukrainian forces have performed tactical retreats. “Here we are in April, and [the Russians] are oozing out. Why is that? I think it’s because that’s the best the Russians can do. They do not have the capability to knock Ukraine out of the war.” Russia, he said, lacked the ability to equip large armoured formations that could move rapidly, with supporting artillery, engineers and logistics. “I don’t think it exists. That’s why I feel fairly confident that the mission for [Ukrainian] general Oleksandr Syrskyi for the next several months is to stabilise this as much as he can to buy time for Ukraine to grow the size of the army, to rebuild the defence industry of Ukraine, as well as give us time to find more ammunition for them. I think of 2024 as a year of industrial competition. So the army has got to buy time.” On the day Hodges spoke to Al Jazeera, Ukraine’s parliament passed a new mobilisation law that aimed to raise about 300,000 new troops and bring the standing army to 1.2 million. Contrary to the punitive measures for avoiding the draft that had circulated, Ukraine doubled down on incentives in the new law, such as free downpayments and lower mortgage rates for front-line soldiers, and a payout of $400,000 if they are killed. In what may be groundbreaking practice for a European army, Ukraine is also offering incentives for battlefield successes. “If you damage a Russian weapon you can get from 12,000 hryvnias ($300) to 900,000 hryvnias ($22,700) depending on the weapon and whether you destroyed or took it,” Ukrainian parliamentarian Yulia Klymenko told Al Jazeera. “For example, if you get a Russian tank, you get [almost] a million hryvnias. And we have enough tractors to steal things.” In the early days of the war, images of Ukrainian soldiers towing Russian tanks that had run out of fuel using farming tractors were shared widely on social media. These were reconditioned to fight for Ukraine. Hodges wants Ukraine’s Western allies to closely participate in Ukraine’s bravery and innovative spirit, rather than merely cheerleading it. The attitude he suggests is simply for allies to adopt Ukraine’s strategic objective – restoring the 1991 borders. “Nobody believes” the US president any more when he often encourages Ukraine with phrases such as “We’re with you for as long as it takes”, said Hodges. “‘We’re going to do what it takes’. That’s a statement of a strategic aim that then allows the development of a policy.” That policy should include giving Ukraine immediately any available old inventory and diverting some new weapons under construction for export. For instance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said Ukraine needs 25 Patriot launchers to cover air defence gaps across the entire country. “The Swiss are the next in line to buy 12 different [Patriot] launchers. The president can say to Raytheon, ‘I’ll protect you in terms of liability, we’ll work with the Swiss, tell them to stand fast, prioritise to Ukraine’,” suggested Hodges. Russia appears to have done something similar with India, holding back two S-400 air defence systems it was to deliver to New Delhi this year. Restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders would include winning back Crimea, the territory Putin annexed in February 2014. “Whoever controls Crimea wins,” said Hodges. “From here the Russians … can control any part of southern or eastern Ukraine.” Russia has demonstrated this repeatedly, launching missile and drone attacks on Odesa, Kherson and Zaporizhia from airfields in Crimea. Hodges clearly believes this war is winnable. He summed up his attitude: “Stop coming up with excuses, and stop our self-deterrence and hesitating.” 100% enig med General Ben Hodges. Tyskerne og amerikanerne er redde for eskalering mens Russlands militære i ganske stor grad allerede har brukket ryggen og kan som han beskriver i stort sett bare "ooze" eller mudre seg fremover som en kjøttmasse. Det betyr ikke at de ikke kan gjøre adapsjoner i fremtiden. Men jeg ser ikke noe scenarie der Russland vinner denne krigen eller tar storbyer som Kharkiv eller Kyiv. Det virker fullstendig urealistisk. Ukraina er sterkere nå enn i februar 2022, og nå tilkommer snart mer ammunisjon, F-16 osv.

Den skjønte ikke jeg heller. Håper ikke de brukte droner og ikke Storm Shadow på den, i det minste.

Denne hadde ikke jeg fått med meg. Men russiske statlige medier forsvarte altså Trumps penisstørrelse på riks-TV 😄