Brother Ursus

Det postes rykter om at en ukrainsk F-16-pilot skal være død. Ordføreren av Lutsk skal ha postet (på telegram?) at oberstløytnant Alexey Mes aka. Moonfish som var fra Lutsk, ble drept under et kampoppdrag. Noen mener da det er implisitt at et F-16 har gått tapt. Historien har imidlertid fått ben å gå på og i en annen versjon sies det at det var et rakettangrep på en flybase. Det er imidlertid ingen andre bevis for dette så langt. Den opprinnelige posten er blitt slettet. Den aktuelle obersten var en av de første som ble trent på F-16, men skal de siste månedene ha utført støtteroller, ikke skarpe oppdrag. Foreløpig vet vi ikke OM han er død langt mindre hvordan han eventuelt døde om det overhodet er sant. EDIT: Hadde det vært tilfelle at de tok ned en F-16 tror jeg det helt sikkert også hadde vært plastret utover med bilder av vraket allerede.

https://www.aol.com/news/russia-signaling-could-wests-internet-145211316.html Russia is signaling it could take out the West's internet and GPS. There's no good backup plan. Russia is likely mapping underwater internet cables, a NATO official said. The country is also believed to be behind flight GPS interference. It's signaling it could wreak havoc with the West's electronic infrastructure, experts say.

Ordvalget var nok ikke så heldig her. Black Myth er mange ting, men sjelløst er ikke ett av dem, selv om det er veldig mye de kunne gjort mye bedre og laget et 9+/10 spill om de ga det mer tid.

Ukrainene forsøker ganske enkelt å utvide frontlinjene, flytte dem inn i Russland, sette dem andre steder hvor russerne ikke har brukt flere år på å grave seg ned, samt å forsøke å skape større problemer hos fienden enn hos seg selv. Ingenting er risikofritt. Men skyttergravskrig er det russerne som har størst fordeler i fordi de har forsvarsverk, glidebomber, en fordel i antall artillerigranater, og de ikke bryr seg om menneskeliv. Om man taper Donetsk, men klarer å ta initiativet andre steder, så får det så være. Jeg skjønner ikke hvorfor folk i NAFO og Vesten skriker og bærer seg om det. Det virker mer emosjonelt enn strategisk. Det er ikke deres land. Ukrainerne har større strategiske målsetninger - bla. å berge sine liv og egne styrker og slite på de russiske slik at de til slutt vil få overtall i tillegg til overmakt.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-purchased-chinese-dongfeng-armored-vehicles/ Russia purchased Chinese Dongfeng armored vehicles 28 August, 2024 Chinese Dongfeng EQ2091XFB armored vehicle in Moscow. August 2024, Russia. Photo: Busandall/Telegram Når du kjøper A-Team-bilen fra Temu.

De siste dagene har Ukraina tatt ut en vesentlig del av russisk raffineringskapasitet. Russland hadde allerede nedlagt eksportforbud av bla. drivstoff, og bygget opp lagre med dette. Også lagrene blir nå angrepet. Bensinprisene er blant de tingene i Russland som har hatt størst prisvekst under krigen. Det til tross for lavere olje og petro- priser globalt.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/more-americans-want-the-us-to-stay-the-course-in-ukraine-as-long-as-it-takes/ More Americans want the US to stay the course in Ukraine as long as it takes "Just before the recent advance of Ukrainian forces into Russian territory, there were signs that Americans were becoming somewhat less confident about Ukraine’s prospects in the war with Russia. Add to this that the United States is in the middle of a heated election season where Republican politicians have been less supportive of backing Ukraine, one might have expected a drop in American public support for Kyiv." "The percentage of respondents who said they want the United States to stay the course in supporting Ukraine grew from our October 2023 poll, reaching the highest level in our tracking since the spring of 2023. In our latest survey, 48% of all respondents said that the United States should support Ukraine as long as the conflict lasts, including 37% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats. All these numbers are new highs in our four polls since March-April 2023." "This shift among Republicans is especially striking considering recent campaign statements by the Republican candidates for president and vice president, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. Both members of the Republican ticket have made statements opposing further U.S. military aid to Ukraine."

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-moves-90-of-military-planes-beyond-atacms-range-us-official-claims/ Russia moves 90% of military planes beyond ATACMS range, US official claims The U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) have a range of approximately 165-300 kilometers. The U.S. first supplied long-range ATACMS to Ukraine in March of 2024. Russia has responded to Ukraine's acquisition of ATACMS by moving most of its aircraft beyond the missiles' range, the unnamed official told the WSJ, citing a new U.S. intelligence report. With 90% of the planes out of reach, striking deep inside Russia with ATACMS makes little strategic sense, the official claimed. Det gjør russisk reaksjonsevne noe vanskeligere, men er også en ny sjanse som er forspilt, pga. Bidens idiotiske "deeskaleringspolitikk".

Forøvrig er det noe som heter at dersom du bekjemper fienden der han ikke er, så vinner du hver gang. Ukraina må mobilisere fler menn i forsvar, men manøvreringsstyrker hører ikke hjemme i skyttergravskrig. De kan gjøre langt mer skade andre steder. Den stadige kategoriseringen fra en del av operasjonen i Kursk som feilslått, er også å misforstå hva den forsøker å oppnå. Russerne utkjemper krigen som om det var andre verdenskrig fremdeles. Mens Ukraina har en modern, strategisk tilnærming til industriell krigføring.

Tror det er litt projisering på gang her altså i det du skriver til Drogin I min oppfatning er det du/dere som overdriver her. Ikke at det er NULL sjans for at dere ikke kan få rett til slutt, da ingen av oss som har en krystallkule å titte inn i, men det er å anse som usansynelig. Og det ville uansett ikke føre til at Ukraina tapte krigen. Kanskje kunne det åpne nye muligheter, både politisk og militært. Om russerne tar områder i øst så gir det dem paradoksalt også en grunn til å komme til forhandlingsordet, da det var det som var Putins uttalte mål. Han kan forsøke å spinne det med at "vi har tatt Donetsk og Luhansk som var målet for den militære spesialoperasjonen." I så fall vil han også vise svakhet, og det russiske folk kan kanskje pushe ham til forhandlinger. Ukraina vil ikke uten videre gå med på å gi fra seg territorie, men de kan antagelig si seg enig i en lengre våpenhvile og frosset konflikt. Tiden er på Ukrainas side.

Bruken av ordet løgn gjør det implisitt at jeg sitter på informasjon ingen andre har og likevel sier det motsatte av det jeg vet er fakta. @Drogin har helt korrekt forstått det jeg har skrevet. Jeg har heller ikke sagt at Pokrovsk ikke er viktig. Jeg har sagt at tapet av Pokrovsk antagelig ikke nevneverdig vil endre krigens gang. Hvordan skal russerne f.eks ta i bruk tog, når ukrainerne har uendelig med droner og HIMARS? Det siste de også vil gjøre før de forlater Pokrovsk er eventuelt å sprenge jernbanelinjene. For N'te gang, så gir det lite mening å sette inn NATO-trente elitestyrker i det beste utstyret ad hoc på østfronten hvor de kvernes ned, i likhet med russiske elitestyrker. Jeg synes du og mange NAFO-folk har et myopisk syn på verdien av østfronten. Det handler nok mest om prestisje og emosjonell investering over tid. At ukrainerne som står og kjemper der klager er naturlig. Men de har heller ikke hele bildet. Det viktigste de gjør er ikke å holde territorier, men å holde tilbake, og drepe, russiske soldater. Russerne er fortsatt et godt stykke unna, har til gode å innta byen, vil sansyneligvis tape masse på å gjøre det, og i BESTE fall vil de ved å ta Pokrovsk og større områder rundt strekke sine egne styrker ytterligere, som antagelig er nøyaktig det Syrskyi prøver å oppnå.

Mens jeg sitter og ser på video av russernes reaksjoner på det som skjer i Kursk, så slår det meg at sytingen og konspirasjonsteoriene deres, på mange måter ligner tyskernes, i mellomkrigstiden.Argumentene er urovekkende like. "Vi ble forrådt innenfra!" "Vestmaktene løy for oss!" "Det som skjedde i den kalde krigen var ikke rettferdig!" "Vi ble lurt!" "Vi er et stort folkeslag!" "Det er eliten sin skyld!"

https://www.dagens.com/war/wagner-veteran-receives-23-year-sentence-for-murder-then-returns-back-to-war Wagner Veteran Receives 23-Year Sentence for Murder, Then Returns Back to War Ivan Rossomakhin, a former inmate who fought for the Wagner Group in Ukraine, has signed a new contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense and is heading back to the front lines. This comes after Rossomakhin was convicted of murdering an 85-year-old woman and sentenced to 23 years in a strict-regime colony, according to Meduza. Rossomakhin, 29, first received a 14-year sentence in 2020 for murder. However, he was released early to join the Wagner Group after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. After returning to his village of Novy Burets in March 2023, locals reported that Rossomakhin had been acting erratically, threatening neighbors while brandishing farm tools. Charged with Rape and Murder Just a week after his return, he was charged with the rape and murder of Yulia Buyskikh, an elderly woman from the nearby city of Vyatskiye Polyany. Authorities charged him with making threats, rape, and murder with particular cruelty. In April 2024, he was sentenced to 22 years in a strict-regime colony, but this was increased to 23 years following an appeal. He was also ordered to pay the victim's family 2 million rubles (approximately $25,000) in moral damages. Human rights activists have raised concerns, highlighting that Rossomakhin did not spend even six months in prison before being sent back into a war zone. The recruitment of prisoners for combat roles in Ukraine has been a controversial practice since the summer of 2022. Initially organized by the Wagner Group, it has since expanded to include enlistments under the Russian Ministry of Defense, offering pardons and financial compensation in exchange for service.

https://kyivindependent.com/norway-energy-sector-threat-of-russian-sabotage/ Norway's energy sector under threat of Russian sabotage, Norwegian security chief says Norway's energy sector is under threat of sabotage from Russia, Norwegian security chief Beate Gangaas told Reuters on Aug. 27, as European security services briefed Norwegian energy officials on potential Russian threats. Norway is a key provider of oil, gas, and electricity for Europe, overtaking Russia as Europe's top gas supplier in 2022. "When we are talking about sabotage today, we are talking about Russia," Gangaas told Reuters. Vice Admiral Nils Andreas Stensoenes, the head of the Norwegian Intelligence Service, told Reuters that although there has been no "concrete evidence" of Russian plans to sabotage Norway's infrastructure, "it's wise to be prudent and increase the level of security." According to Reuters, the briefing was a closed-door meeting attended by security services from Norway, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, and Iceland. Western intelligence officials have repeatedly warned about the increasing threat of Russian sabotage operations across Europe. Reports emerged in 2023 that Russia may be preparing to sabotage wind farms, gas pipelines, and power and internet cables in the waters around Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden. Three Russian intelligence officers were expelled from Norway in April 2022, followed by another 15 in April 2023. The intelligence officers were expelled for "engaging in activities that are not compatible with their diplomatic status," the Norwegian Foreign Ministry said.

https://www.uawire.org/china-and-saudi-arabia-halt-crucial-mdi-chemical-shipments-to-russia-amid-sanctions China and Saudi Arabia halt crucial MDI chemical shipments to Russia amid sanctions In a significant development, China and Saudi Arabia have stopped the supply of irreplaceable chemical products to Russia. Currently, Russia is entirely dependent on imported MDI, especially following the European Union's 14th sanctions package. According to the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, Chinese giant Wanhua Chemical Group and Saudi firm Sadara Chemical have ceased shipments of isocyanates (MDI) to Russia. This chemical is crucial in sectors like automotive, construction, and household appliance manufacturing. The halting of MDI supplies leaves Russia in a critical position as the country depends entirely on these imports. Following the recent European Union sanctions, EU, US, and Japanese companies also stopped exporting MDI to Russia. Given MDI's short shelf life, prolonged shipments via intermediaries from third countries are not feasible, making sanctions evasion increasingly difficult. Despite plans to initiate domestic MDI production back in 2014, Russia has failed to establish even a single full-scale plant in the past decade. In light of China and Saudi Arabia's decision, 20 major Russian automotive, construction, and household appliance manufacturers have jointly written to the government, urging immediate action. Isocyanates are organic compounds derived from isocyanic acid and are mainly used in industrial applications with polyatomic alcohols for polyurethane synthesis. Methyl isocyanate is also used in pesticide synthesis. Brukes altså særlig i skum, belegg, lim, tetningsmidler, biler, tekstiler, elektronikk, medisinsk utstyr, sport- og fritidsutstyr og byggematerialer.

https://www.twz.com/air/electronic-warfare-systems-on-ukraines-f-16s-getting-specially-tuned-to-russian-threats-by-usaf Electronic Warfare Systems On Ukraine’s F-16s Getting Specially Tuned To Russian Threats By USAF The U.S. is using its highly classified threat library to improve the chances of survival for Ukraine's F-16 and to gather critical intel in return. De ukrainske F-16 flyene er også utstyrt med EW-pods for elektronisk krigføring.

https://global.espreso.tv/russia-ukraine-war-belarusian-military-is-negative-about-getting-involved-in-war-against-ukraine-tsikhanouskayas-adviser-viacorka (espreso er en ukrainsk TV-kanal) Belarusian military is negative about getting involved in war against Ukraine - Tsikhanouskaya’s adviser Viačorka "We have a lot of volunteers who collect this information, we also have contacts in the Belarusian Armed Forces who leak information, and we have a monitoring group called Belarusian Hajun. If you want to transfer a significant number of troops to Belarusian territory, it takes at least 2-3 days. And as a rule, the railroad guerrillas who work, will know this in advance when there is a massive transfer of troops or equipment. So far, the equipment has mostly been transferred from Belarus to Russia to the front line, and not vice versa - from Russia to Belarus. Now there are not many Russian troops in Belarus, a little more than a thousand people, only a couple of Russian planes are stationed on Belarusian territory, and a couple of thousand Belarusian soldiers who do not really have modern equipment and weapons to pose any threat to Ukraine. But when this situation changes, we will inform Ukraine and our Ukrainian partners about it, and our contacts in the Armed Forces are keeping abreast of this matter," he said. Franak Viačorka noted that Belarus needs much more military personnel to be involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. "But we know firsthand that the mood within the Belarusian military is very negative about the possible involvement of the Belarusian army in the war against Ukraine. And we know that compared to 22 years ago, the morale of the Belarusian military is much worse now. I can't even imagine mobilization, in order to carry out any provocation or operation on the border with Ukraine, you need 2-3-5 times more military in the Armed Forces of Belarus, and to do this, you need to mobilize Belarusians. When it starts, it will simply cause chaos and destabilization inside the country. On the other hand, it may also give us, the democratic forces, a new window of opportunity," said the advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. After the start of the operation in the Kursk region, Belarus deployed at least 1,000 troops to the Gomel region bordering Ukraine. On August 25, it became known that the Armed Forces of Belarus were moving a significant number of personnel to the border with Ukraine under the guise of exercises. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called for an end to unfriendly actions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crrlnl2vqe2o Ukraine to present 'victory plan' to US - Zelensky Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said his troops' incursion into Russia's Kursk region is part of a "victory plan" that he will present to US President Joe Biden next month. Speaking at a forum on Tuesday, President Zelensky said the success of the plan would depend on President Biden and on whether the US would give Ukraine "what is in this plan or not, [and] whether we will be free to use this plan, or not". "It may sound too ambitious for some, but it is an important plan for us," he added, saying that he would also show the plan to both US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. A number of Ukrainian troops made an incursion into Russia's Kursk region in early August, and Russia has so far seemingly been unable to repel them. Speaking at the same forum, Ukraine's Kyiv's top military commander, Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Ukraine now controls 1,294 sq km (500 sq miles) of Russian territory and 100 settlements - although these figures have not been verified by the BBC. Gen Syrskyi said Ukraine had no intention of holding on to the territory and that one motivation for the incursion was to distract Russia's forces away from their own offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russia is seeking to capture the town of Pokrovsk, which is an important hub and home to a key railway station. President Zelensky also revealed that Ukraine had recently carried out the first successful test of a domestically-produced ballistic missile. He congratulated his country's defence industry, but declined to share any more details of the missile. Although Ukraine has already used some ballistic missiles against Russia that were provided by the US, it has been working to develop the domestic production of military hardware to diminish its dependency on Western aid. However, for now, Ukraine mostly relies on military supplies from abroad to fight Russia and repel its attacks. At the forum, President Zelensky said that Ukraine had used some newly arrived F-16 fighter jets sent by Western countries in order to intercept some of the missiles fired by Russia in recent days - but that the country would need more jets. For the past two nights, Russia has pummelled Ukraine with a barrage of drone and missile attacks which have left several people dead and caused blackouts in various areas of the country. Such attacks show that Moscow has no intention to stop the war, President Zelensky said: "When they want [peace talks], they don’t launch 230 air strikes." Since the Kursk incursion, however, Russia has signalled it will not engage in any peace talks with Ukraine. "The topic of negotiations at the moment has pretty much lost its relevance," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.

Jeg vet ikke helt. Jeg synes det virker som om han mener alvor med det han sier. Han presenterte jo også dette tullet i FN.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-vidbudova/3899347-ukraine-expects-to-receive-300b-in-frozen-russian-assets-shmyhal.html Ukraine will receive by year-end the first $50 billion taken from Russian assets immobilized abroad. These funds can be directed both to war damage compensation and defenses. This was stated by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, who spoke at a panel discussion within the Ukraine 2024.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/26/anticipating-war-through-2025-ukraine-is-standing-up-new-mechanized-brigades/ Anticipating War Through 2025, Ukraine Is Standing Up New Mechanized Brigades These brigades will need thousands of troops and thousands of vehicles. The Ukrainian army is standing up new mechanized brigades. It’s a sign Ukraine’s leaders don’t expect Russia’s wider war on Ukraine to end anytime soon. It could be months before the first of the new 2,000-person brigades has filled all its billets—and months longer before the brigades are ready for combat. Militaryland, which closely tracks Ukrainian military force structure, obtained photos purporting to depict trainees belonging to the new 160th Mechanized Brigade. According to Militaryland, the new mechanized brigades—all of them with designations in the 160s—will train in foreign countries and draw many of their recruits from Ukrainians living in those same countries. The 160th Mechanized Brigade is reportedly training in Poland. The creation of new brigades is contingent on two things: the successful mobilization of perhaps 10,000 or more new recruits and continuing foreign support for Ukraine’s war effort. The mobilization is the source of the new brigades’ manpower; foreign allies will probably provide the bulk of their heavy weaponry. The formation of the 160s-series brigades comes three months after the previous army expansion wrapped up. Starting last fall, the Ukrainian army formed 10 new brigades: four mechanized brigades, five infantry brigades and a jaeger brigade. The infantry brigades are the lightest—they mostly ride in trucks. The jaeger brigade is a middleweight force with a mix of trucks and light armored vehicles. The mechanized brigades are the heaviest: they ride in tracked and wheeled armored vehicles and usually travel with a company of at least a dozen tanks. It’s unclear how many 160-series brigades the army is currently forming and what kinds of brigades they’ll be. If the previous round of army expansion is any indication, there could be 10. On paper, 10 brigades need 20,000 troops. Ukraine’s controversial mobilization law, which entered into force in May, aims to bring another half million people into the million-person armed forces by lowering the draft age from 27 to 25, adding penalties for draft evasion and offering more incentives to volunteers. The various ground forces—the army, marine corps, territorials, national guard and special units of the border service—oversee around 100 combat brigades and account for the majority of military personnel. The ground forces have also suffered the majority of Ukraine’s combat losses, including potentially 60,000 fatalities through the spring, if The Washington Post’s reporting is accurate. Ukraine must mobilize enough troops to make good losses across the armed forces while also adding troops for the new brigades and any support units they require. That’s easier said than done in a country of just 38 million that’s already supporting a million-person military. It’s not for no reason the Ukrainian defense ministry reportedly plans to draw recruits from the large pool of Ukrainians living abroad. Around 768,000 Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 64 had been granted temporary protection in European Union countries as of late last year, according to EU figures obtained by the Associated Press. Sourcing armored vehicles might be equally difficult—and it’s not clear Ukraine could do it without enduring foreign support. A mechanized brigade needs several hundred vehicles including tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers, rocket launchers, air-defense systems, engineering vehicles and trucks. Ten brigades would need thousands of vehicles. To put that into perspective, in the first 29 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukraine’s allies have pledged around 12,000 vehicles to the war effort. Not all of those vehicles are available for new units: they’re replacing the approximately 6,400 vehicles Ukraine has lost in those 29 months. If the formation of the 150-series brigades is any indication, it could be six months or longer before the 160-series brigades are ready for action. In other words, these are 2025 brigades—the units that might fight in the fourth year of the wider war.

Ukraina har hatt en vellykket test med et egenprodusert langtrekkende ballistisk missil.

Tenk at Lavrov én gang var en respektert statsmann. Og nå er han redusert til patetiske å syte på vegne av Putin, som ikke kan syte selv, uten å miste ansikt.